Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla – 1 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 11 Sat, Nov 1 · 15:15 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico Madrid 4th · 19 pts · 10 played WWDWW

3–0Full time

Sevilla 11th · 13 pts · 10 played LWWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were clear favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 48). Atletico Madrid had 4.8 days of rest, Sevilla 7.8 and had to travel 390 km.

Away travel390 kmRest days4.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Atletico Madrid68%

Draw20%

Sevilla12%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.76

Atletico Madrid69%

Draw19%

Sevilla12%

Expected goals 2.21 – 0.81

Atletico Madrid68%

Draw20%

Sevilla12%

Expected goals 2.09 – 0.77

Atletico Madrid61%

Draw23%

Sevilla16%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.86

Atletico Madrid70%

Draw19%

Sevilla11%

Expected goals 2.25 – 0.81

Over 2.5 55% Both score 47% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez

Cards per match 5.6
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 116

Team strength

Atletico Madrid

Sevilla

84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

81 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

82 AttackIn forecast 48

87 DefenceIn forecast 57

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sevilla

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico Madrid

Sevilla

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 0.92

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

+0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.78

100% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.50 ShotsContext 10.30

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

44% On target shareContext 31%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

65% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 17%

2.33 OffsidesContext 4.14

9.50 Shots allowedContext 11.00

2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

2.38 BlocksContext 4.57

2.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

70% Save rateContext 76%

54% PossessionIn forecast 53%

516 PassesContext 410

447 Accurate passesContext 335

87% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.80

11.70 FoulsContext 15.40

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.71 xGVia Att/Def 0.92

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

+0.49 Goals minus xGContext +0.78

90% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.30 ShotsContext 10.30

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

45% On target shareContext 31%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

67% Box shareContext 66%

18% ConversionContext 17%

2.50 OffsidesContext 4.14

11.90 Shots allowedContext 11.00

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

3.44 BlocksContext 4.57

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

64% Save rateContext 76%

51% PossessionIn forecast 53%

484 PassesContext 410

421 Accurate passesContext 335

87% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.80

10.50 FoulsContext 15.40

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km781 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sevilla

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel390 km1,482 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atletico Madrid	Sevilla
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.8La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Oct	7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	390 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	781 km	1,482 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13J. Oblak(G)

3M. Ruggeri 17D. Hancko 2J. Giménez 14Marcos Llorente

23N. González 6Koke 10Álex Baena 20G. Simeone

19J. Alvarez 9A. Sørloth

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Sevilla Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

12G. Suazo 23Marcão 3César Azpilicueta 2J. Carmona Navarro

20M. Sow 19B. Mendy

11R. Vargas 14Peque Fernández 16Juanlu Sánchez

7Isaac Romero

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Sevilla Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atletico Madrid+0.8 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Sevilla-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 2.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-0
Scored: 2.40
Conceded: 1.00

Sevilla · Away 1.80points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-2
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Atletico Madrid	Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano	W 3–2 H	W 1–0 A
Mallorca	D 1–1 A	L 1–3 H
Villarreal	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 H
Alaves	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 A
Elche	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Points	9 of 15 · 1.80 per game	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 Atletico Madrid wins1 draws3 Sevilla wins

Goals per game1.90 – 1.00 Over 2.540% Both scored50% Clean sheets30% · 20%

6 Apr 2025Sevilla1–2Atletico Madrid
8 Dec 2024Atletico Madrid4–3Sevilla
11 Feb 2024Sevilla1–0Atletico Madrid
23 Dec 2023Atletico Madrid1–0Sevilla
4 Mar 2023Atletico Madrid6–1Sevilla
1 Oct 2022Sevilla0–2Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atletico Madrid	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.70
Conceded per game	1.00	1.60
Match goals	2.80	3.30	2.89
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	80%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	80%	47%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	10

	Atletico Madrid	Sevilla	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.70
Conceded per game	1.00	1.60
Match goals	2.80	3.30	2.89
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	80%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	80%	47%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atletico Madrid	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.60
Corners conceded	2.80	5.30
Match total	8.80	9.90	9.82
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.30	3.00
Opponent cards	2.60	2.00
Match total	4.90	5.00	4.35
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

	Atletico Madrid	Sevilla	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	4.60
Corners conceded	3.60	5.30
Match total	9.20	9.90	9.82
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	3.00
Opponent cards	2.10	2.00
Match total	4.30	5.00	4.35
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 116 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.28league 4.09

Red cards0.27league 0.26

Cards 5+62%league 45%

Fouls25.4league 24.7

Penalties0.30league 0.34

Home wins37%league 46%

Atletico Madrid8 with this referee

Record4-2-2 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W24 Sep 25H · Rayo Vallecano3–23
W31 Aug 24A · Athletic Club1–01
L3 Jan 24A · Girona3–41
W10 Sep 22H · Celta Vigo4–12
W26 Feb 22H · Celta Vigo2–04

Sevilla14 with this referee

Record5-4-5 Cards · opp.3.2 · 3.0 Pens for · against3 · 1

D4 May 25H · Leganes2–24
L9 Feb 25H · Barcelona1–45
W22 Apr 24H · Mallorca2–10
L12 Jan 24H · Alaves2–34
D4 Nov 23A · Celta Vigo1–15

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.