AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Alverca were slight favourites.
Alverca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 13). AVS had 7 days of rest, Alverca 6.1 and had to travel.
Rest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
AVS31%
Draw28%
Alverca41%
AVS31%
Draw27%
Alverca42%
AVS31%
Draw28%
Alverca41%
AVS25%
Draw27%
Alverca48%
AVS31%
Draw27%
Alverca42%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva
- Cards per match 8.5
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 4
Team strength
AVS
Alverca
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
17
AttackIn forecast
38
21
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSAlverca
0.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
2.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
43%
Scored inContext
86%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
9.86
ShotsContext
8.14
2.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.43
22%
On target shareContext
42%
5.83
Shots in the boxContext
4.86
54%
Box shareContext
60%
6%
ConversionContext
14%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.40
13.57
Shots allowedContext
13.14
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
3.14
BlocksContext
3.71
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
47%
Save rateContext
76%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
317
PassesContext
328
240
Accurate passesContext
257
76%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.57
Team ratingContext
6.79
15.71
FoulsContext
14.71
12.86
Fouls sufferedContext
14.71
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.57
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.14
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
50%
Scored inContext
86%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.70
ShotsContext
8.14
2.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.43
23%
On target shareContext
42%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
4.86
58%
Box shareContext
60%
6%
ConversionContext
14%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.40
13.60
Shots allowedContext
13.14
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
3.50
BlocksContext
3.71
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
54%
Save rateContext
76%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
309
PassesContext
328
233
Accurate passesContext
257
76%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.79
16.60
FoulsContext
14.71
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.71
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.57
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alverca
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21 | 20.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
93Simão(G)
12Leonardo Rivas
19Tiago Galletto
4S. Bane
2Diogo Spencer
15Jaume Grau
6Gustavo Assunção
10Rafael Barbosa
8Pedro Lima
11B. Akinsola
7Tómané
Alverca
Confirmed XI
13André Gomes(G)
33B. Meupiyou
5Sergi Gómez
4Kaiky Naves
55Francisco Chissumba
8Alexsandro Amorim
6D. Gui
2Zoubdi
20Figueiredo
9M. Milovanović
18Lincoln
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
0.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Alverca · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | AVS | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Points | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.57 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.43 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.71 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| AVS | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.57 | 1.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.43 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.71 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 7.60 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 6.15 | 5.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 71% 5/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| AVS | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 7.60 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 6.15 | 5.19 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards8.50league 5.06
Red cards0.00league 0.26
Cards 5+100%league 64%
Fouls30.8league 27.8
Penalties0.50league 0.45
Home wins25%league 36%
AVSNo previous matches with this referee.
AlvercaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS7 games · scored 4 · conceded 17
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Alverca7 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 6 · conceded 22
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
1
3
31-45
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
Alverca7 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
