Villarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel388 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Villarreal—%
Draw—%
Alaves—%
Weather (Villarreal)
Forecast from 2 Jan
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Villarreal and Alaves. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Villarreal
+0.82
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.12xG against1.30
-
Trend
Villarreal
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Alaves
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Villarreal
1.7
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Villarreal
+0.82
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.12xG against1.30
-
Trend
Villarreal
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Villarreal
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Alaves
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Villarreal
1.7
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Villarreal
1.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
VillarrealAlaves
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
76
AttackIn forecast
48
73
DefenceIn forecast
55
79
Form indexContext
14
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
VillarrealAlaves
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
2.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.69
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
67%
Scored inContext
78%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
16.33
ShotsContext
12.78
6.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.38
39%
On target shareContext
37%
11.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.88
68%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.89
OffsidesContext
3.88
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.33
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
5.14
BlocksContext
4.50
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
77%
Save rateContext
74%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
573
PassesContext
340
510
Accurate passesContext
270
89%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.11
FoulsContext
13.67
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
13.33
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.52
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.50
ShotsContext
13.40
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
36%
On target shareContext
40%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
67%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.90
OffsidesContext
3.78
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.63
BlocksContext
4.22
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
72%
Save rateContext
74%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
560
PassesContext
341
493
Accurate passesContext
271
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.40
FoulsContext
13.60
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
WWLWD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km876 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
Alaves
LLDLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel388 km1,339 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 14 · 1 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -6.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 10 Jan | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 10 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 388 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 876 km | 1,339 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Last XI · not confirmed
25P. Gulácsi(G)
23Sergi Cardona
2Logan Costa
8J. Foyth
3A. Freeman
10Alberto Moleiro
16Carlos Macia
14Santi Comesaña
11I. Akhomach
21T. Oluwaseyi
22Ayoze Pérez
Alaves
Last XI · not confirmed
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach
2N. Valentini
16V. Koski
17Jonny
14F. Tenaglia
10Carles Aleñá
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
15L. Boyé
11Toni Martínez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Alaves
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Alaves · Away
0.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Villarreal | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Racing Santander | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Villarreal wins3 draws4 Alaves wins
Goals per game1.60 – 1.20
Over 2.550%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 28 Aug 2026Alaves1–0Villarreal
- 13 Mar 2026Alaves1–1Villarreal
- 10 Jan 2026Villarreal3–1Alaves
- 8 Mar 2025Alaves1–0Villarreal
- 9 Nov 2024Villarreal3–0Alaves
- 10 Feb 2024Alaves1–1Villarreal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 2.56 | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 56% | |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Villarreal | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.60 | |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.11 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 5.14 | |
| Match total | 11.55 | 9.43 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.78 | 4.11 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Villarreal | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 10.13 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.30 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Villarreal9 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Alaves9 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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