Athletic Club
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Athletic Club18.2%fair odds 5.50
Draw21.3%fair odds 4.70
Barcelona60.5%fair odds 1.65
Expected goals1.09 – 2.13total 3.22
Likeliest score1–29.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Barcelona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Athletic Club ↓ · Barcelona → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Athletic Club goals, columns Barcelona goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–29.9%10.13
- 1–19.8%10.24
- 0–29.0%11.08
- 0–18.0%12.52
- 1–37.0%14.27
- 0–36.4%15.61
- 2–25.4%18.50
- 2–15.1%19.70
- 0–04.5%22.35
- 1–03.9%25.87
Winning margin
2.0%
Athletic Club by 3+
fair 50.61
4.9%
Athletic Club by 2
fair 20.54
11.3%
Athletic Club by 1
fair 8.81
21.3%
Draw
fair 4.70
22.5%
Barcelona by 1
fair 4.44
18.4%
Barcelona by 2
fair 5.43
19.6%
Barcelona by 3+
fair 5.11
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Athletic Club goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
Barcelona goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 18.2% | 19.3% | -1.1 pp |
| Draw | 21.3% | 21.5% | -0.2 pp |
| Barcelona win | 60.5% | 59.2% | +1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 63.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.1% | 60.2% | -1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Athletic Club | 1.09 | 1.14 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Barcelona | 2.13 | 2.11 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Athletic Club win18.2%5.50
- Draw21.3%4.70
- Barcelona win60.5%1.65
- Double chance Athletic Club or draw39.5%2.53
- Double chance Athletic Club or Barcelona78.7%1.27
- Double chance Barcelona or draw81.8%1.22
- Draw no bet Athletic Club23.1%4.33
- Draw no bet Barcelona76.9%1.30
Goals
- Over 0.595.5%1.05
- Over 1.583.7%1.20
- Over 2.562.5%1.60
- Over 3.540.3%2.48
- Over 4.522.4%4.47
- Under 1.516.3%6.13
- Under 2.537.5%2.67
- Under 3.559.7%1.67
Both teams to score
- Yes59.1%1.69
- No40.9%2.45
- Yes and over 2.549.3%2.03
- Athletic Club win and yes10.8%9.29
- Draw and yes16.8%5.95
- Barcelona win and yes31.5%3.17
Team goals
- Athletic Club over 0.566.5%1.50
- Athletic Club over 1.529.9%3.35
- Athletic Club over 2.59.8%10.16
- Barcelona over 0.588.1%1.14
- Barcelona over 1.562.8%1.59
- Barcelona over 2.535.8%2.79
- Athletic Club clean sheet11.9%8.41
- Barcelona clean sheet33.5%2.99
- Athletic Club win to nil7.4%13.47
- Barcelona win to nil29.0%3.45
Handicap
- Athletic Club −1.56.8%14.61
- Athletic Club −2.52.0%50.61
- Barcelona +1.593.2%1.07
- Barcelona +2.598.0%1.02
- Barcelona −1.538.0%2.63
- Athletic Club +1.562.0%1.61
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored264
Favourite won53.4%
Avg chance given to result41.4%
1X2 Brier0.574
Over 2.5 called right58.0%
BTTS called right57.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 48 | 37.8% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 107 | 44.5% | 45.8% |
| 50–60% | 54 | 54.7% | 59.3% |
| 60–70% | 28 | 64.4% | 64.3% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 74.3% | 86.4% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 83.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 219 of 264 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5700 | 0.5623 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 42.4% |
| Favourite won | 54.3% | 55.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 219 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 264 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.