La Liga Gameweek 19 Sun, Jan 10 · 16:00 Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
Alaves 7th · 11 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Real Sociedad 5th · 16 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel77 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Alaves—%
Draw—%
Real Sociedad—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

Forecast from 26 Dec

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Alaves and Real Sociedad. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AlavesReal Sociedad
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
48 Current StrengthIn forecast 58
48 AttackIn forecast 62
55 DefenceIn forecast 48
14 Form indexContext 81
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Alaves

Attack—
Defense risk—

Real Sociedad

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AlavesReal Sociedad
1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.89
1.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89
1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.36
1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63
+0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.53
78% Scored inContext 67%
33% Clean sheetsContext 11%
12.78 ShotsContext 14.11
5.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.44
37% On target shareContext 39%
8.88 Shots in the boxContext 8.22
62% Box shareContext 56%
11% ConversionContext 13%
3.88 OffsidesContext 2.14
12.33 Shots allowedContext 16.56
4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.22
4.50 BlocksContext 4.00
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.56
74% Save rateContext 73%
42% PossessionIn forecast 49%
340 PassesContext 467
270 Accurate passesContext 399
80% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.89
13.67 FoulsContext 12.11
13.33 Fouls sufferedContext 9.78
1.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72
+0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.62
80% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
13.40 ShotsContext 13.80
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20
40% On target shareContext 38%
9.11 Shots in the boxContext 7.80
61% Box shareContext 55%
10% ConversionContext 14%
3.78 OffsidesContext 1.75
12.60 Shots allowedContext 15.80
4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70
4.22 BlocksContext 3.90
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
74% Save rateContext 70%
43% PossessionIn forecast 50%
341 PassesContext 481
271 Accurate passesContext 410
80% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.82
13.60 FoulsContext 12.40
13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Alaves
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,339 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 14 · 1 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -6.0 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Celta Vigo1–21.3 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Atletico Madrid1–21.2 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Athletic Club0–01.1 xPts
  • L15 SepH · Valencia0–11.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Racing Santander1–21.5 xPts
Real Sociedad
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel77 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
  • D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Alaves Real Sociedad
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 3 Jan7La Liga 2026-2027, 3 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km77 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,339 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Alaves Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Celta Vigo (A) 1–2, 18 Oct
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach 2N. Valentini 16V. Koski 17Jonny 14F. Tenaglia
10Carles Aleñá 8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez
15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez
Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort
7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo
9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Alaves Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Real Sociedad Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Alaves · Home 1.80points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
3-0-2
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
Real Sociedad · Away 1.80points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-0-2
Scored
2.40
Conceded
2.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentAlavesReal Sociedad
Celta Vigo L 1–2 A D 0–0 H
Atletico Madrid L 1–2 H L 0–3 H
Valencia L 0–1 H W 3–2 A
Points0 of 9 · 0.00 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Alaves wins4 draws3 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game0.90 – 1.20 Over 2.530% Both scored40% Clean sheets30% · 40%
  • 11 Apr 2026Real Sociedad3–3Alaves
  • 6 Dec 2025Alaves1–0Real Sociedad
  • 23 Apr 2025Alaves1–0Real Sociedad
  • 28 Aug 2024Real Sociedad1–2Alaves
  • 31 Mar 2024Alaves0–1Real Sociedad
  • 2 Jan 2024Real Sociedad1–1Alaves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AlavesReal SociedadForecast
Scored per game 1.441.89
Conceded per game 1.111.89
Match goals 2.563.78
Over 1.5 67%78%
Over 2.5 56%78%
Over 3.5 11%56%
Both teams scored 56%67%
Clean sheets 33%11%
Failed to score 22%33%
Games99
AlavesReal SociedadForecast
Scored per game 1.401.90
Conceded per game 1.201.90
Match goals 2.603.80
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 60%80%
Over 3.5 10%50%
Both teams scored 60%80%
Clean sheets 30%10%
Failed to score 20%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AlavesReal SociedadLeague
Corners
Corners won4.297.00
Corners conceded5.144.89
Match total9.4311.899.91
Over 8.543% 3/7100% 9/9
Over 9.543% 3/778% 7/9
Over 10.529% 2/767% 6/9
Cards
Cards1.782.33
Opponent cards2.332.56
Match total4.114.894.73
Over 3.556% 5/978% 7/9
Over 4.533% 3/978% 7/9
AlavesReal SociedadLeague
Corners
Corners won5.007.00
Corners conceded5.134.70
Match total10.1311.709.91
Over 8.550% 4/890% 9/10
Over 9.550% 4/880% 8/10
Over 10.538% 3/870% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.902.20
Opponent cards2.402.40
Match total4.304.604.73
Over 3.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 4.540% 4/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Alaves9 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
0-15
2 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 4 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 2 76-90
Real Sociedad9 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
3 0-15
3 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 7 61-75
3 5 76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1 0-15
2 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
5 3 76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
3 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Atletico Madrid Racing Santander Jan 1016:00 Athletic Club Villarreal Jan 1016:00 Valencia Malaga Jan 1016:00 Sevilla Celta Vigo Jan 1016:00 Espanyol Real Betis Jan 1016:00 Real Madrid Levante Jan 1016:00 Alaves Real Sociedad Jan 1016:00 Deportivo La Coruna Rayo Vallecano Jan 1016:00 Osasuna Barcelona Jan 1016:00 Elche Getafe Jan 1016:00