Atalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atalanta were clear favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 27). Absences weigh more on Cagliari. Atalanta had 7 days of rest, Cagliari 6.2 and had to travel 720 km.
Away travel720 kmRest days7 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Atalanta68%
Draw20%
Cagliari12%
Atalanta68%
Draw20%
Cagliari13%
Atalanta66%
Draw21%
Cagliari12%
Atalanta61%
Draw23%
Cagliari16%
Atalanta69%
Draw19%
Cagliari12%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bergamo)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyDavide Di Marco
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 1.00
- Matches 5
Team strength
Atalanta
Cagliari
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
48
AttackIn forecast
31
45
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AtalantaCagliari
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
79%
Scored inContext
64%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
14.71
ShotsContext
9.64
4.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.85
30%
On target shareContext
37%
9.36
Shots in the boxContext
6.38
64%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.40
10.64
Shots allowedContext
12.57
4.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.79
3.00
BlocksContext
3.75
3.31
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.77
74%
Save rateContext
74%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
494
PassesContext
362
424
Accurate passesContext
290
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.76
9.71
FoulsContext
15.14
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.86
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.57
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.30
ShotsContext
8.40
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
29%
On target shareContext
38%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.44
64%
Box shareContext
59%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.83
10.10
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
3.00
BlocksContext
3.44
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
69%
Save rateContext
67%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
500
PassesContext
366
428
Accurate passesContext
291
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.71
9.20
FoulsContext
15.10
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atalanta
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km214 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cagliari
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel720 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atalanta |
Cagliari |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 720 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 214 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
23S. Kolašinac
19B. Djimsiti
3K. Kossounou
47L. Bernasconi
13Éderson
15M. de Roon
77D. Zappacosta
11A. Lookman
17C. De Ketelaere
9G. Scamacca
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
15J. Rodríguez
6S. Luperto
28G. Zappa
33A. Obert
90M. Folorunsho
14A. Deiola
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
94S. Esposito
29G. Borrelli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atalanta
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cagliari
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atalanta+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.8 pp
- Cagliari-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Atalanta · Home
1.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-1
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.00
Cagliari · Away
0.86points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-3
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Atalanta | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Verona | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Fiorentina | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Napoli | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Sassuolo | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Udinese | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Como | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Juventus | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Lecce | W 4–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Parma | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 10 of 30 · 1.00 per game | 10 of 30 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Atalanta wins1 draws2 Cagliari wins
Goals per game1.17 – 0.83
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 17%
- 15 Feb 2025Atalanta0–0Cagliari
- 14 Dec 2024Cagliari0–1Atalanta
- 7 Apr 2024Cagliari2–1Atalanta
- 24 Sep 2023Atalanta2–0Cagliari
- 6 Feb 2022Atalanta1–2Cagliari
- 6 Nov 2021Cagliari1–2Atalanta
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atalanta | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.36 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 36% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 36% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Atalanta | Cagliari | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atalanta | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.92 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.77 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 9.69 | 8.17 | 8.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 8/13 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 4/13 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 2.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.07 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.64 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 7/14 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Atalanta | Cagliari | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 8.11 | 8.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.70 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Davide Di Marco Italy · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.60league 3.86
Red cards0.20league 0.16
Cards 5+0%league 38%
Fouls21.2league 25.9
Penalties1.00league 0.33
Home wins40%league 40%
AtalantaNo previous matches with this referee.
CagliariNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atalanta14 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
6
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
Cagliari14 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
0-15
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
