Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 74). Aston Villa had 2.8 days of rest, Bournemouth 6.9 and had to travel 196 km.
Away travel196 kmRest days2.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
Aston Villa51%
Draw24%
Bournemouth25%
Aston Villa49%
Draw26%
Bournemouth25%
Aston Villa50%
Draw25%
Bournemouth25%
Aston Villa43%
Draw25%
Bournemouth31%
Aston Villa50%
Draw26%
Bournemouth25%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereeJohn Brooks
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 88
Team strength
Aston Villa
Bournemouth
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
83
AttackIn forecast
83
78
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBournemouth
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaBournemouth
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
50%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.30
ShotsContext
12.00
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
30%
On target shareContext
38%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
58%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.50
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.50
BlocksContext
3.00
2.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
66%
Save rateContext
67%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
445
PassesContext
431
381
Accurate passesContext
352
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.70
FoulsContext
12.40
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.10
ShotsContext
12.00
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
39%
On target shareContext
38%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
59%
Box shareContext
57%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.00
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.11
BlocksContext
3.00
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
78%
Save rateContext
67%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
454
PassesContext
431
395
Accurate passesContext
352
87%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.11
FoulsContext
12.40
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km252 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Bournemouth
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel196 km616 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Bournemouth |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 196 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 252 km | 616 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
10E. Buendía
24A. Onana
44B. Kamara
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
27M. Rogers
Bournemouth
Confirmed XI
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
5M. Senesi
44V. Milosavljević
15A. Smith
12T. Adams
8A. Scott
16M. Tavernier
19J. Kluivert
24A. Semenyo
9Evanilson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bournemouth
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Bournemouth-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
2.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.00
Bournemouth · Away
1.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 2.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | L 0–2 A | L 2–4 A |
| Manchester City | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Fulham | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Crystal Palace | L 0–3 H | D 3–3 A |
| Newcastle | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game | 8 of 18 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Aston Villa wins2 draws1 Bournemouth wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 10 May 2025Bournemouth0–1Aston Villa
- 26 Oct 2024Aston Villa1–1Bournemouth
- 21 Apr 2024Aston Villa3–1Bournemouth
- 3 Dec 2023Bournemouth2–2Aston Villa
- 18 Mar 2023Aston Villa3–0Bournemouth
- 6 Aug 2022Bournemouth2–0Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 10.11 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.50 | 3.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Aston Villa | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 10.11 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.50 | 3.68 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · John Brooks 88 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.36league 3.58
Red cards0.11league 0.10
Cards 5+48%league 38%
Fouls22.8league 21.9
Penalties0.23league 0.17
Home wins55%league 51%
Aston Villa8 with this referee
Record6-1-1
Cards · opp.3.4 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Jan 24H · Newcastle1–34
- W6 Dec 23H · Manchester City1–02
- W29 Oct 23H · Luton3–13
- D20 May 23A · Liverpool1–15
- W15 Apr 23H · Newcastle3–01
Bournemouth6 with this referee
Record3-0-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W4 Jan 25H · Everton1–02
- L24 Sep 23A · Brighton1–33
- L6 May 23H · Chelsea1–31
- W11 Mar 23H · Liverpool1–02
- L19 Oct 22H · Southampton0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 10
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
