Auxerre
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Auxerre
16th · 19 pts · 26 played
WLDDL
3–0Full time
Stade Brestois 29
11th · 36 pts · 26 played
DWWWL
Auxerre34.9%fair odds 2.87
Draw30.8%fair odds 3.25
Stade Brestois 2934.3%fair odds 2.91
Expected goals1.09 – 1.08total 2.17
Likeliest score1–114.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Stade Brestois 29
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Auxerre ↓ · Stade Brestois 29 → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 14.2 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Auxerre goals, columns Stade Brestois 29 goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–114.2%7.07
- 0–012.1%8.25
- 1–011.7%8.53
- 0–111.6%8.62
- 2–17.3%13.64
- 1–27.3%13.78
- 2–06.8%14.73
- 0–26.7%15.03
- 2–24.0%25.25
- 3–12.7%37.51
Winning margin
4.4%
Auxerre by 3+
fair 22.98
9.9%
Auxerre by 2
fair 10.12
20.7%
Auxerre by 1
fair 4.84
30.8%
Draw
fair 3.25
20.4%
Stade Brestois 29 by 1
fair 4.89
9.7%
Stade Brestois 29 by 2
fair 10.33
4.2%
Stade Brestois 29 by 3+
fair 23.75
Goal distribution
Total goals
12%0
23%1
28%2
19%3
11%4
7%5+
Auxerre goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
Stade Brestois 29 goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre win | 34.9% | 35.3% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 30.8% | 29.8% | +1.0 pp |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 34.3% | 34.9% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 37.0% | 40.2% | -3.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 44.6% | 47.3% | -2.7 pp |
| Expected goals Auxerre | 1.09 | 1.15 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Stade Brestois 29 | 1.08 | 1.14 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Auxerre win34.9%2.87
- Draw30.8%3.25
- Stade Brestois 29 win34.3%2.91
- Double chance Auxerre or draw65.7%1.52
- Double chance Auxerre or Stade Brestois 2969.2%1.44
- Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or draw65.1%1.54
- Draw no bet Auxerre50.4%1.98
- Draw no bet Stade Brestois 2949.6%2.02
Goals
- Over 0.587.9%1.14
- Over 1.564.5%1.55
- Over 2.537.0%2.71
- Over 3.517.5%5.71
- Over 4.56.9%14.41
- Under 1.535.5%2.82
- Under 2.563.0%1.59
- Under 3.582.5%1.21
Both teams to score
- Yes44.6%2.24
- No55.4%1.80
- Yes and over 2.530.4%3.29
- Auxerre win and yes13.0%7.67
- Draw and yes18.7%5.36
- Stade Brestois 29 win and yes12.9%7.78
Team goals
- Auxerre over 0.566.4%1.51
- Auxerre over 1.529.8%3.36
- Auxerre over 2.59.8%10.23
- Stade Brestois 29 over 0.566.0%1.51
- Stade Brestois 29 over 1.529.4%3.40
- Stade Brestois 29 over 2.59.6%10.46
- Auxerre clean sheet34.0%2.95
- Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet33.6%2.98
- Auxerre win to nil21.8%4.58
- Stade Brestois 29 win to nil21.5%4.66
Handicap
- Auxerre −1.514.2%7.03
- Auxerre −2.54.4%22.98
- Stade Brestois 29 +1.585.8%1.17
- Stade Brestois 29 +2.595.6%1.05
- Stade Brestois 29 −1.513.9%7.20
- Auxerre +1.586.1%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored235
Favourite won55.3%
Avg chance given to result42.3%
1X2 Brier0.575
Over 2.5 called right54.0%
BTTS called right52.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 35 | 38.0% | 51.4% |
| 40–50% | 74 | 44.9% | 45.9% |
| 50–60% | 57 | 54.3% | 50.9% |
| 60–70% | 37 | 64.2% | 70.3% |
| 70–80% | 24 | 74.0% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 87.4% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 182 of 235 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5907 | 0.5812 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 41.4% |
| Favourite won | 52.2% | 53.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 182 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 235 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.