Atalanta vs Bologna – 17 May 2026

Serie A Gameweek 37 Sun, May 17 · 17:00 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta 7th · 58 pts · 36 played LDLDW

0–1Full time

Bologna 8th · 52 pts · 36 played WLLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were slight favourites.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Bologna. Atalanta had 6.9 days of rest, Bologna 5.9 and had to travel 187 km.

Away travel187 kmRest days6.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Atalanta52%

Draw25%

Bologna23%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.05

Atalanta54%

Draw25%

Bologna21%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

Atalanta52%

Draw26%

Bologna22%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.01

Atalanta45%

Draw27%

Bologna29%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.18

Atalanta53%

Draw24%

Bologna23%

Expected goals 1.82 – 1.12

Over 2.5 52% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

No weather data yet

RefereeDaniele Perenzoni

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 5

Team strength

Atalanta

Bologna

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

48 AttackIn forecast 35

45 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bologna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atalanta

Bologna

1.39 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.25

0.94 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.19

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

81% Scored inContext 69%

36% Clean sheetsContext 31%

14.42 ShotsContext 12.58

4.76 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.82

31% On target shareContext 29%

9.64 Shots in the boxContext 7.89

66% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.43

11.58 Shots allowedContext 9.94

4.09 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.71

3.15 BlocksContext 3.00

3.47 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

80% Save rateContext 67%

56% PossessionIn forecast 55%

485 PassesContext 437

411 Accurate passesContext 363

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.84

11.06 FoulsContext 12.56

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.94

1.64 Yellow cardsContext 1.81

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 36 and 36 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

1.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

80% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.80 ShotsContext 12.10

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

35% On target shareContext 33%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

68% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.56 OffsidesContext 2.88

14.80 Shots allowedContext 11.10

5.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.70 BlocksContext 3.89

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

66% Save rateContext 54%

50% PossessionIn forecast 55%

465 PassesContext 478

386 Accurate passesContext 407

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.74

10.90 FoulsContext 14.40

9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km90 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bologna

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel187 km941 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	Bologna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Serie A 2025-2026, 10 May	5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 11 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	187 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	90 km	941 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	5.1	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

69H. Ahanor 19B. Djimsiti 42G. Scalvini

59N. Zalewski 13Éderson 15M. de Roon 77D. Zappacosta

18G. Raspadori 17C. De Ketelaere

90N. Krstović

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Bologna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Ł. Skorupski(G)

33Juan Miranda 14T. Heggem 5E. Helland 17João Mário

4T. Pobega 8R. Freuler

11J. Rowe 19L. Ferguson 10F. Bernardeschi

9S. Castro

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bologna Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta+0.1 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Bologna+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home 1.83points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 9-6-3
Scored: 1.39
Conceded: 0.78

Bologna · Away 1.72points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 9-4-5
Scored: 1.61
Conceded: 1.28

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Atalanta	Bologna
AC Milan	W 3–2 AD 1–1 H	L 0–3 HL 0–1 A
Genoa	D 0–0 HW 1–0 A	L 2–3 AW 2–1 H
Cagliari	L 2–3 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 HW 2–0 A
AS Roma	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 0–2 HL 0–1 A
Juventus	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A	L 0–2 AL 0–1 H
Lecce	W 3–0 AW 4–1 H	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Verona	W 1–0 HL 1–3 A	L 1–2 HW 3–2 A
Inter	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H	L 1–3 A
Udinese	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	W 1–0 HW 3–0 A
Sassuolo	L 1–2 AL 0–3 H	W 1–0 AD 1–1 H
Napoli	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A	W 3–2 AW 2–0 H
Lazio	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A
Cremonese	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	W 2–1 AL 1–3 H
Como	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Parma	W 4–0 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 HW 3–1 A
Pisa	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 AW 4–0 H
Torino	W 2–0 HW 3–0 A	W 2–1 AD 0–0 H
Fiorentina	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A
Points	55 of 105 · 1.57 per game	52 of 105 · 1.49 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 Atalanta wins2 draws3 Bologna wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.78 Over 2.522% Both scored33% Clean sheets44% · 33%

7 Jan 2026Bologna0–2Atalanta
13 Apr 2025Atalanta2–0Bologna
28 Sep 2024Bologna1–1Atalanta
3 Mar 2024Atalanta1–2Bologna
23 Dec 2023Bologna1–0Atalanta
8 Apr 2023Atalanta0–2Bologna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.39	1.25
Conceded per game	0.94	1.19
Match goals	2.33	2.44	2.77
Over 1.5	75%	72%
Over 2.5	39%	44%	52%
Over 3.5	19%	25%
Both teams scored	53%	44%	54%
Clean sheets	36%	31%
Failed to score	19%	31%
Games	36	36

	Atalanta	Bologna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.20
Conceded per game	1.20	1.90
Match goals	2.60	3.10	2.77
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	52%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	5.83	4.34
Corners conceded	4.11	4.37
Match total	9.94	8.71	8.70
Over 8.5	63% 22/35	49% 17/35
Over 9.5	49% 17/35	37% 13/35
Over 10.5	40% 14/35	31% 11/35
Cards
Cards	1.69	1.97
Opponent cards	1.53	2.06
Match total	3.22	4.03	3.87
Over 3.5	44% 16/36	53% 19/36
Over 4.5	11% 4/36	44% 16/36

	Atalanta	Bologna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	3.80
Corners conceded	3.70	4.40
Match total	8.20	8.20	8.70
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.90
Opponent cards	1.60	1.60
Match total	3.00	3.50	3.87
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Perenzoni 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.20league 3.69

Red cards0.20league 0.19

Cards 5+40%league 34%

Fouls26.6league 24.7

Penalties0.20league 0.28

Home wins100%league 39%

Atalanta

No previous matches with this referee.

Bologna

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.