Atalanta vs Torino – 10 Jan 2026

Serie A Gameweek 20 Sat, Jan 10 · 19:45 Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Atalanta 7th · 28 pts · 19 played WWLWW

2–0Full time

Torino 12th · 23 pts · 19 played WWLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atalanta were clear favourites.

Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 37). Atalanta had 3.1 days of rest, Torino 3 and had to travel 170 km.

Away travel170 kmRest days3.1 · 3Matches / 14d3 · 2

Atalanta63%

Draw23%

Torino15%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.80

Atalanta64%

Draw21%

Torino15%

Expected goals 2.04 – 0.88

Atalanta63%

Draw23%

Torino15%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.80

Atalanta56%

Draw25%

Torino19%

Expected goals 1.69 – 0.90

Atalanta64%

Draw21%

Torino15%

Expected goals 2.04 – 0.88

Over 2.5 50% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bergamo)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau

Cards per match 4.6
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 41

Team strength

Atalanta

Torino

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

48 AttackIn forecast 39

45 DefenceIn forecast 47

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atalanta

Attack—

Defense risk—

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atalanta

Torino

1.21 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.58

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

-0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

79% Scored inContext 74%

32% Clean sheetsContext 42%

14.11 ShotsContext 12.21

4.65 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.47

30% On target shareContext 37%

9.11 Shots in the boxContext 7.79

64% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.69

10.47 Shots allowedContext 12.68

3.84 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.95

3.06 BlocksContext 3.26

3.18 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.65

76% Save rateContext 63%

56% PossessionIn forecast 45%

482 PassesContext 367

411 Accurate passesContext 293

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.76

10.89 FoulsContext 13.58

10.42 Fouls sufferedContext 10.89

1.53 Yellow cardsContext 1.74

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.68 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

90% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.10 ShotsContext 13.00

4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

31% On target shareContext 35%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

66% Box shareContext 67%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.63

10.40 Shots allowedContext 11.20

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.22 BlocksContext 3.30

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

74% Save rateContext 60%

54% PossessionIn forecast 47%

468 PassesContext 384

393 Accurate passesContext 304

84% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.80

11.50 FoulsContext 13.00

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atalanta

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km375 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Torino

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel170 km524 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atalanta	Torino
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.1Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Jan	3Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	170 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	375 km	524 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	2 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atalanta Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

29M. Carnesecchi(G)

69H. Ahanor 19B. Djimsiti 42G. Scalvini

47L. Bernasconi 13Éderson 15M. de Roon 77D. Zappacosta

59N. Zalewski 17C. De Ketelaere

90N. Krstović

Torino Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1A. Paleari(G)

23Saúl Coco 13G. Maripán 44A. Ismajli

7Z. Aboukhlal 66G. Gineitis 61A. Tamèze 10N. Vlašić 20V. Lazaro

26C. Ngonge 91D. Zapata

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atalanta Absences are shown before kick-off

Torino Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atalanta+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Torino+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Atalanta · Home 1.60points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-2
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 0.90

Torino · Away 1.33points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-3
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Atalanta	Torino
Bologna	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 A
AS Roma	W 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Inter	L 0–1 H	L 0–5 A
Genoa	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 H
Cagliari	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 H
Verona	L 1–3 A	W 3–0 A
Fiorentina	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 H
Napoli	L 1–3 A	W 1–0 H
Sassuolo	L 0–3 H	W 1–0 A
Udinese	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
AC Milan	D 1–1 H	L 2–3 H
Cremonese	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Lazio	D 0–0 H	D 3–3 A
Como	D 1–1 H	L 1–5 H
Juventus	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 A
Lecce	W 4–1 H	L 1–2 A
Parma	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 A
Pisa	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Points	25 of 54 · 1.39 per game	23 of 54 · 1.28 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

5 Atalanta wins2 draws2 Torino wins

Goals per game2.11 – 1.44 Over 2.589% Both scored67% Clean sheets22% · 11%

21 Sep 2025Torino0–3Atalanta
1 Feb 2025Atalanta1–1Torino
25 Aug 2024Torino2–1Atalanta
26 May 2024Atalanta3–0Torino
4 Dec 2023Torino3–0Atalanta
29 Apr 2023Torino1–2Atalanta

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atalanta	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	1.21	1.11
Conceded per game	1.00	1.58
Match goals	2.21	2.68	2.69
Over 1.5	74%	63%
Over 2.5	32%	63%	50%
Over 3.5	16%	26%
Both teams scored	53%	47%	47%
Clean sheets	32%	42%
Failed to score	21%	26%
Games	19	19

	Atalanta	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.30
Conceded per game	1.20	1.60
Match goals	2.20	2.90	2.69
Over 1.5	60%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	50%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	47%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atalanta	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	6.06	4.12
Corners conceded	4.22	4.47
Match total	10.28	8.59	8.82
Over 8.5	72% 13/18	41% 7/17
Over 9.5	56% 10/18	41% 7/17
Over 10.5	39% 7/18	35% 6/17
Cards
Cards	1.58	1.79
Opponent cards	1.42	1.47
Match total	3.00	3.26	4.02
Over 3.5	47% 9/19	53% 10/19
Over 4.5	0% 0/19	21% 4/19

	Atalanta	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	4.10
Corners conceded	5.10	3.90
Match total	10.30	8.00	8.82
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.60
Opponent cards	1.40	1.20
Match total	2.60	2.80	4.02
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 41 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.51league 3.89

Red cards0.12league 0.16

Cards 5+59%league 38%

Fouls26.1league 25.8

Penalties0.32league 0.31

Home wins44%league 37%

Atalanta1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W23 Apr 22A · Venezia3–13

Torino5 with this referee

Record1-4-0 Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.4 Pens for · against0 · 0

D8 Mar 25A · Parma2–22
D29 Dec 24A · Udinese2–20
D9 Oct 22H · Empoli1–12
D23 Jan 22H · Sassuolo1–13
W30 Oct 21H · Sampdoria3–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.