AS Roma vs Real Madrid – 14 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Wed, Oct 14 · 20:00 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

AS Roma 23rd · 1 pts · 1 played D

3–4Full time

Real Madrid 16th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid were slight favourites.

Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 75). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for AS Roma. AS Roma were without M. Svilar and B. Cristante. AS Roma had 3.4 days of rest, Real Madrid 4 and had to travel 1,365 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,365 kmRest days3.4 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 1

AS Roma34%

Draw23%

Real Madrid43%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.72

AS Roma31%

Draw26%

Real Madrid43%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.48

AS Roma35%

Draw24%

Real Madrid42%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.66

AS Roma26%

Draw22%

Real Madrid52%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.93

AS Roma33%

Draw23%

Real Madrid43%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.70

Over 2.5 62% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

20°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 56%

Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 139

Team strength

AS Roma

Real Madrid

75 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

72 AttackIn forecast 89

75 DefenceIn forecast 85

78 Form indexContext 91

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AS Roma

Attack−37%

Defense risk+69%

Real Madrid

Attack−14%

Defense risk+24%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

AS Roma

Real Madrid

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

2.19 xGVia Att/Def 2.37

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

90% Scored inContext 90%

60% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.60 ShotsContext 17.20

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.30

36% On target shareContext 42%

11.90 Shots in the boxContext 12.40

71% Box shareContext 71%

13% ConversionContext 15%

3.11 OffsidesContext 2.78

9.90 Shots allowedContext 13.30

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

2.38 BlocksContext 3.50

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

79% Save rateContext 76%

57% PossessionIn forecast 52%

522 PassesContext 519

454 Accurate passesContext 466

87% Pass accuracyContext 90%

7.06 Team ratingContext 7.13

12.60 FoulsContext 8.50

10.70 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AS Roma WDWDD

Rest3.4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,030 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected

D11 OctA · Como0–01.4 xPts
D19 SepH · Inter2–21.6 xPts
W14 SepA · Torino2–02.1 xPts
D10 SepA · Fenerbahce1–11.7 xPts
W5 SepH · Atalanta2–12.1 xPts

Real Madrid WWWLW

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,365 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected

W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts
W12 SepH · Rayo Vallecano4–12.5 xPts
W8 SepH · Inter2–12.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AS Roma	Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.4Serie A 2026-2027, 11 Oct	4La Liga 2026-2027, 10 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,365 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,030 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

95P. Gollini(G)

22Hermoso 5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini

20N. Molina 17K. Koné 15M. de Roon 43Wesley

21P. Dybala 18M. Soulé

14D. Malen

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Madrid Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1T. Courtois(G)

17Marc Cucurella 22A. Rüdiger 16I. Konaté 24D. Dumfries

14A. Tchouaméni 8F. Valverde

7Vinícius 5J. Bellingham 25Y. Diomande

10K. Mbappé

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AS Roma Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals

Attack line −11.1% · Defence line −25.3% of weighted minutes

DEF M. Svilar Starter 7.02 Def −17.5%
MID B. Cristante Starter 7.02 Att −11.1% Def −7.6%
DEF K. Koulierakis Depth 6.55 Def −0.2%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): Muhammed Bah

Real Madrid Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals

Attack line −1.5% · Defence line −4.6% of weighted minutes

DEF Raúl Asencio Rotation 6.86 Def −2.9%
DEF Éder Militão Rotation 7.09 Def −1.4%
ATT Rodrygo Rotation 7.09 Att −1.5%
DEF F. Mendy Depth 6.47 Def −0.3%

Total impact vs full squads

AS Roma-1.2 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Real Madrid+1.6 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

AS Roma · Home No home games yet this season.

Real Madrid · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	AS Roma	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	3.00	3.22
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	62%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	64%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	AS Roma	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	2.50
Conceded per game	0.60	1.10
Match goals	2.80	3.60	3.22
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	62%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	64%
Clean sheets	60%	20%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AS Roma	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.00
Corners conceded	1.00	11.00
Match total	4.00	15.00	9.36
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	4.00	3.00
Match total	6.00	4.00	3.82
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	AS Roma	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	6.11
Corners conceded	2.80	4.89
Match total	8.10	11.00	9.36
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.20
Opponent cards	2.40	2.50
Match total	4.20	4.70	3.82
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · François Letexier France · 139 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.01league 3.62

Red cards0.25league 0.17

Cards 5+44%league 38%

Fouls22.2league 22.8

Penalties0.34league 0.21

Home wins50%league 59%

AS Roma2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W20 Feb 25H · FC Porto3–22
L9 Nov 23A · Slavia Praha0–22

Real Madrid4 with this referee

Record2-0-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.8 Pens for · against1 · 2

W17 Feb 26A · Benfica1–02
L16 Apr 25H · Arsenal1–23
L27 Nov 24A · Liverpool0–24
W29 Nov 23H · Napoli4–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.