Auxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Auxerre
16th · 19 pts · 26 played
WLDDL
3–0Full time
Stade Brestois 29
11th · 36 pts · 26 played
DWWWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
Stade Brestois 29 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Auxerre. Auxerre had 7.9 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 6.9 and had to travel 602 km.
Away travel602 kmRest days7.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Auxerre35%
Draw31%
Stade Brestois 2934%
Auxerre31%
Draw27%
Stade Brestois 2942%
Auxerre34%
Draw31%
Stade Brestois 2935%
Auxerre29%
Draw30%
Stade Brestois 2941%
Auxerre35%
Draw30%
Stade Brestois 2935%
Over 2.5 37%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Auxerre)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceHakim Ben el Salem Hadj
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 12
Team strength
AuxerreStade Brestois 29
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
39
AttackIn forecast
47
25
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AuxerreStade Brestois 29
0.73
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.31
1.38
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
42%
Scored inContext
69%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
10.23
ShotsContext
11.19
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.58
30%
On target shareContext
32%
6.42
Shots in the boxContext
6.96
62%
Box shareContext
63%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.63
11.50
Shots allowedContext
12.81
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.14
BlocksContext
3.80
3.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
72%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
370
PassesContext
363
299
Accurate passesContext
285
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.04
FoulsContext
12.92
13.92
Fouls sufferedContext
11.62
2.08
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.15
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
20%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.10
ShotsContext
9.80
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
22%
On target shareContext
30%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
63%
Box shareContext
60%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.20
12.80
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
4.11
BlocksContext
4.70
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
77%
Save rateContext
76%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
376
PassesContext
345
300
Accurate passesContext
264
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.95
12.00
FoulsContext
12.50
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Auxerre
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,040 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Stade Brestois 29
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel602 km2,105 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Auxerre |
Stade Brestois 29 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Mar | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 602 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,040 km | 2,105 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
14G. Mensah
24B. Okoh
20S. Diomandé
27L. Sy
22F. Oppegård
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
28R. Faivre
19D. Namaso
10L. Sinayoko
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
27D. Guindo
44S. Coulibaly
4M. Diaz
77K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
7É. Dina Ebimbe
24L. Tousart
10R. Del Castillo
14R. Labeau-Lascary
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Auxerre
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Auxerre+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Stade Brestois 29-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Auxerre · Home
0.92points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-7
- Scored
- 0.77
- Conceded
- 1.15
Stade Brestois 29 · Away
0.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-7
- Scored
- 1.08
- Conceded
- 1.77
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Auxerre | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| Marseille | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Strasbourg | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Lorient | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Rennes | L 0–3 HD 2–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Metz | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Toulouse | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Lens | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Lille | L 3–4 H | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Lyon | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Angers | L 0–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| LE Havre | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Monaco | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Nantes | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Nice | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Points | 19 of 75 · 0.76 per game | 33 of 75 · 1.32 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Auxerre wins2 draws2 Stade Brestois 29 wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 4 Jan 2026Stade Brestois 292–0Auxerre
- 14 Feb 2025Stade Brestois 292–2Auxerre
- 27 Sep 2024Auxerre3–0Stade Brestois 29
- 14 May 2023Stade Brestois 291–0Auxerre
- 2 Oct 2022Auxerre1–1Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Auxerre | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.73 | 1.31 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.12 | 2.69 | 2.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 54% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 46% | 37% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 42% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 58% | 31% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Auxerre | Stade Brestois 29 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 2.20 | 2.17 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 20% | 37% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 80% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Auxerre | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.62 | 4.42 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.46 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 9.08 | 9.59 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 14/26 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 9/26 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 7/26 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.69 | 1.77 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 20/26 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 13/26 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Auxerre | Stade Brestois 29 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 9.89 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj France · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 3.71
Red cards0.33league 0.27
Cards 5+25%league 37%
Fouls21.5league 23.8
Penalties0.42league 0.37
Home wins50%league 49%
Auxerre1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L26 Oct 25H · LE Havre0–12
Stade Brestois 292 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D14 Feb 26A · Lille1–11
- L17 May 25A · Nice0–64
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Auxerre26 games · scored 19 · conceded 36
3
4
0-15
2
7
16-30
4
6
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
11
76-90
Stade Brestois 2926 games · scored 34 · conceded 36
6
5
0-15
5
8
16-30
6
6
31-45
6
3
46-60
4
6
61-75
7
8
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
