Barcelona vs Real Sociedad – 28 Sep 2025

La Liga Gameweek 7 Sun, Sep 28 · 17:30 Spotify Camp Nou, Barcelona

Barcelona 2nd · 16 pts · 6 played WDWWW

2–1Full time

Real Sociedad 17th · 5 pts · 6 played DLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Barcelona were clear favourites.

Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 51). Barcelona usually keep the ball (70% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Barcelona had 2.9 days of rest, Real Sociedad 3.9 and had to travel 401 km.

Away travel401 kmRest days2.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d3 · 2

Barcelona78%

Draw15%

Real Sociedad8%

Expected goals 2.63 – 0.72

Barcelona77%

Draw15%

Real Sociedad8%

Expected goals 2.55 – 0.70

Barcelona78%

Draw15%

Real Sociedad7%

Expected goals 2.61 – 0.70

Barcelona71%

Draw18%

Real Sociedad11%

Expected goals 2.35 – 0.81

Barcelona77%

Draw15%

Real Sociedad8%

Expected goals 2.57 – 0.73

Over 2.5 65% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Barcelona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez

Cards per match 5.6
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 113

Team strength

Barcelona

Real Sociedad

91 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

93 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

97 AttackIn forecast 62

92 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Barcelona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Sociedad

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Barcelona

Real Sociedad

3.17 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.20 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

+0.97 Goals minus xGContext -0.36

100% Scored inContext 83%

50% Clean sheetsContext 17%

20.17 ShotsContext 16.33

7.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.83

37% On target shareContext 30%

12.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.33

60% Box shareContext 64%

16% ConversionContext 6%

2.60 OffsidesContext 2.00

6.00 Shots allowedContext 13.83

3.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

2.25 BlocksContext 4.80

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

79% Save rateContext 65%

72% PossessionIn forecast 57%

648 PassesContext 480

581 Accurate passesContext 405

90% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.17 Team ratingContext 6.76

9.50 FoulsContext 15.50

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

0.83 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

2.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.98 xGVia Att/Def 1.30

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58

+0.82 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

100% Scored inContext 60%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

18.90 ShotsContext 14.30

6.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

35% On target shareContext 32%

11.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.40

60% Box shareContext 65%

15% ConversionContext 6%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.14

7.00 Shots allowedContext 12.60

2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

2.14 BlocksContext 3.33

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

85% Save rateContext 61%

72% PossessionIn forecast 53%

657 PassesContext 465

590 Accurate passesContext 397

90% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.19 Team ratingContext 6.74

10.20 FoulsContext 13.80

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 8.80

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Barcelona

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,385 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Sociedad

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel401 km1,482 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Barcelona	Real Sociedad
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Sep	3.9La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	401 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,385 km	1,482 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Barcelona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25W. Szczęsny(G)

18Gerard Martín 15A. Christensen 4R. Araujo 23J. Koundé

8Pedri 21F. de Jong

14M. Rashford 27Dro Fernández 28R. Bardghji

9R. Lewandowski

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Sociedad Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Álex Remiro(G)

3Aihen Muñoz 16D. Ćaleta-Car 5Zubeldia 20Odriozola

4Jon Gorrotxategi

7Barrenetxea 28Pablo Marín 8Beñat Turrientes 11Gonçalo Guedes

10Mikel Oyarzabal

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Barcelona Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Sociedad Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Barcelona-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Real Sociedad+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Barcelona · Home 3.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 4.50
Conceded: 0.00

Real Sociedad · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Barcelona	Real Sociedad
Oviedo	W 3–1 A	L 0–1 A
Valencia	W 6–0 H	D 1–1 A
Mallorca	W 3–0 A	W 1–0 H
Points	9 of 9 · 3.00 per game	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

8 Barcelona wins0 draws2 Real Sociedad wins

Goals per game2.50 – 0.80 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 10%

2 Mar 2025Barcelona4–0Real Sociedad
10 Nov 2024Real Sociedad1–0Barcelona
13 May 2024Barcelona2–0Real Sociedad
4 Nov 2023Real Sociedad0–1Barcelona
20 May 2023Barcelona1–2Real Sociedad
21 Aug 2022Real Sociedad1–4Barcelona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Barcelona	Real Sociedad	Forecast
Scored per game	3.17	1.00
Conceded per game	0.67	1.50
Match goals	3.83	2.50	3.36
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	83%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	50%	33%
Both teams scored	50%	67%	48%
Clean sheets	50%	17%
Failed to score	0%	17%
Games	6	6

	Barcelona	Real Sociedad	Forecast
Scored per game	3.17	1.00
Conceded per game	0.67	1.50
Match goals	3.83	2.50	3.36
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	83%	50%	65%
Over 3.5	50%	33%
Both teams scored	50%	67%	48%
Clean sheets	50%	17%
Failed to score	0%	17%
Games	6	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Barcelona	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	8.33
Corners conceded	4.80	3.33
Match total	10.20	11.66	9.58
Over 8.5	80% 4/5	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	40% 2/5	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	40% 2/5	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	0.83	2.50
Opponent cards	3.33	2.00
Match total	4.16	4.50	4.25
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	67% 4/6
Over 4.5	50% 3/6	17% 1/6

	Barcelona	Real Sociedad	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	8.00
Corners conceded	4.22	3.60
Match total	9.89	11.60	9.58
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.00
Opponent cards	2.60	1.60
Match total	3.90	3.60	4.25
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 113 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.31league 3.97

Red cards0.27league 0.25

Cards 5+63%league 43%

Fouls25.5league 24.8

Penalties0.29league 0.30

Home wins37%league 46%

Barcelona15 with this referee

Record8-6-1 Cards · opp.3.4 · 3.6 Pens for · against2 · 2 Reds3

W23 Aug 25A · Levante3–21
W11 May 25H · Real Madrid4–34
W9 Feb 25A · Sevilla4–13
L4 May 24A · Girona2–43
D3 Mar 24A · Athletic Club0–03

Real Sociedad5 with this referee

Record1-1-3 Cards · opp.3.6 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L18 Aug 24H · Rayo Vallecano1–22
D27 Jan 24H · Rayo Vallecano0–02
W27 Sep 23A · Valencia1–07
L25 Feb 23A · Valencia0–13
L15 Aug 21A · Barcelona2–44

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.