AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Casa Pia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 16). AVS had 5.8 days of rest, Casa Pia 6.8 and had to travel.
Rest days5.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
AVS34%
Draw29%
Casa Pia37%
AVS35%
Draw27%
Casa Pia38%
AVS34%
Draw29%
Casa Pia37%
AVS28%
Draw28%
Casa Pia44%
AVS35%
Draw27%
Casa Pia38%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalPedro Ramalho
- Cards per match 6.7
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 7
Team strength
AVS
Casa Pia
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
17
AttackIn forecast
13
21
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCasa Pia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSCasa Pia
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
60%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.90
ShotsContext
6.30
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.75
24%
On target shareContext
35%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
4.25
65%
Box shareContext
60%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.60
Shots allowedContext
14.60
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.00
BlocksContext
3.60
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
60%
Save rateContext
67%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
317
PassesContext
339
243
Accurate passesContext
265
77%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.83
14.60
FoulsContext
14.80
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
3.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Casa Pia
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
Casa Pia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 9 Aug | 6.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.2 | 9.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
93Simão(G)
24Kiki
42C. Devenish
33Aderllan Santos
5Guillem Molina
15Jaume Grau
27Ángel Algobia
10Rafael Barbosa
8Pedro Lima
11B. Akinsola
9Jordi Escobar
Casa Pia
Confirmed XI
1P. Sequeira(G)
2D. Tchamba
6José Fonte
4João Goulart
12F. Benaissa-Yahia
24I. Mohamed
20Y. Oukili
72Gaizka Larrazabal
13Oluwakorede Osundina
90Cassiano
29J. Livolant
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Casa Pia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
No home games yet this season.
Casa Pia · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 AVS wins2 draws0 Casa Pia wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 19 Apr 2025AVS1–1Casa Pia
- 8 Dec 2024Casa Pia1–1AVS
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| AVS | Casa Pia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 2.00 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.00 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 5.00 | 4.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| AVS | Casa Pia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 6.11 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 10.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.30 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.30 | 4.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Pedro Ramalho Portugal · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.43league 4.75
Red cards0.29league 0.00
Cards 5+71%league 50%
Fouls27.6league 26.6
Penalties0.43league 0.25
Home wins29%league 63%
AVS2 with this referee
Record0-2-0
Cards · opp.4.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D19 Apr 25H · Casa Pia1–17
- D28 Dec 24H · Estrela1–12
Casa Pia3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D19 Apr 25A · AVS1–12
- W20 Jan 25A · Boavista3–22
- L10 Aug 24H · Boavista0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS1 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Casa Pia1 games · scored 0 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 6 · conceded 28
1
3
0-15
7
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
5
61-75
2
6
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
