Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Aston Villa
1st · 12 pts · 5 played
WWWWL
First leg0–1
4–0Full time
Nottingham Forest
3rd · 10 pts · 5 played
LWDWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Nottingham Forest. Aston Villa had 4 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 3.2 and had to travel 73 km.
Away travel73 kmRest days4 · 3.2Matches / 14d3 · 3
Aston Villa36%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest38%
Aston Villa47%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest27%
Aston Villa34%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest39%
Aston Villa29%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest45%
Aston Villa35%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest38%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereeGlenn Nyberg
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 39
Team strength
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
83
AttackIn forecast
68
78
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
0.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.78
Goals minus xGContext
-0.50
80%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.20
ShotsContext
15.60
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
37%
On target shareContext
33%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
66%
Box shareContext
66%
22%
ConversionContext
6%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.80
10.80
Shots allowedContext
10.40
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
3.80
BlocksContext
2.80
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
78%
Save rateContext
81%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
393
PassesContext
468
329
Accurate passesContext
394
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.92
11.40
FoulsContext
11.00
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.74
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.10
ShotsContext
11.60
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
35%
On target shareContext
41%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
61%
Box shareContext
67%
16%
ConversionContext
18%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.00
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.90
BlocksContext
3.70
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
71%
Save rateContext
89%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
425
PassesContext
399
362
Accurate passesContext
326
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.06
9.80
FoulsContext
11.60
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km471 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Nottingham Forest
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel73 km785 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Moderate · 23 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Premier League 2025-2026, 3 May | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 4 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 73 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 471 km | 785 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 7 | 2 / 3 / 7 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
3V. Lindelöf
10E. Buendía
27M. Rogers
7J. McGinn
11O. Watkins
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
27S. Ortega(G)
3N. Williams
4Morato
31N. Milenković
23Jair
24J. McAtee
8E. Anderson
16N. Domínguez
21O. Hutchinson
19Igor Jesus
11C. Wood
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+1.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Nottingham Forest-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Nottingham Forest · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Aston Villa wins2 draws3 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game1.56 – 1.22
Over 2.544%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 30 Apr 2026Nottingham Forest1–0Aston Villa
- 12 Apr 2026Nottingham Forest1–1Aston Villa
- 3 Jan 2026Aston Villa3–1Nottingham Forest
- 5 Apr 2025Aston Villa2–1Nottingham Forest
- 14 Dec 2024Nottingham Forest2–1Aston Villa
- 24 Feb 2024Aston Villa4–2Nottingham Forest
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.40 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 10.20 | 8.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 1.80 | 2.80 | 4.39 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.50 | 8.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.80 | 4.39 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Glenn Nyberg 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.31league 4.23
Red cards0.10league 0.27
Cards 5+31%league 58%
Fouls22.4league 25.8
Penalties0.26league 0.31
Home wins44%league 50%
Aston VillaNo previous matches with this referee.
Nottingham ForestNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa5 games · scored 10 · conceded 2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Nottingham Forest5 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
2
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 21 · conceded 5
4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
1
31-45
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
