Atalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atalanta were clear favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 23). Atalanta usually keep the ball (55% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Atalanta had 14.9 days of rest, Lecce 15.8 and had to travel 911 km.
Away travel911 kmRest days14.9 · 15.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Atalanta72%
Draw18%
Lecce9%
Atalanta74%
Draw17%
Lecce9%
Atalanta72%
Draw18%
Lecce9%
Atalanta66%
Draw21%
Lecce13%
Atalanta74%
Draw17%
Lecce9%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bergamo)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGianluca Manganiello
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 48
Team strength
Atalanta
Lecce
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
48
AttackIn forecast
36
45
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AtalantaLecce
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
0.40
0.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.40
100%
Scored inContext
0%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
16.00
ShotsContext
7.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
28%
On target shareContext
14%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
70%
Box shareContext
71%
6%
ConversionContext
0%
—
OffsidesContext
1.50
9.00
Shots allowedContext
9.50
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
2.00
BlocksContext
2.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
80%
Save rateContext
75%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
473
PassesContext
336
393
Accurate passesContext
263
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.67
12.00
FoulsContext
11.00
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.10
ShotsContext
11.20
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
30%
On target shareContext
27%
10.75
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
76%
Box shareContext
55%
13%
ConversionContext
5%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.10
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.33
BlocksContext
3.20
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
79%
Save rateContext
82%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
461
PassesContext
300
384
Accurate passesContext
225
83%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.90
FoulsContext
11.80
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atalanta
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lecce
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel911 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atalanta |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.9Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 15.8Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 911 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
42G. Scalvini
4I. Hien
3K. Kossounou
59N. Zalewski
8M. Pašalić
15M. de Roon
16R. Bellanova
7K. Sulemana
17C. De Ketelaere
90N. Krstović
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
5J. Siebert
4E. Gaspar
21Owen Kouassi
6Álex Sala
20Y. Ramadani
29L. Coulibaly
23R. Sottil
9N. Štulić
7Tete Morente
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atalanta
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lecce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atalanta+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lecce+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Atalanta · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lecce · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Atalanta wins1 draws2 Lecce wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.83
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 27 Apr 2025Atalanta1–1Lecce
- 19 Aug 2024Lecce0–4Atalanta
- 18 May 2024Lecce0–2Atalanta
- 30 Dec 2023Atalanta1–0Lecce
- 19 Feb 2023Atalanta1–2Lecce
- 9 Nov 2022Lecce2–1Atalanta
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atalanta | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Atalanta | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atalanta | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.50 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Atalanta | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 11.22 | 11.20 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gianluca Manganiello Italy · 48 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.52league 3.46
Red cards0.17league 0.08
Cards 5+33%league 33%
Fouls23.8league 25.8
Penalties0.23league 0.17
Home wins42%league 42%
Atalanta2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Nov 24A · Parma3–12
- W30 Dec 23H · Lecce1–02
Lecce6 with this referee
Record0-0-6
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L29 Mar 25H · AS Roma0–11
- L21 Dec 24H · Lazio1–24
- L11 Feb 24A · Bologna0–42
- L30 Dec 23A · Atalanta0–12
- L7 Apr 23H · Napoli1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atalanta2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Lecce2 games · scored 0 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 6 · conceded 11
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
