Athletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 61). Barcelona usually keep the ball (69% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Athletic Club had 7.3 days of rest, Barcelona 7.2 and had to travel 467 km.
Away travel467 kmRest days7.3 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Athletic Club18%
Draw21%
Barcelona61%
Athletic Club20%
Draw24%
Barcelona56%
Athletic Club18%
Draw22%
Barcelona60%
Athletic Club13%
Draw19%
Barcelona68%
Athletic Club19%
Draw22%
Barcelona59%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bilbao)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 38
Team strength
Athletic Club
Barcelona
61
L90 StrengthIn forecast
91
51
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
51
AttackIn forecast
97
64
DefenceIn forecast
92
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBarcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Athletic ClubBarcelona
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.73
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
2.54
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
69%
Scored inContext
100%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
13.85
ShotsContext
20.31
4.46
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.27
32%
On target shareContext
36%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
12.92
66%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.07
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.35
Shots allowedContext
9.08
4.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.81
2.35
BlocksContext
2.43
3.04
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.84
70%
Save rateContext
72%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
406
PassesContext
648
326
Accurate passesContext
582
80%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.73
Team ratingContext
7.12
12.92
FoulsContext
9.69
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.62
2.23
Yellow cardsContext
1.31
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
2.93
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.42
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.90
ShotsContext
21.90
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.20
35%
On target shareContext
37%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
14.80
66%
Box shareContext
68%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.22
9.50
Shots allowedContext
8.80
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
1.71
BlocksContext
2.10
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
64%
Save rateContext
77%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
71%
369
PassesContext
657
281
Accurate passesContext
590
76%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.69
Team ratingContext
7.15
16.00
FoulsContext
9.50
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
3.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Athletic Club
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km646 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Barcelona
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel467 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Athletic Club |
Barcelona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.3La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 467 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 646 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
19Adama Boiro
14A. Laporte
3Dani Vivian
2Andoni Gorosabel
30Alejandro Rego Mora
18Mikel Jauregizar
20Unai Gómez
44Selton Sánchez
7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
2João Cancelo
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
24Eric García
17Marc Casadó
22Marc Bernal
20Dani Olmo
14M. Rashford
7Ferran Torres
10Lamine Yamal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Athletic Club
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Barcelona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Athletic Club-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Barcelona+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Athletic Club · Home
1.77points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-4
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.15
Barcelona · Away
1.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-4
- Scored
- 2.31
- Conceded
- 1.54
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Athletic Club | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Elche | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Levante | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Sevilla | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Mallorca | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Osasuna | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Espanyol | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 0–2 A | W 4–2 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 0–1 A | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Valencia | L 0–2 A | W 6–0 H |
| Alaves | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Real Betis | W 2–1 A | W 5–3 A |
| Points | 35 of 75 · 1.40 per game | 61 of 75 · 2.44 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
0 Athletic Club wins2 draws8 Barcelona wins
Goals per game0.30 – 2.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets10% · 70%
- 22 Nov 2025Barcelona4–0Athletic Club
- 25 May 2025Athletic Club0–3Barcelona
- 24 Aug 2024Barcelona2–1Athletic Club
- 3 Mar 2024Athletic Club0–0Barcelona
- 22 Oct 2023Barcelona1–0Athletic Club
- 12 Mar 2023Athletic Club0–1Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Athletic Club | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 2.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.54 | 3.73 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 85% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 62% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 31% | 0% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Athletic Club | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.22 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Athletic Club | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.27 | 7.28 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.85 | 4.32 | |
| Match total | 9.12 | 11.60 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 17/26 | 88% 22/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 13/26 | 68% 17/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 9/26 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.42 | 1.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 2.46 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.84 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 16/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 12/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Athletic Club | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 8.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 11.50 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.70 | 3.10 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.47league 4.20
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+53%league 46%
Fouls25.5league 24.5
Penalties0.18league 0.37
Home wins37%league 47%
Athletic Club7 with this referee
Record4-2-1
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D3 Jan 26A · Osasuna1–13
- L1 Nov 25A · Real Sociedad2–32
- D23 Sep 25H · Girona1–10
- W11 May 25H · Alaves1–01
- W25 May 24A · Rayo Vallecano1–01
Barcelona4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W16 Aug 25A · Mallorca3–01
- L18 May 25H · Villarreal2–32
- L27 Jan 24H · Villarreal3–53
- D25 Nov 23A · Rayo Vallecano1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Athletic Club25 games · scored 30 · conceded 34
3
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
8
9
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
5
61-75
9
8
76-90
Barcelona26 games · scored 71 · conceded 26
13
5
0-15
6
4
16-30
13
8
31-45
11
1
46-60
13
3
61-75
15
5
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 28 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
8
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
