AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were clear favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for AVS. AVS had 8.1 days of rest, FC Porto 7.9 and had to travel.
Rest days8.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
AVS11%
Draw21%
FC Porto68%
AVS8%
Draw16%
FC Porto76%
AVS11%
Draw21%
FC Porto68%
AVS8%
Draw18%
FC Porto74%
AVS12%
Draw20%
FC Porto69%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 39
Team strength
AVS
FC Porto
13
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
17
AttackIn forecast
74
21
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSFC Porto
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.06
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.47
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.60
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
47%
Scored inContext
97%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
63%
10.34
ShotsContext
14.09
2.84
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
27%
On target shareContext
37%
5.52
Shots in the boxContext
9.34
53%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.23
14.66
Shots allowedContext
9.00
5.41
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.45
3.48
BlocksContext
3.13
3.48
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.28
64%
Save rateContext
85%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
293
PassesContext
440
217
Accurate passesContext
373
74%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.96
13.47
FoulsContext
13.84
10.59
Fouls sufferedContext
12.31
2.16
Yellow cardsContext
2.34
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.03
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
40%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.60
ShotsContext
13.50
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
26%
On target shareContext
35%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
49%
Box shareContext
61%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.13
15.90
Shots allowedContext
9.70
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.00
BlocksContext
2.50
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
79%
Save rateContext
83%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
259
PassesContext
404
187
Accurate passesContext
338
72%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.93
14.10
FoulsContext
13.00
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Porto
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—543 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 May | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 543 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
1Adriel
12Leonardo Rivas
3Paulo Vitor
42C. Devenish
97Mateus Pivô
70Roni
8Pedro Lima
23Gustavo Mendonça
21G. Neiva
20Diego Duarte
11B. Akinsola
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
14Cláudio Ramos(G)
74Francisco Moura
21D. Prpić
3Thiago Silva
20Alberto Baio
42S. Fofana
22A. Varela
17Borja Sainz
86Rodrigo Mora
11Pepê
27D. Gül
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
0.56points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-6-9
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.63
FC Porto · Away
2.69points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 14-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.56
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | AVS | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 HL 0–6 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Rio Ave | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Guimaraes | D 1–1 HL 0–4 A | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Tondela | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | W 2–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Alverca | D 0–0 AL 1–3 H | W 1–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Estrela | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Benfica | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Estoril | W 3–0 HL 1–3 A | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Famalicao | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| SC Braga | L 0–4 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Casa Pia | D 3–3 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 AW 4–0 H |
| Arouca | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A | W 3–1 HW 4–0 A |
| Moreirense | L 0–2 H | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 17 of 93 · 0.55 per game | 82 of 93 · 2.65 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 AVS wins0 draws3 FC Porto wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 29 Dec 2025FC Porto2–0AVS
- 15 Mar 2025FC Porto2–0AVS
- 28 Oct 2024AVS0–5FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.06 | 0.47 | |
| Match goals | 2.81 | 2.47 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 56% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 38% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 63% | |
| Failed to score | 53% | 3% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| AVS | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.50 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.19 | 5.19 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.59 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 8.52 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 18/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 13/27 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 13/27 | 22% 6/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 3.03 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.44 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 17/32 | 81% 26/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 15/32 | 63% 20/32 | |
| AVS | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 4.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 10.63 | 8.63 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 5.80 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.84
Red cards0.18league 0.24
Cards 5+41%league 58%
Fouls28.6league 26.8
Penalties0.36league 0.44
Home wins54%league 41%
AVS2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L2 Feb 26H · SC Braga0–40
- L27 Apr 25A · Benfica0–63
FC Porto1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W15 Mar 26H · Moreirense3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS32 games · scored 24 · conceded 66
1
11
0-15
3
10
16-30
5
11
31-45
3
13
46-60
6
12
61-75
6
9
76-90
FC Porto32 games · scored 64 · conceded 15
9
1
0-15
8
1
16-30
12
1
31-45
12
4
46-60
11
3
61-75
12
5
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 6 · conceded 12
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
3
2
0-15
3
16-30
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
