La Liga Gameweek 20 Sun, Jan 17 · 16:00 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
Atletico Madrid 2nd · 22 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Real Sociedad 5th · 16 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel352 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Atletico Madrid—%
Draw—%
Real Sociedad—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Madrid)

Forecast from 2 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Atletico Madrid and Real Sociedad. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Atletico MadridReal Sociedad
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
81 Current StrengthIn forecast 58
82 AttackIn forecast 62
87 DefenceIn forecast 48
96 Form indexContext 81
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Real Sociedad

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico MadridReal Sociedad
2.11 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.89
0.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89
1.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.36
0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63
+0.39 Goals minus xGContext +0.53
89% Scored inContext 67%
44% Clean sheetsContext 11%
17.56 ShotsContext 14.11
6.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.44
37% On target shareContext 39%
10.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.22
60% Box shareContext 56%
12% ConversionContext 13%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.14
9.56 Shots allowedContext 16.56
3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.22
2.89 BlocksContext 4.00
2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.56
71% Save rateContext 73%
60% PossessionIn forecast 49%
590 PassesContext 467
521 Accurate passesContext 399
88% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.05 Team ratingContext 6.89
12.11 FoulsContext 12.11
11.56 Fouls sufferedContext 9.78
2.22 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72
+0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.62
90% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
16.10 ShotsContext 13.80
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20
37% On target shareContext 38%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.80
58% Box shareContext 55%
12% ConversionContext 14%
2.20 OffsidesContext 1.75
10.20 Shots allowedContext 15.80
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70
2.90 BlocksContext 3.90
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
71% Save rateContext 70%
60% PossessionIn forecast 50%
588 PassesContext 481
517 Accurate passesContext 410
88% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.04 Team ratingContext 6.82
11.30 FoulsContext 12.40
11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +6.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Espanyol1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Manchester United2–01.7 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Alaves2–11.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Real Madrid2–11.1 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Osasuna4–01.9 xPts
Real Sociedad
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel352 km153 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
  • D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Atletico Madrid Real Sociedad
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 10 Jan7La Liga 2026-2027, 10 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km153 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one2.14.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-1-2 · vs Espanyol (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
13J. Oblak(G)
30Dani Martínez 17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 18Marc Pubill
23M. Hjulmand 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone
7K. Lee
11A. Lookman 15J. David
Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort
7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo
9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Atletico Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Real Sociedad Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
2.50
Conceded
0.75
Real Sociedad · Away 1.80points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-0-2
Scored
2.40
Conceded
2.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentAtletico MadridReal Sociedad
Espanyol W 1–0 A W 2–1 H
Real Madrid W 2–1 H L 1–4 A
Malaga W 2–0 H W 5–2 A
Points9 of 9 · 3.00 per game6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 13 meetings

7 Atletico Madrid wins3 draws0 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game2.10 – 0.80 Over 2.560% Both scored70% Clean sheets30% · 0%
  • 13 Sep 2026Real Sociedad0–3Atletico Madrid
  • 7 Mar 2026Atletico Madrid3–2Real Sociedad
  • 4 Jan 2026Real Sociedad1–1Atletico Madrid
  • 10 May 2025Atletico Madrid4–0Real Sociedad
  • 6 Oct 2024Real Sociedad1–1Atletico Madrid
  • 25 May 2024Real Sociedad0–2Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Atletico MadridReal SociedadForecast
Scored per game 2.111.89
Conceded per game 0.891.89
Match goals 3.003.78
Over 1.5 89%78%
Over 2.5 78%78%
Over 3.5 33%56%
Both teams scored 44%67%
Clean sheets 44%11%
Failed to score 11%33%
Games99
Atletico MadridReal SociedadForecast
Scored per game 2.001.90
Conceded per game 1.001.90
Match goals 3.003.80
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 80%80%
Over 3.5 30%50%
Both teams scored 50%80%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Atletico MadridReal SociedadLeague
Corners
Corners won5.577.00
Corners conceded3.574.89
Match total9.1411.899.91
Over 8.543% 3/7100% 9/9
Over 9.543% 3/778% 7/9
Over 10.543% 3/767% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.332.33
Opponent cards1.892.56
Match total4.224.894.73
Over 3.567% 6/978% 7/9
Over 4.544% 4/978% 7/9
Atletico MadridReal SociedadLeague
Corners
Corners won5.007.00
Corners conceded4.254.70
Match total9.2511.709.91
Over 8.550% 4/890% 9/10
Over 9.550% 4/880% 8/10
Over 10.550% 4/870% 7/10
Cards
Cards2.202.20
Opponent cards1.702.40
Match total3.904.604.73
Over 3.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Atletico Madrid9 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
8 3 76-90
Real Sociedad9 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
3 0-15
3 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 7 61-75
3 5 76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
2 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
8 3 76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
3 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Barcelona Elche Jan 1716:00 Atletico Madrid Real Sociedad Jan 1716:00 Villarreal Alaves Jan 1716:00 Malaga Real Madrid Jan 1716:00 Celta Vigo Valencia Jan 1716:00 Levante Espanyol Jan 1716:00 Real Betis Deportivo La Coruna Jan 1716:00 Getafe Athletic Club Jan 1716:00 Rayo Vallecano Sevilla Jan 1716:00 Racing Santander Osasuna Jan 1716:00