AVS
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Moreirense were slight favourites.
Moreirense were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 11). AVS had 5 days of rest, Moreirense 14 and had to travel.
Rest days5 · 14Matches / 14d2 · 1
AVS25%
Draw27%
Moreirense47%
AVS26%
Draw26%
Moreirense48%
AVS25%
Draw27%
Moreirense47%
AVS20%
Draw25%
Moreirense55%
AVS26%
Draw26%
Moreirense48%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila das Aves)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.60
- Matches 5
Team strength
AVS
Moreirense
11
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
17
AttackIn forecast
17
21
DefenceIn forecast
27
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMoreirense
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AVSMoreirense
0.69
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
50%
Scored inContext
73%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
9.56
ShotsContext
9.60
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.79
29%
On target shareContext
37%
5.87
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
59%
Box shareContext
58%
7%
ConversionContext
15%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.73
14.69
Shots allowedContext
12.87
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.73
3.06
BlocksContext
3.21
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
58%
Save rateContext
66%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
314
PassesContext
401
240
Accurate passesContext
333
76%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.71
13.75
FoulsContext
14.87
12.13
Fouls sufferedContext
14.27
1.94
Yellow cardsContext
2.73
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
50%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.50
ShotsContext
9.40
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
33%
On target shareContext
38%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
62%
Box shareContext
56%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.86
15.10
Shots allowedContext
13.90
6.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
63%
Save rateContext
62%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
317
PassesContext
386
244
Accurate passesContext
317
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.52
Team ratingContext
6.63
13.00
FoulsContext
15.20
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AVS
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Moreirense
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—605 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AVS |
Moreirense |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Dec | 14Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 605 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
AVS
Confirmed XI
93Simão(G)
12Leonardo Rivas
42C. Devenish
33Aderllan Santos
26Carlos Ponck
2Diogo Spencer
21G. Neiva
8Pedro Lima
15Jaume Grau
11B. Akinsola
7Tómané
Moreirense
Confirmed XI
22Caio Secco(G)
17Álvaro Martínez
26Maracás
66G. Dambi Batista
76Dinis Pinto
10Kiko Bondoso
21Rodri Alonso
8M. Stjepanović
2Diogo Travassos
95Guilherme Schettine
11Alan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AVS
Absences are shown before kick-off
Moreirense
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- AVS+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Moreirense+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
AVS · Home
0.38points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-5
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 2.00
Moreirense · Away
1.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-4
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | AVS | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Nacional | D 2–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–6 A | L 0–3 A |
| Rio Ave | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–4 A | W 2–0 H |
| GIL Vicente | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Santa Clara | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Alverca | L 1–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Estrela | L 0–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Benfica | L 0–3 H | L 0–4 H |
| Estoril | L 1–3 A | D 3–3 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| SC Braga | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Casa Pia | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Arouca | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 45 · 0.20 per game | 21 of 45 · 1.40 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 AVS wins1 draws1 Moreirense wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 17 May 2025AVS0–3Moreirense
- 4 Jan 2025Moreirense1–1AVS
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AVS | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.69 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.56 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 3.00 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 94% | 87% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 67% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 53% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 27% | |
| Games | 16 | 15 |
| AVS | Moreirense | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.70 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AVS | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.92 | 4.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.69 | 4.07 | |
| Match total | 9.61 | 8.43 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 9/13 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 6/13 | 7% 1/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 2.87 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.56 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.69 | 4.87 | 5.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 9/16 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 9/16 | 53% 8/15 | |
| AVS | Moreirense | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.88 | 8.30 | 9.19 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 4.90 | 5.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca Portugal · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.20league 5.07
Red cards0.00league 0.29
Cards 5+80%league 61%
Fouls24.4league 27.2
Penalties0.60league 0.44
Home wins20%league 37%
AVSNo previous matches with this referee.
Moreirense1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D11 May 25H · Estoril2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
AVS16 games · scored 11 · conceded 41
1
5
0-15
1
6
16-30
4
8
31-45
1
9
46-60
1
8
61-75
3
5
76-90
Moreirense15 games · scored 21 · conceded 24
5
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
5
6
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
8
76-90
AVS10 games · scored 7 · conceded 27
1
3
0-15
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
5
61-75
1
4
76-90
Moreirense10 games · scored 13 · conceded 20
4
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
