Atletico Madrid vs Valencia – 13 Dec 2025

La Liga Gameweek 16 Sat, Dec 13 · 13:00 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico Madrid 4th · 31 pts · 16 played WWWLL

2–1Full time

Valencia 16th · 15 pts · 15 played LDWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were clear favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 51). Absences weigh more on Valencia. Atletico Madrid had 6.7 days of rest, Valencia 5.9 and had to travel 302 km.

Away travel302 kmRest days6.7 · 5.9Matches / 14d3 · 2

Atletico Madrid69%

Draw20%

Valencia11%

Expected goals 2.13 – 0.75

Atletico Madrid69%

Draw19%

Valencia12%

Expected goals 2.20 – 0.81

Atletico Madrid68%

Draw20%

Valencia12%

Expected goals 2.08 – 0.76

Atletico Madrid62%

Draw23%

Valencia15%

Expected goals 1.90 – 0.84

Atletico Madrid70%

Draw19%

Valencia11%

Expected goals 2.25 – 0.80

Over 2.5 55% Both score 47% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainCesar Soto Grado

Cards per match 5.2
Penalties per match 0.22
Matches 32

Team strength

Atletico Madrid

Valencia

85 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

81 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

79 AttackIn forecast 39

87 DefenceIn forecast 52

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico Madrid

Valencia

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.93

0.94 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.53

1.64 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

94% Scored inContext 67%

38% Clean sheetsContext 27%

12.88 ShotsContext 10.13

5.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.93

43% On target shareContext 29%

8.75 Shots in the boxContext 6.71

67% Box shareContext 62%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.10

10.13 Shots allowedContext 12.93

2.81 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

2.43 BlocksContext 3.54

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

70% Save rateContext 67%

54% PossessionIn forecast 47%

503 PassesContext 398

431 Accurate passesContext 326

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.73

10.88 FoulsContext 11.73

10.44 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

1.94 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 16 and 15 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.64 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

+0.36 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

90% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.90 ShotsContext 11.00

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

43% On target shareContext 28%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.90

67% Box shareContext 63%

16% ConversionContext 7%

2.75 OffsidesContext 2.14

11.90 Shots allowedContext 11.80

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

2.70 BlocksContext 3.13

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

72% Save rateContext 63%

54% PossessionIn forecast 48%

484 PassesContext 421

409 Accurate passesContext 348

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.76

11.00 FoulsContext 12.10

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid

Rest6.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,654 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Valencia

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel302 km604 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Atletico Madrid	Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.7La Liga 2025-2026, 6 Dec	5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,654 km	604 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	6.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13J. Oblak(G)

3M. Ruggeri 17D. Hancko 18Marc Pubill 16N. Molina

23N. González 6Koke 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone

19J. Alvarez 9A. Sørloth

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Valencia Confirmed XI

3-5-2

25Julen Agirrezabala(G)

3Copete 24E. Cömert 20D. Foulquier

21Jesús Vázquez 10André Almeida 18Pepelu 23F. Ugrinic 12Thierry Correia

16Diego López 9Hugo Duro

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Valencia Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Atletico Madrid+1.1 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Valencia-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 2.75points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 7-1-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 0.75

Valencia · Away 0.43points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-4
Scored: 0.57
Conceded: 2.29

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 13 this season

Opponent	Atletico Madrid	Valencia
Athletic Club	L 0–1 A	W 2–0 H
Barcelona	L 1–3 A	L 0–6 A
Oviedo	W 2–0 H	L 1–2 H
Getafe	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 H
Levante	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 H
Sevilla	W 3–0 H	D 1–1 H
Real Betis	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Real Madrid	W 5–2 H	L 0–4 A
Rayo Vallecano	W 3–2 H	D 1–1 A
Villarreal	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 H
Alaves	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 A
Espanyol	L 1–2 A	D 2–2 A
Points	28 of 39 · 2.15 per game	14 of 39 · 1.08 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

8 Atletico Madrid wins1 draws1 Valencia wins

Goals per game2.20 – 0.90 Over 2.570% Both scored30% Clean sheets60% · 10%

22 Feb 2025Valencia0–3Atletico Madrid
15 Sep 2024Atletico Madrid3–0Valencia
28 Jan 2024Atletico Madrid2–0Valencia
16 Sep 2023Valencia3–0Atletico Madrid
18 Mar 2023Atletico Madrid3–0Valencia
29 Aug 2022Valencia0–1Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Atletico Madrid	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.75	0.93
Conceded per game	0.94	1.53
Match goals	2.69	2.47	2.88
Over 1.5	81%	80%
Over 2.5	38%	40%	55%
Over 3.5	25%	20%
Both teams scored	56%	47%	47%
Clean sheets	38%	27%
Failed to score	6%	33%
Games	16	15

	Atletico Madrid	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	0.80
Conceded per game	0.80	1.50
Match goals	2.70	2.30	2.88
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	55%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	47%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Atletico Madrid	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	7.06	4.75
Corners conceded	3.25	5.42
Match total	10.31	10.17	9.62
Over 8.5	75% 12/16	58% 7/12
Over 9.5	44% 7/16	50% 6/12
Over 10.5	44% 7/16	50% 6/12
Cards
Cards	2.06	1.87
Opponent cards	2.31	2.27
Match total	4.37	4.14	4.39
Over 3.5	69% 11/16	53% 8/15
Over 4.5	44% 7/16	47% 7/15

	Atletico Madrid	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	7.70	4.00
Corners conceded	4.00	5.43
Match total	11.70	9.43	9.62
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.70	2.00
Opponent cards	2.10	2.80
Match total	3.80	4.80	4.39
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Cesar Soto Grado Spain · 32 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.91league 4.12

Red cards0.28league 0.29

Cards 5+63%league 46%

Fouls24.0league 24.7

Penalties0.22league 0.33

Home wins47%league 47%

Atletico Madrid5 with this referee

Record3-2-0 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.4 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

D5 Oct 25A · Celta Vigo1–13
D23 Aug 25H · Elche1–11
W3 Mar 24H · Real Betis2–11
W31 Jan 24H · Rayo Vallecano2–10
W23 Dec 23H · Sevilla1–08

Valencia3 with this referee

Record0-2-1 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L16 May 24A · Real Sociedad0–12
D17 Feb 24H · Sevilla0–00
D25 Nov 23H · Celta Vigo0–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.