Athletic Club vs Mallorca – 4 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 4 · 17:30 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao

Athletic Club 10th · 10 pts · 7 played WLLDL

2–1Full time

Mallorca 20th · 5 pts · 7 played LLDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Athletic Club were slight favourites.

Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 46). Athletic Club had 6.9 days of rest, Mallorca 7 and had to travel 620 km.

Away travel620 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3

Athletic Club55%

Draw26%

Mallorca20%

Expected goals 1.66 – 0.90

Athletic Club56%

Draw24%

Mallorca20%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.99

Athletic Club55%

Draw25%

Mallorca19%

Expected goals 1.69 – 0.90

Athletic Club47%

Draw28%

Mallorca25%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.01

Athletic Club56%

Draw24%

Mallorca20%

Expected goals 1.78 – 0.98

Over 2.5 47% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bilbao)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.38
Matches 8

Team strength

Athletic Club

Mallorca

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

51 AttackIn forecast 50

64 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack—

Defense risk—

Mallorca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Athletic Club

Mallorca

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86

1.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 0.79

0.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

57% Scored inContext 71%

14% Clean sheetsContext 14%

13.57 ShotsContext 10.57

4.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.14

32% On target shareContext 39%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.57

65% Box shareContext 65%

7% ConversionContext 8%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.67

8.86 Shots allowedContext 14.00

3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71

2.17 BlocksContext 3.00

2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.83

71% Save rateContext 77%

54% PossessionIn forecast 42%

452 PassesContext 360

376 Accurate passesContext 287

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.43 FoulsContext 12.14

13.29 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.71

0.29 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 0.71

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

-0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.09

50% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.20 ShotsContext 9.40

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

30% On target shareContext 36%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.90

65% Box shareContext 66%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.60 OffsidesContext 1.67

9.80 Shots allowedContext 17.40

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80

2.11 BlocksContext 4.40

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.78

63% Save rateContext 78%

49% PossessionIn forecast 44%

413 PassesContext 378

341 Accurate passesContext 302

82% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.83

13.90 FoulsContext 12.80

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,819 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Mallorca

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel620 km1,134 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Athletic Club	Mallorca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep	7La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	620 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,819 km	1,134 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14.8	13.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Unai Simón(G)

17Yuri 14A. Laporte 3Dani Vivian 12Jesús Areso

18Mikel Jauregizar 16Ruíz de Galarreta

23Robert Navarro 11Gorka Guruzeta 22Nico Serrano

9I. Williams

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Mallorca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Leo Román(G)

22J. Mojica 21Raíllo 24M. Valjent 23Pablo Maffeo

8Manu Morlanes 12Samú Costa

20Pablo Torre 10Darder 30Marc Domenech

7V. Muriqi

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Athletic Club Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Mallorca Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Athletic Club-0.7 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Mallorca+0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.00

Mallorca · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Athletic Club	Mallorca
Alaves	L 0–1 H	W 1–0 H
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Athletic Club wins5 draws1 Mallorca wins

Goals per game1.25 – 0.63 Over 2.525% Both scored38% Clean sheets63% · 38%

9 Mar 2025Athletic Club1–1Mallorca
28 Oct 2024Mallorca0–0Athletic Club
2 Feb 2024Athletic Club4–0Mallorca
3 Sep 2023Mallorca0–0Athletic Club
1 May 2023Mallorca1–1Athletic Club
15 Aug 2022Athletic Club0–0Mallorca

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Athletic Club	Mallorca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.86
Conceded per game	1.14	1.57
Match goals	2.14	2.43	2.56
Over 1.5	57%	71%
Over 2.5	29%	43%	47%
Over 3.5	14%	14%
Both teams scored	43%	57%	49%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Failed to score	43%	29%
Games	7	7

	Athletic Club	Mallorca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.86
Conceded per game	1.14	1.57
Match goals	2.14	2.43	2.56
Over 1.5	57%	71%
Over 2.5	29%	43%	47%
Over 3.5	14%	14%
Both teams scored	43%	57%	49%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Failed to score	43%	29%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Athletic Club	Mallorca	League
Corners
Corners won	6.71	4.00
Corners conceded	4.14	6.00
Match total	10.85	10.00	9.58
Over 8.5	100% 7/7	86% 6/7
Over 9.5	71% 5/7	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	71% 5/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.43	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.14
Match total	3.43	4.14	4.20
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	71% 5/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7

	Athletic Club	Mallorca	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	3.67
Corners conceded	4.11	6.33
Match total	9.78	10.00	9.58
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.40	2.10
Opponent cards	1.80	1.90
Match total	3.20	4.00	4.20
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 8 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.50league 3.95

Red cards0.25league 0.26

Cards 5+25%league 44%

Fouls26.5league 24.5

Penalties0.38league 0.29

Home wins25%league 48%

Athletic Club

No previous matches with this referee.

Mallorca

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.