AVS vs Santa Clara – 15 Mar 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 26 Sun, Mar 15 · 15:30 Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Vila das Aves

AVS 18th · 10 pts · 25 played LWLDD

0–1Full time

Santa Clara 16th · 22 pts · 25 played LLDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Santa Clara were slight favourites.

Santa Clara were the stronger side on L90 Strength (22 vs 11). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Santa Clara. AVS had 8 days of rest, Santa Clara 6.8 and had to travel.

Rest days8 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

AVS29%

Draw31%

Santa Clara40%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.18

AVS32%

Draw27%

Santa Clara41%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.43

AVS29%

Draw31%

Santa Clara40%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.18

AVS23%

Draw30%

Santa Clara47%

Expected goals 0.85 – 1.32

AVS30%

Draw29%

Santa Clara41%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.27

Over 2.5 36% Both score 43% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila das Aves)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalGustavo Correia

Cards per match 6.2
Penalties per match 0.43
Matches 65

Team strength

AVS

Santa Clara

11 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

17 AttackIn forecast 29

21 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

AVS

Attack—

Defense risk—

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AVS

Santa Clara

0.72 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.88

2.28 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.24

0.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

44% Scored inContext 60%

12% Clean sheetsContext 24%

9.92 ShotsContext 11.52

2.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.52

26% On target shareContext 28%

5.63 Shots in the boxContext 6.52

56% Box shareContext 56%

7% ConversionContext 8%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.28

14.48 Shots allowedContext 9.32

5.36 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.67

3.50 BlocksContext 2.50

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71

61% Save rateContext 69%

40% PossessionIn forecast 48%

303 PassesContext 366

224 Accurate passesContext 295

74% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.58 Team ratingContext 6.76

13.28 FoulsContext 15.04

11.16 Fouls sufferedContext 14.08

2.12 Yellow cardsContext 2.92

0.12 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.65 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

30% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.20 ShotsContext 12.60

2.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.38

22% On target shareContext 21%

4.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.40

49% Box shareContext 49%

7% ConversionContext 9%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.33

14.50 Shots allowedContext 9.20

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

4.22 BlocksContext 3.00

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.38

65% Save rateContext 58%

37% PossessionIn forecast 51%

278 PassesContext 360

191 Accurate passesContext 289

69% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.61 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.80 FoulsContext 16.90

9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

AVS

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Santa Clara

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel—3,091 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	AVS	Santa Clara
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 10
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar	6.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 8 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	—	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	3,091 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

AVS Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Adriel

24Kiki 3Paulo Vitor 33Aderllan Santos 97Mateus Pivô

70Roni 19Tiago Galletto 23Gustavo Mendonça

20Diego Duarte 7Tómané 21G. Neiva

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Gabriel Batista(G)

5Guilherme Romão 94Henrique Silva 23Sidney Lima 42Lucas Soares

35Serginho 8Pedro Ferreira

49Welinton 77Gustavo Klismahn 10Gabriel Silva

26Fernando

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

AVS Absences are shown before kick-off

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

AVS+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Santa Clara+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

AVS · Home 0.54points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 1-4-8
Scored: 0.77
Conceded: 1.77

Santa Clara · Away 0.67points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 1-5-6
Scored: 0.83
Conceded: 1.42

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	AVS	Santa Clara
Alverca	D 0–0 AL 1–3 H	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Estrela	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A	L 0–1 AD 0–0 H
Benfica	L 0–3 AL 0–3 H	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A
Estoril	W 3–0 HL 1–3 A	L 2–4 HW 1–0 A
Famalicao	L 1–3 AL 0–1 H	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
SC Braga	L 0–4 HD 2–2 A	L 0–1 A
Casa Pia	D 3–3 AL 0–2 H	W 1–0 H
Arouca	L 0–1 HL 1–3 A	D 0–0 H
Moreirense	L 0–2 H	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H
FC Porto	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 H
Nacional	D 2–2 H	D 3–3 A
Sporting CP	L 0–6 A	L 1–2 H
Rio Ave	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
Guimaraes	L 0–4 A	W 2–0 HL 1–2 A
GIL Vicente	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
Tondela	D 2–2 H	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H
Points	10 of 72 · 0.42 per game	19 of 72 · 0.79 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 AVS wins0 draws3 Santa Clara wins

Goals per game0.67 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

25 Oct 2025Santa Clara2–0AVS
8 Feb 2025AVS1–2Santa Clara
31 Aug 2024Santa Clara2–1AVS

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	AVS	Santa Clara	Forecast
Scored per game	0.72	0.88
Conceded per game	2.28	1.24
Match goals	3.00	2.12	2.13
Over 1.5	84%	56%
Over 2.5	64%	36%	36%
Over 3.5	44%	12%
Both teams scored	40%	44%	43%
Clean sheets	12%	24%
Failed to score	56%	40%
Games	25	25

	AVS	Santa Clara	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.10
Conceded per game	1.80	1.60
Match goals	2.50	2.70	2.13
Over 1.5	70%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	36%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	20%	50%	43%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	70%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	AVS	Santa Clara	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.24
Corners conceded	5.81	4.62
Match total	9.81	8.86	9.20
Over 8.5	67% 14/21	57% 12/21
Over 9.5	48% 10/21	43% 9/21
Over 10.5	48% 10/21	29% 6/21
Cards
Cards	2.28	3.08
Opponent cards	2.44	2.96
Match total	4.72	6.04	5.19
Over 3.5	60% 15/25	88% 22/25
Over 4.5	52% 13/25	68% 17/25

	AVS	Santa Clara	League
Corners
Corners won	4.13	4.60
Corners conceded	6.00	4.10
Match total	10.13	8.70	9.20
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.90
Opponent cards	2.10	2.70
Match total	4.50	5.60	5.19
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gustavo Correia Portugal · 65 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.77league 4.85

Red cards0.40league 0.27

Cards 5+72%league 59%

Fouls28.6league 27.0

Penalties0.43league 0.45

Home wins38%league 40%

AVS

No previous matches with this referee.

Santa Clara5 with this referee

Record3-0-2 Cards · opp.4.4 · 4.0 Pens for · against3 · 0

W10 Nov 24H · Guimaraes1–05
L17 Mar 23H · Rio Ave0–24
L29 Jan 23A · Casa Pia1–24
W23 Oct 22A · Vizela1–06
W4 Sep 22H · Maritimo2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.