Atalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atalanta were clear favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cremonese. Atalanta had 8.1 days of rest, Cremonese 8 and had to travel 68 km.
Away travel68 kmRest days8.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Atalanta67%
Draw21%
Cremonese12%
Atalanta73%
Draw17%
Cremonese10%
Atalanta66%
Draw21%
Cremonese12%
Atalanta60%
Draw24%
Cremonese16%
Atalanta68%
Draw20%
Cremonese12%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bergamo)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Piccinini
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 49
Team strength
Atalanta
Cremonese
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
48
AttackIn forecast
16
45
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AtalantaCremonese
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.87
0.87
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.35
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
78%
Scored inContext
52%
39%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
13.87
ShotsContext
8.39
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.09
30%
On target shareContext
37%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
65%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.52
Shots allowedContext
15.91
4.04
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.39
3.29
BlocksContext
4.64
3.48
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.27
80%
Save rateContext
76%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
466
PassesContext
373
395
Accurate passesContext
292
85%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.72
11.09
FoulsContext
13.17
10.57
Fouls sufferedContext
12.65
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.48
70%
Scored inContext
20%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.20
ShotsContext
8.80
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
26%
On target shareContext
32%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
64%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
5%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.00
Shots allowedContext
15.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.75
BlocksContext
4.70
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
87%
Save rateContext
75%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
452
PassesContext
384
375
Accurate passesContext
302
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.68
12.50
FoulsContext
14.90
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atalanta
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km94 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cremonese
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel68 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atalanta |
Cremonese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 8Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 68 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 94 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
23S. Kolašinac
19B. Djimsiti
42G. Scalvini
59N. Zalewski
13Éderson
8M. Pašalić
77D. Zappacosta
18G. Raspadori
10L. Samardžić
90N. Krstović
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
5S. Luperto
6F. Baschirotto
23F. Ceccherini
3G. Pezzella
29Y. Maleh
33A. Grassi
2M. Thorsby
4T. Barbieri
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atalanta
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cremonese
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atalanta+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Cremonese-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Atalanta · Home
1.83points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Cremonese · Away
1.00points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-6
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Atalanta | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|
| Como | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Parma | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Pisa | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Torino | W 2–0 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Bologna | W 2–0 A | W 3–1 A |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 H |
| Inter | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Genoa | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Verona | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Fiorentina | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Napoli | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Sassuolo | L 0–3 H | L 0–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Udinese | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Juventus | D 1–1 A | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H |
| Lecce | W 4–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 35 of 66 · 1.59 per game | 22 of 66 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Atalanta wins2 draws0 Cremonese wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 25 Oct 2025Cremonese1–1Atalanta
- 1 Apr 2023Cremonese1–3Atalanta
- 11 Sep 2022Atalanta1–1Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atalanta | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.87 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.87 | 1.35 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 2.22 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 35% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 43% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 39% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 48% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Atalanta | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.80 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 20% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 10% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 80% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atalanta | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.77 | 6.09 | |
| Match total | 10.27 | 9.45 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 15/22 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 12/22 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 41% 9/22 | 23% 5/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.65 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.48 | 1.61 | |
| Match total | 3.13 | 3.78 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 10/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 4% 1/23 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Atalanta | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 9.11 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Piccinini Italy · 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.12league 3.81
Red cards0.20league 0.18
Cards 5+43%league 36%
Fouls24.7league 25.5
Penalties0.31league 0.32
Home wins41%league 38%
Atalanta9 with this referee
Record4-1-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W20 Apr 25A · AC Milan1–01
- D1 Feb 25H · Torino1–10
- W30 Oct 24H · Monza2–02
- W27 Jan 24H · Udinese2–02
- L4 Dec 23A · Torino0–32
Cremonese1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W28 Feb 23H · AS Roma2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atalanta23 games · scored 30 · conceded 20
5
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
7
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
8
5
76-90
Cremonese23 games · scored 20 · conceded 31
3
6
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
7
61-75
6
3
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 13 · conceded 6
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
1
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 4 · conceded 14
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
