Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid – 27 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 7 Sat, Sep 27 · 15:15 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico Madrid 8th · 9 pts · 6 played DDWDW

5–2Full time

Real Madrid 1st · 18 pts · 6 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 80). Atletico Madrid had 2.8 days of rest, Real Madrid 3.8 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days2.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d3 · 3

Atletico Madrid33%

Draw27%

Real Madrid40%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.41

Atletico Madrid33%

Draw27%

Real Madrid40%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.42

Atletico Madrid32%

Draw27%

Real Madrid40%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.40

Atletico Madrid26%

Draw26%

Real Madrid48%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.58

Atletico Madrid33%

Draw27%

Real Madrid40%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.44

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 23

Team strength

Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid

80 L90 StrengthIn forecast 90

81 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

82 AttackIn forecast 89

87 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.33

1.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 2.11

0.83 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

100% Scored inContext 100%

17% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.17 ShotsContext 19.00

5.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.83

43% On target shareContext 36%

9.17 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

68% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 12%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.80

7.50 Shots allowedContext 9.33

2.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

1.75 BlocksContext 5.75

1.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

56% Save rateContext 67%

60% PossessionIn forecast 61%

571 PassesContext 614

500 Accurate passesContext 555

88% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.85 Team ratingContext 7.27

10.67 FoulsContext 9.17

11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 13.17

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.17

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.90 xGVia Att/Def 2.33

0.86 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

90% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.50 ShotsContext 21.30

6.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.30

47% On target shareContext 39%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 12.50

69% Box shareContext 59%

14% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

8.80 Shots allowedContext 8.90

3.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.67

2.29 BlocksContext 4.29

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.89

61% Save rateContext 71%

57% PossessionIn forecast 60%

543 PassesContext 603

474 Accurate passesContext 546

87% Pass accuracyContext 91%

6.92 Team ratingContext 7.31

10.70 FoulsContext 8.30

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,098 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Madrid

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,309 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atletico Madrid	Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Sep	3.8La Liga 2025-2026, 23 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,098 km	1,309 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	2 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8.2	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13J. Oblak(G)

17D. Hancko 15C. Lenglet 24R. Le Normand 14Marcos Llorente

23N. González 6Koke 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone

19J. Alvarez 9A. Sørloth

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Madrid Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1T. Courtois(G)

18Álvaro Fernández 24D. Huijsen 3Éder Militão 2Dani Carvajal

14A. Tchouaméni 8F. Valverde

7Vinícius 5J. Bellingham 15A. Güler

10K. Mbappé

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atletico Madrid Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Madrid Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atletico Madrid+0.3 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Real Madrid-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Real Madrid · Away 3.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Atletico Madrid	Real Madrid
Mallorca	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 H
Espanyol	L 1–2 A	W 2–0 H
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

3 Atletico Madrid wins4 draws3 Real Madrid wins

Goals per game1.10 – 1.10 Over 2.530% Both scored70% Clean sheets20% · 10%

12 Mar 2025Atletico Madrid1–0Real Madrid
4 Mar 2025Real Madrid2–1Atletico Madrid
8 Feb 2025Real Madrid1–1Atletico Madrid
29 Sep 2024Atletico Madrid1–1Real Madrid
4 Feb 2024Real Madrid1–1Atletico Madrid
24 Sep 2023Atletico Madrid3–1Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atletico Madrid	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.33
Conceded per game	1.17	0.50
Match goals	2.67	2.83	2.66
Over 1.5	100%	83%
Over 2.5	33%	67%	50%
Over 3.5	17%	17%
Both teams scored	83%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	17%	50%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	6	6

	Atletico Madrid	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.33
Conceded per game	1.17	0.50
Match goals	2.67	2.83	2.66
Over 1.5	100%	83%
Over 2.5	33%	67%	50%
Over 3.5	17%	17%
Both teams scored	83%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	17%	50%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	6	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atletico Madrid	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	6.83	5.40
Corners conceded	2.67	4.20
Match total	9.50	9.60	9.42
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	60% 3/5
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	40% 2/5
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	20% 1/5
Cards
Cards	2.17	1.50
Opponent cards	2.67	1.00
Match total	4.84	2.50	4.14
Over 3.5	83% 5/6	17% 1/6
Over 4.5	67% 4/6	0% 0/6

	Atletico Madrid	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	6.70	6.75
Corners conceded	3.10	3.63
Match total	9.80	10.38	9.42
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.40
Opponent cards	1.90	1.30
Match total	3.80	2.70	4.14
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 23 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.22league 3.85

Red cards0.17league 0.26

Cards 5+22%league 40%

Fouls25.3league 24.5

Penalties0.22league 0.29

Home wins43%league 44%

Atletico Madrid3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.0.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W4 May 24A · Mallorca1–00
D24 Feb 24A · Almeria2–21
W24 Sep 23H · Real Madrid3–11

Real Madrid3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 0

W14 May 25H · Mallorca2–10
W31 Mar 24H · Athletic Club2–02
L24 Sep 23A · Atletico Madrid1–33

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.