Aston Villa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Aston Villa were slight favourites.
Aston Villa were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for West Ham. Aston Villa had 2.8 days of rest, West Ham 7.8 and had to travel 163 km.
Away travel163 kmRest days2.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d3 · 1
Aston Villa48%
Draw26%
West Ham26%
Aston Villa62%
Draw22%
West Ham16%
Aston Villa49%
Draw26%
West Ham25%
Aston Villa41%
Draw27%
West Ham32%
Aston Villa47%
Draw27%
West Ham26%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Birmingham)
No weather data yet
RefereePaul Tierney
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 119
Team strength
Aston Villa
West Ham
83
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
82
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
83
AttackIn forecast
68
78
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWest Ham
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Aston VillaWest Ham
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
70%
Scored inContext
70%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
12.47
ShotsContext
10.17
4.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.81
34%
On target shareContext
34%
8.14
Shots in the boxContext
7.27
63%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.84
OffsidesContext
2.15
12.87
Shots allowedContext
15.07
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.37
3.93
BlocksContext
4.64
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
70%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
449
PassesContext
372
381
Accurate passesContext
294
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.00
FoulsContext
11.13
12.93
Fouls sufferedContext
10.97
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.60
ShotsContext
11.40
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
29%
On target shareContext
35%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
66%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.25
11.70
Shots allowedContext
14.40
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
2.70
BlocksContext
4.30
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
70%
Save rateContext
73%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
486
PassesContext
396
418
Accurate passesContext
311
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.98
9.90
FoulsContext
12.40
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Aston Villa
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,041 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
West Ham
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel163 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Aston Villa |
West Ham |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 19 Mar | 7.8Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 163 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,041 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 18.2 | 19.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Aston Villa
Confirmed XI
23E. Martínez(G)
12L. Digne
14Pau Torres
4E. Konsa
2M. Cash
6R. Barkley
24A. Onana
27M. Rogers
7J. McGinn
19J. Sancho
11O. Watkins
West Ham
Confirmed XI
1M. Hermansen(G)
12E. Diouf
4A. Disasi
15K. Mavropanos
29A. Wan-Bissaka
18Mateus Fernandes
32F. Potts
28T. Souček
19Pablo
11V. Castellanos
20J. Bowen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Aston Villa
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
West Ham
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Aston Villa-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- West Ham+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Aston Villa · Home
1.93points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-2-4
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.00
West Ham · Away
1.07points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-7
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Aston Villa | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Chelsea | L 1–4 HW 2–1 A | L 2–3 AL 1–5 H |
| Wolves | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Leeds | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Brighton | W 1–0 HW 4–3 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 1–1 AW 4–0 H | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Brentford | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Newcastle | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Everton | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Crystal Palace | D 0–0 AL 0–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Arsenal | L 1–4 AW 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 A | L 2–5 AL 0–2 H |
| Manchester City | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Burnley | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Fulham | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 48 of 87 · 1.66 per game | 29 of 87 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Aston Villa wins3 draws4 West Ham wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.70
Over 2.560%
Both scored90%
Clean sheets0% · 10%
- 14 Dec 2025West Ham2–3Aston Villa
- 26 Jan 2025Aston Villa1–1West Ham
- 17 Aug 2024West Ham1–2Aston Villa
- 17 Mar 2024West Ham1–1Aston Villa
- 22 Oct 2023Aston Villa4–1West Ham
- 12 Mar 2023West Ham1–1Aston Villa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Aston Villa | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.23 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 3.03 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Aston Villa | West Ham | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Aston Villa | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.34 | 5.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 6.59 | |
| Match total | 10.24 | 11.76 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 76% 22/29 | 79% 23/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 69% 20/29 | 72% 21/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 15/29 | 69% 20/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.53 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 4.13 | 3.76 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 19/30 | 53% 16/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 13/30 | 30% 9/30 | |
| Aston Villa | West Ham | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 11.90 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.90 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Paul Tierney 119 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 3.79
Red cards0.11league 0.13
Cards 5+41%league 40%
Fouls22.1league 21.5
Penalties0.18league 0.21
Home wins38%league 42%
Aston Villa9 with this referee
Record2-2-5
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W30 Mar 24H · Wolves2–03
- W3 Feb 24A · Sheffield Utd5–00
- L26 Dec 22H · Liverpool1–30
- L29 Oct 22A · Newcastle0–41
- D19 May 22H · Burnley1–10
West Ham9 with this referee
Record4-2-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L20 Dec 25A · Manchester City0–31
- L10 Dec 23A · Fulham0–51
- W1 Sep 23A · Luton2–11
- W2 Apr 23H · Southampton1–00
- L6 Nov 22H · Crystal Palace1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Aston Villa30 games · scored 40 · conceded 37
2
6
0-15
5
3
16-30
8
7
31-45
7
8
46-60
7
7
61-75
11
6
76-90
West Ham30 games · scored 36 · conceded 55
9
8
0-15
3
3
16-30
8
11
31-45
3
9
46-60
4
12
61-75
9
12
76-90
Aston Villa10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
West Ham10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
