Atletico Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Atletico Madrid68.4%fair odds 1.46
Draw19.9%fair odds 5.02
Sevilla11.7%fair odds 8.55
Expected goals2.13 – 0.76total 2.89
Likeliest score2–012.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sevilla
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Atletico Madrid ↓ · Sevilla → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Atletico Madrid goals, columns Sevilla goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.6%7.95
- 1–011.3%8.82
- 2–19.6%10.42
- 1–19.5%10.53
- 3–08.9%11.22
- 3–16.8%14.70
- 0–06.0%16.57
- 4–04.7%21.10
- 0–13.8%26.58
- 2–23.7%27.33
Winning margin
23.6%
Atletico Madrid by 3+
fair 4.25
20.9%
Atletico Madrid by 2
fair 4.78
23.9%
Atletico Madrid by 1
fair 4.18
19.9%
Draw
fair 5.02
8.3%
Sevilla by 1
fair 12.09
2.7%
Sevilla by 2
fair 37.16
0.7%
Sevilla by 3+
fair 136.33
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Atletico Madrid goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
Sevilla goals
47%0
36%1
14%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid win | 68.4% | 69.6% | -1.2 pp |
| Draw | 19.9% | 18.9% | +1.0 pp |
| Sevilla win | 11.7% | 11.5% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 58.8% | -3.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.5% | 49.9% | -2.4 pp |
| Expected goals Atletico Madrid | 2.13 | 2.25 | -0.12 |
| Expected goals Sevilla | 0.76 | 0.81 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Atletico Madrid win68.4%1.46
- Draw19.9%5.02
- Sevilla win11.7%8.55
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw88.3%1.13
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or Sevilla80.1%1.25
- Double chance Sevilla or draw31.6%3.16
- Draw no bet Atletico Madrid85.4%1.17
- Draw no bet Sevilla14.6%6.85
Goals
- Over 0.594.0%1.06
- Over 1.578.9%1.27
- Over 2.555.2%1.81
- Over 3.532.8%3.05
- Over 4.516.7%6.00
- Under 1.521.1%4.73
- Under 2.544.8%2.23
- Under 3.567.2%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes47.5%2.11
- No52.5%1.90
- Yes and over 2.538.0%2.63
- Atletico Madrid win and yes27.8%3.60
- Draw and yes13.9%7.20
- Sevilla win and yes5.8%17.21
Team goals
- Atletico Madrid over 0.588.1%1.14
- Atletico Madrid over 1.562.7%1.59
- Atletico Madrid over 2.535.8%2.80
- Sevilla over 0.553.4%1.87
- Sevilla over 1.517.8%5.62
- Sevilla over 2.54.2%23.67
- Atletico Madrid clean sheet46.6%2.14
- Sevilla clean sheet11.9%8.39
- Atletico Madrid win to nil40.6%2.46
- Sevilla win to nil5.9%17.00
Handicap
- Atletico Madrid −1.544.5%2.25
- Atletico Madrid −2.523.6%4.25
- Sevilla +1.555.5%1.80
- Sevilla +2.576.4%1.31
- Sevilla −1.53.4%29.20
- Atletico Madrid +1.596.6%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored102
Favourite won52.9%
Avg chance given to result41.2%
1X2 Brier0.575
Over 2.5 called right58.8%
BTTS called right55.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 38.2% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 46 | 44.5% | 41.3% |
| 50–60% | 20 | 53.9% | 55.0% |
| 60–70% | 12 | 63.8% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 74.9% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 71 of 102 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5735 | 0.5691 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.1% | 41.8% |
| Favourite won | 54.9% | 53.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 71 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 102 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.