La Liga Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 13 · 16:00 Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
Malaga 20th · 4 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Barcelona 1st · 27 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel769 kmRest days7 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Malaga—%
Draw—%
Barcelona—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Málaga)

Forecast from 28 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Malaga and Barcelona. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

MalagaBarcelona
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
41 Current StrengthIn forecast 93
28 AttackIn forecast 97
31 DefenceIn forecast 92
15 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Malaga

Attack—
Defense risk—

Barcelona

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

MalagaBarcelona
0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.33
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
0.84 xGVia Att/Def 3.73
1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98
-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.60
56% Scored inContext 100%
11% Clean sheetsContext 44%
11.33 ShotsContext 21.11
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.44
27% On target shareContext 40%
6.67 Shots in the boxContext 14.56
62% Box shareContext 70%
6% ConversionContext 21%
1.63 OffsidesContext 3.11
14.89 Shots allowedContext 6.78
5.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
4.00 BlocksContext 1.60
3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43
64% Save rateContext 68%
51% PossessionIn forecast 70%
481 PassesContext 697
417 Accurate passesContext 632
87% Pass accuracyContext 91%
6.70 Team ratingContext 7.42
11.56 FoulsContext 9.67
11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 10.22
2.44 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 4.30
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
0.84 xGVia Att/Def 3.55
1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.95
-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.75
60% Scored inContext 100%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
11.40 ShotsContext 22.40
3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.90
28% On target shareContext 40%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 15.00
64% Box shareContext 67%
7% ConversionContext 19%
1.63 OffsidesContext 3.30
14.70 Shots allowedContext 6.30
5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44
3.70 BlocksContext 1.43
3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25
66% Save rateContext 64%
51% PossessionIn forecast 72%
474 PassesContext 712
408 Accurate passesContext 651
86% Pass accuracyContext 91%
6.74 Team ratingContext 7.38
10.90 FoulsContext 9.50
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Malaga
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km313 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 15 · 2 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Real Sociedad2–51.5 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Espanyol1–11.6 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Getafe0–11.2 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Villarreal1–31.3 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Celta Vigo1–11.2 xPts
Barcelona
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel769 km1,788 km in 14d
Schedule load26%Moderate
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Real Betis5–22.1 xPts
  • W13 OctA · Galatasaray4–12.1 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Getafe3–02.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Sevilla3–12.3 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Racing Santander7–22.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Malaga Barcelona
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 26
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 6 Dec4.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 8 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km769 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways313 km1,788 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 32 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Malaga Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 2–5, 18 Oct
1Alfonso Herrero(G)
12José Salinas 15Ángel Recio 20F. Calero Villa 31Rafita
18Pablo Martínez 8Carlos Dotor 23Izan Merino 10David Larrubia
9Chupe 21Adrián Niño
Barcelona Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Betis (A) 5–2, 17 Oct
1Joan García(G)
12Xavi Espart 18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 23J. Koundé
8Pedri 16Rodri
14K. Adeyemi 7Fermín López 10Lamine Yamal
9G. de Jesus

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Malaga Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Barcelona Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Malaga · Home 0.60points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
0-3-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
2.00
Barcelona · Away 3.00points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
5-0-0
Scored
4.40
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentMalagaBarcelona
Getafe L 0–1 A W 3–0 H
Levante D 0–0 H W 4–2 A
Points1 of 6 · 0.50 per game6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

MalagaBarcelonaForecast
Scored per game 0.674.33
Conceded per game 2.001.00
Match goals 2.675.33
Over 1.5 78%100%
Over 2.5 33%89%
Over 3.5 33%78%
Both teams scored 56%56%
Clean sheets 11%44%
Failed to score 44%0%
Games99
MalagaBarcelonaForecast
Scored per game 0.674.30
Conceded per game 2.001.10
Match goals 2.675.40
Over 1.5 78%100%
Over 2.5 33%90%
Over 3.5 33%80%
Both teams scored 56%70%
Clean sheets 11%30%
Failed to score 44%0%
Games910

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

MalagaBarcelonaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.566.00
Corners conceded4.892.88
Match total10.458.889.91
Over 8.578% 7/938% 3/8
Over 9.567% 6/938% 3/8
Over 10.544% 4/938% 3/8
Cards
Cards2.441.33
Opponent cards2.331.78
Match total4.773.114.73
Over 3.567% 6/944% 4/9
Over 4.567% 6/933% 3/9
MalagaBarcelonaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.706.33
Corners conceded5.102.44
Match total10.808.779.91
Over 8.580% 8/1033% 3/9
Over 9.570% 7/1033% 3/9
Over 10.550% 5/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.601.30
Opponent cards2.301.80
Match total4.903.104.73
Over 3.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 4.570% 7/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Malaga9 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
1 2 0-15
5 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 3 61-75
2 4 76-90
Barcelona9 games · scored 39 · conceded 9
6 1 0-15
7 3 16-30
5 31-45
5 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
9 2 76-90
Malaga10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
1 2 0-15
5 16-30
1 3 31-45
1 1 46-60
3 3 61-75
2 5 76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 43 · conceded 11
6 1 0-15
8 4 16-30
5 31-45
8 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
10 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Atletico Madrid Valencia Dec 1316:00 Villarreal Rayo Vallecano Dec 1316:00 Malaga Barcelona Dec 1316:00 Levante Alaves Dec 1316:00 Espanyol Celta Vigo Dec 1316:00 Real Madrid Osasuna Dec 1316:00 Real Betis Racing Santander Dec 1316:00 Deportivo La Coruna Athletic Club Dec 1316:00 Real Sociedad Getafe Dec 1316:00 Elche Sevilla Dec 1316:00