Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 62). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Tottenham. Aston Villa had 3 days of rest, Tottenham 8.2 and had to travel 163 km.
Away travel163 kmRest days3 · 8.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Aston Villa56%
Draw22%
Tottenham21%
Aston Villa60%
Draw23%
Tottenham17%
Aston Villa55%
Draw23%
Tottenham22%
Aston Villa48%
Draw24%
Tottenham28%
Aston Villa55%
Draw24%
Tottenham22%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereeSamuel Barrott
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 82
Team strength
Aston Villa
Tottenham
83
L90 StrengthIn forecast
62
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
83
AttackIn forecast
56
78
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTottenham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaTottenham
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.26
1.24
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
71%
Scored inContext
79%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
12.76
ShotsContext
11.21
4.35
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.91
34%
On target shareContext
35%
8.24
Shots in the boxContext
7.85
62%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.85
OffsidesContext
1.82
12.74
Shots allowedContext
12.71
4.35
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.18
3.94
BlocksContext
3.55
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.81
71%
Save rateContext
64%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
453
PassesContext
409
386
Accurate passesContext
332
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.88
FoulsContext
11.88
12.79
Fouls sufferedContext
9.97
1.53
Yellow cardsContext
2.53
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.50
ShotsContext
11.90
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
34%
On target shareContext
43%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
64%
Box shareContext
69%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
1.20
OffsidesContext
1.38
11.70
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.90
BlocksContext
4.20
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
74%
Save rateContext
52%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
433
PassesContext
372
370
Accurate passesContext
296
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.69
9.80
FoulsContext
14.10
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km471 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Tottenham
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel163 km363 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
Tottenham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 30 Apr | 8.2Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 163 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 471 km | 363 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
22I. Maatsen
5T. Mings
3V. Lindelöf
2M. Cash
8Y. Tielemans
26L. Bogarde
27M. Rogers
6R. Barkley
19J. Sancho
18T. Abraham
Tottenham
Confirmed XI
31A. Kinský(G)
13I. Udogie
37M. van de Ven
4K. Danso
23Pedro Porro
30R. Bentancur
6João Palhinha
11M. Tel
22C. Gallagher
39R. Kolo Muani
9Richarlison
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Tottenham
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Tottenham-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
2.06points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-2-4
- Scored
- 1.59
- Conceded
- 1.06
Tottenham · Away
1.35points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-6
- Scored
- 1.35
- Conceded
- 1.35
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Sunderland | W 4–3 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A |
| West Ham | W 2–0 HW 3–2 A | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Manchester United | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Chelsea | L 1–4 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Wolves | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Leeds | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Brighton | W 1–0 HW 4–3 A | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Bournemouth | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Brentford | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Newcastle | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Everton | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 A |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 AL 0–3 H | L 1–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Arsenal | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H | L 1–4 HL 1–4 A |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Manchester City | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Burnley | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Points | 55 of 99 · 1.67 per game | 34 of 99 · 1.03 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
6 Aston Villa wins0 draws4 Tottenham wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.80
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 10 Jan 2026Tottenham1–2Aston Villa
- 19 Oct 2025Tottenham1–2Aston Villa
- 16 May 2025Aston Villa2–0Tottenham
- 3 Nov 2024Tottenham4–1Aston Villa
- 10 Mar 2024Aston Villa0–4Tottenham
- 26 Nov 2023Tottenham1–2Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.24 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 2.62 | 2.82 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 65% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 59% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 21% | |
| Games | 34 | 34 |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.80 | 3.19 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.24 | 5.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.91 | 4.72 | |
| Match total | 10.15 | 10.31 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 25/33 | 59% 19/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 22/33 | 53% 17/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 16/33 | 44% 14/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.56 | 2.65 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.47 | 1.82 | |
| Match total | 4.03 | 4.47 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 22/34 | 68% 23/34 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 13/34 | 56% 19/34 | |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 10.10 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 4.80 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Samuel Barrott 82 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.78
Red cards0.06league 0.12
Cards 5+29%league 38%
Fouls20.2league 21.5
Penalties0.23league 0.21
Home wins39%league 43%
Aston Villa5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 Apr 26H · Sunderland4–31
- D21 Sep 25A · Sunderland1–11
- W15 Jan 25A · Everton1–01
- L14 Dec 24A · Nottingham Forest1–21
- W24 Feb 24H · Nottingham Forest4–21
Tottenham4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L14 Dec 25A · Nottingham Forest0–33
- D8 Nov 25H · Manchester United2–25
- L22 Dec 24H · Liverpool3–61
- W10 Feb 24H · Brighton2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa34 games · scored 47 · conceded 42
4
7
0-15
6
3
16-30
9
9
31-45
8
8
46-60
8
7
61-75
12
8
76-90
Tottenham34 games · scored 43 · conceded 53
3
7
0-15
4
3
16-30
10
19
31-45
7
5
46-60
6
6
61-75
13
13
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Tottenham10 games · scored 12 · conceded 23
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
