La Liga Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 13 · 16:00 Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
Atletico Madrid 2nd · 22 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Valencia 19th · 6 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel302 kmRest days3.8 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Atletico Madrid—%
Draw—%
Valencia—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Madrid)

Forecast from 28 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Atletico Madrid and Valencia. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Atletico MadridValencia
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
81 Current StrengthIn forecast 51
82 AttackIn forecast 39
87 DefenceIn forecast 52
96 Form indexContext 36
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Atletico Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Valencia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Atletico MadridValencia
2.11 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67
0.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67
1.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.04
0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50
+0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.37
89% Scored inContext 44%
44% Clean sheetsContext 33%
17.56 ShotsContext 11.11
6.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00
37% On target shareContext 24%
10.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.50
60% Box shareContext 58%
12% ConversionContext 6%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.11
9.56 Shots allowedContext 15.11
3.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.11
2.89 BlocksContext 4.00
2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
71% Save rateContext 70%
60% PossessionIn forecast 46%
590 PassesContext 422
521 Accurate passesContext 346
88% Pass accuracyContext 82%
7.05 Team ratingContext 6.70
12.11 FoulsContext 10.89
11.56 Fouls sufferedContext 11.44
2.22 Yellow cardsContext 2.22
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50
+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.18
90% Scored inContext 50%
40% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.10 ShotsContext 11.90
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33
37% On target shareContext 25%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
58% Box shareContext 59%
12% ConversionContext 8%
2.20 OffsidesContext 2.00
10.20 Shots allowedContext 14.70
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
2.90 BlocksContext 3.78
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
71% Save rateContext 70%
60% PossessionIn forecast 44%
588 PassesContext 400
517 Accurate passesContext 326
88% Pass accuracyContext 82%
7.04 Team ratingContext 6.73
11.30 FoulsContext 10.90
11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Atletico Madrid
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,532 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +6.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Espanyol1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Manchester United2–01.7 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Alaves2–11.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Real Madrid2–11.1 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Osasuna4–01.9 xPts
Valencia
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel302 km601 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 36 · 5 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Athletic Club0–01.4 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Racing Santander2–21.2 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Real Sociedad2–31.6 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Alaves1–00.9 xPts
  • L11 SepA · Sevilla0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Atletico Madrid Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 25Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 9 Dec7La Liga 2026-2027, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,532 km601 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 51 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Atletico Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-1-2 · vs Espanyol (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
13J. Oblak(G)
30Dani Martínez 17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 18Marc Pubill
23M. Hjulmand 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone
7K. Lee
11A. Lookman 15J. David
Valencia Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Athletic Club (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà 12J. de Haas 5César Tárrega 24Pablo Maffeo
2G. Rodríguez 18Pepelu
7A. Danjuma 8Javi Guerra 19Dani Raba
9Hugo Duro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Atletico Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Valencia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Atletico Madrid · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
2.50
Conceded
0.75
Valencia · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentAtletico MadridValencia
Alaves W 2–1 A W 1–0 A
Real Sociedad W 3–0 A L 2–3 H
Athletic Club L 0–3 A D 0–0 H
Sevilla W 3–1 A L 0–1 A
Points9 of 12 · 2.25 per game4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

8 Atletico Madrid wins1 draws1 Valencia wins
Goals per game2.20 – 0.90 Over 2.570% Both scored30% Clean sheets60% · 10%
  • 2 May 2026Valencia0–2Atletico Madrid
  • 13 Dec 2025Atletico Madrid2–1Valencia
  • 22 Feb 2025Valencia0–3Atletico Madrid
  • 15 Sep 2024Atletico Madrid3–0Valencia
  • 28 Jan 2024Atletico Madrid2–0Valencia
  • 16 Sep 2023Valencia3–0Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Atletico MadridValenciaForecast
Scored per game 2.110.67
Conceded per game 0.891.67
Match goals 3.002.33
Over 1.5 89%44%
Over 2.5 78%44%
Over 3.5 33%44%
Both teams scored 44%33%
Clean sheets 44%33%
Failed to score 11%56%
Games99
Atletico MadridValenciaForecast
Scored per game 2.000.90
Conceded per game 1.001.60
Match goals 3.002.50
Over 1.5 90%50%
Over 2.5 80%50%
Over 3.5 30%50%
Both teams scored 50%40%
Clean sheets 40%30%
Failed to score 10%50%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Atletico MadridValenciaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.574.00
Corners conceded3.574.44
Match total9.148.449.91
Over 8.543% 3/756% 5/9
Over 9.543% 3/756% 5/9
Over 10.543% 3/722% 2/9
Cards
Cards2.332.22
Opponent cards1.892.22
Match total4.224.444.73
Over 3.567% 6/967% 6/9
Over 4.544% 4/956% 5/9
Atletico MadridValenciaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.004.30
Corners conceded4.254.80
Match total9.259.109.91
Over 8.550% 4/860% 6/10
Over 9.550% 4/860% 6/10
Over 10.550% 4/830% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.202.20
Opponent cards1.702.20
Match total3.904.404.73
Over 3.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Atletico Madrid9 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
8 3 76-90
Valencia9 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
1 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 6 76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
2 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
8 3 76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
1 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Atletico Madrid Valencia Dec 1316:00 Villarreal Rayo Vallecano Dec 1316:00 Malaga Barcelona Dec 1316:00 Levante Alaves Dec 1316:00 Espanyol Celta Vigo Dec 1316:00 Real Madrid Osasuna Dec 1316:00 Real Betis Racing Santander Dec 1316:00 Deportivo La Coruna Athletic Club Dec 1316:00 Real Sociedad Getafe Dec 1316:00 Elche Sevilla Dec 1316:00