Atalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atalanta were clear favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 32). Atalanta usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Atalanta had 8.8 days of rest, Parma 7.1 and had to travel 112 km.
Away travel112 kmRest days8.8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Atalanta65%
Draw22%
Parma14%
Atalanta65%
Draw21%
Parma14%
Atalanta64%
Draw22%
Parma14%
Atalanta57%
Draw24%
Parma18%
Atalanta66%
Draw21%
Parma14%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bergamo)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyJuan Luca Sacchi
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 6
Team strength
Atalanta
Parma
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
59
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
48
AttackIn forecast
20
45
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AtalantaParma
1.24
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
0.95
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.05
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
81%
Scored inContext
48%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.00
ShotsContext
10.76
4.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.05
30%
On target shareContext
26%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
65%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.53
10.62
Shots allowedContext
14.10
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.00
BlocksContext
4.15
3.26
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
78%
Save rateContext
75%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
481
PassesContext
340
410
Accurate passesContext
268
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.00
FoulsContext
10.62
10.76
Fouls sufferedContext
14.05
1.52
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
90%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.60
ShotsContext
12.00
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
30%
On target shareContext
23%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
69%
Box shareContext
55%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
3.14
OffsidesContext
1.43
9.90
Shots allowedContext
14.60
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.88
BlocksContext
4.40
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
79%
Save rateContext
80%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
481
PassesContext
358
402
Accurate passesContext
287
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.40
FoulsContext
9.60
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Atalanta
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km457 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Parma
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel112 km1,088 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Atalanta |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Serie A 2025-2026, 16 Jan | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 112 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 457 km | 1,088 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
69H. Ahanor
19B. Djimsiti
42G. Scalvini
59N. Zalewski
13Éderson
15M. de Roon
77D. Zappacosta
18G. Raspadori
17C. De Ketelaere
9G. Scamacca
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
5L. Valenti
37Mariano Troilo
39A. Circati
15E. Delprato
8N. Estévez
10Adrián Bernabé
16L. Keita
27Sascha Britschgi
22O. Sørensen
7A. Benedyczak
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Atalanta
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Atalanta+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Parma-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Atalanta · Home
1.73points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-2
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 0.82
Parma · Away
1.30points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-3
- Scored
- 0.70
- Conceded
- 0.90
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Atalanta | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Torino | W 2–0 HW 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Bologna | W 2–0 A | L 1–3 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Inter | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Genoa | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Cagliari | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Verona | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Fiorentina | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Napoli | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Sassuolo | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 A |
| Udinese | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| AC Milan | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Como | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Juventus | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Lecce | W 4–1 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 31 of 60 · 1.55 per game | 22 of 60 · 1.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Atalanta wins1 draws1 Parma wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 30 Aug 2025Parma1–1Atalanta
- 25 May 2025Atalanta2–3Parma
- 23 Nov 2024Parma1–3Atalanta
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Atalanta | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.24 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.95 | 1.05 | |
| Match goals | 2.19 | 1.71 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 29% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 38% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 19% | 52% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Atalanta | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 20% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Atalanta | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 3.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.45 | 4.74 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 8.32 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 14/20 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 11/20 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 8/20 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.05 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 9/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/21 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Atalanta | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 8.78 | 8.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 4.60 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Luca Sacchi Italy · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.17league 3.81
Red cards0.00league 0.16
Cards 5+17%league 36%
Fouls28.5league 25.6
Penalties0.17league 0.30
Home wins33%league 37%
AtalantaNo previous matches with this referee.
Parma1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D28 Apr 25A · Lazio2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Atalanta21 games · scored 26 · conceded 20
4
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
7
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
7
5
76-90
Parma21 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
7
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
61-75
7
1
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
