Atalanta vs Juventus – 11 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 32 Sat, Apr 11 · 19:45 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta 7th · 53 pts · 31 played LDDWW

0–1Full time

Juventus 5th · 57 pts · 31 played DWWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Juventus. Atalanta had 5.2 days of rest, Juventus 5.1 and had to travel 170 km.

Away travel170 kmRest days5.2 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Atalanta40%

Draw25%

Juventus35%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.44

Atalanta43%

Draw27%

Juventus30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Atalanta39%

Draw26%

Juventus35%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.44

Atalanta32%

Draw25%

Juventus42%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.62

Atalanta40%

Draw25%

Juventus35%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.53

Over 2.5 58% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFabio Maresca

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 73

Team strength

Atalanta

Juventus

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

48 AttackIn forecast 57

45 DefenceIn forecast 76

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Juventus

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atalanta

Juventus

1.42 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.74

0.87 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.94

1.54 xGVia Att/Def 1.73

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.86

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

84% Scored inContext 81%

39% Clean sheetsContext 39%

14.55 ShotsContext 16.26

4.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

31% On target shareContext 37%

9.71 Shots in the boxContext 10.45

66% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.45 OffsidesContext 2.08

11.52 Shots allowedContext 10.00

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.87

3.21 BlocksContext 3.07

3.37 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.23

81% Save rateContext 73%

56% PossessionIn forecast 57%

481 PassesContext 519

408 Accurate passesContext 451

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.94

10.84 FoulsContext 12.16

10.32 Fouls sufferedContext 9.94

1.65 Yellow cardsContext 1.32

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 2.11

1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

90% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.80 ShotsContext 18.10

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30

38% On target shareContext 35%

10.20 Shots in the boxContext 13.44

73% Box shareContext 69%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.86

12.90 Shots allowedContext 12.40

4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

3.20 BlocksContext 3.40

3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.43

60% Save rateContext 63%

52% PossessionIn forecast 54%

471 PassesContext 493

398 Accurate passesContext 421

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.92

10.50 FoulsContext 11.00

9.90 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,821 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Juventus

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel170 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Apr	5.1Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	170 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,821 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

23S. Kolašinac 19B. Djimsiti 42G. Scalvini

47L. Bernasconi 13Éderson 15M. de Roon 77D. Zappacosta

59N. Zalewski 17C. De Ketelaere

90N. Krstović

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Juventus Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

16M. Di Gregorio(G)

6L. Kelly 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

27A. Cambiaso 19K. Thuram 5M. Locatelli 2E. Holm

10K. Yıldız 7Francisco Conceição

13J. Boga

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Juventus Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta+0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Juventus-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home 2.00points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 9-5-2
Scored: 1.56
Conceded: 0.81

Juventus · Away 1.60points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 7-3-5
Scored: 1.47
Conceded: 1.07

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Atalanta	Juventus
Lecce	W 3–0 AW 4–1 H	D 1–1 H
Verona	W 1–0 HL 1–3 A	D 1–1 A
Inter	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H	L 2–3 AW 4–3 H
Udinese	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	W 1–0 AW 3–1 H
Sassuolo	L 1–2 AL 0–3 H	D 1–1 HW 3–0 A
Napoli	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
Lazio	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A
Cremonese	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	W 5–0 HW 2–1 A
Como	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A
Parma	W 4–0 HD 1–1 A	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H
Pisa	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	W 4–0 HW 2–0 A
Torino	W 2–0 HW 3–0 A	D 0–0 H
Bologna	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 A
AS Roma	W 1–0 H	D 3–3 AW 2–1 H
Genoa	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A
Cagliari	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
Fiorentina	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
AC Milan	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 H
Points	52 of 90 · 1.73 per game	56 of 90 · 1.87 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Atalanta wins6 draws1 Juventus wins

Goals per game1.44 – 1.11 Over 2.533% Both scored56% Clean sheets33% · 22%

27 Sep 2025Juventus1–1Atalanta
9 Mar 2025Juventus0–4Atalanta
14 Jan 2025Atalanta1–1Juventus
10 Mar 2024Juventus2–2Atalanta
1 Oct 2023Atalanta0–0Juventus
7 May 2023Atalanta0–2Juventus

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.42	1.74
Conceded per game	0.87	0.94
Match goals	2.29	2.68	2.99
Over 1.5	77%	77%
Over 2.5	39%	45%	58%
Over 3.5	16%	26%
Both teams scored	52%	48%	61%
Clean sheets	39%	39%
Failed to score	16%	19%
Games	31	31

	Atalanta	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	2.20
Conceded per game	0.70	1.20
Match goals	2.50	3.40	2.99
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	58%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	61%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	5.77	5.21
Corners conceded	4.23	3.72
Match total	10.00	8.93	8.63
Over 8.5	63% 19/30	45% 13/29
Over 9.5	50% 15/30	34% 10/29
Over 10.5	40% 12/30	24% 7/29
Cards
Cards	1.71	1.39
Opponent cards	1.52	2.16
Match total	3.23	3.55	3.89
Over 3.5	45% 14/31	52% 16/31
Over 4.5	10% 3/31	35% 11/31

	Atalanta	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	4.70	5.30
Corners conceded	3.10	3.40
Match total	7.80	8.70	8.63
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.80
Opponent cards	2.20	2.10
Match total	3.60	3.90	3.89
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Fabio Maresca Italy · 73 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.00league 3.71

Red cards0.16league 0.19

Cards 5+64%league 35%

Fouls25.0league 25.0

Penalties0.18league 0.30

Home wins37%league 40%

Atalanta4 with this referee

Record2-2-0 Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D21 Aug 22H · AC Milan1–14
W8 May 22A · Spezia3–13
W20 Mar 22A · Bologna1–01
D25 Sep 21A · Inter2–25

Juventus8 with this referee

Record4-1-3 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds2

W27 Dec 25A · Pisa2–01
D13 Apr 24A · Torino0–02
L4 Feb 24A · Inter0–13
W16 Sep 23H · Lazio3–15
L5 Mar 23A · AS Roma0–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.