Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach – 21 Sep 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 4 Sun, Sep 21 · 16:30 BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen 12th · 4 pts · 3 played LDW

1–1Full time

Borussia Mönchengladbach 17th · 1 pts · 3 played DLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.

Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 39). Absences weigh more on Bayer Leverkusen. Bayer Leverkusen had 8.9 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 and had to travel 42 km.

Away travel42 kmRest days8.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Bayer Leverkusen72%

Draw17%

Borussia Mönchengladbach11%

Expected goals 2.50 – 0.87

Bayer Leverkusen71%

Draw18%

Borussia Mönchengladbach11%

Expected goals 2.29 – 0.78

Bayer Leverkusen73%

Draw17%

Borussia Mönchengladbach10%

Expected goals 2.53 – 0.86

Bayer Leverkusen65%

Draw20%

Borussia Mönchengladbach15%

Expected goals 2.23 – 0.98

Bayer Leverkusen70%

Draw19%

Borussia Mönchengladbach11%

Expected goals 2.26 – 0.80

Over 2.5 65% Both score 54% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leverkusen)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 103

Team strength

Bayer Leverkusen

Borussia Mönchengladbach

81 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

78 Current StrengthIn forecast 36

87 AttackIn forecast 34

79 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayer Leverkusen

Borussia Mönchengladbach

2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

+0.82 Goals minus xGContext -1.48

100% Scored inContext 0%

0% Clean sheetsContext 33%

11.67 ShotsContext 16.67

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

40% On target shareContext 24%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.67

58% Box shareContext 66%

20% ConversionContext 0%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.50

11.67 Shots allowedContext 11.00

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

1.50 BlocksContext 2.67

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

50% Save rateContext 57%

51% PossessionIn forecast 55%

475 PassesContext 497

407 Accurate passesContext 427

86% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.65

9.67 FoulsContext 11.00

12.33 Fouls sufferedContext 8.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70

+0.61 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

90% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.40 ShotsContext 13.00

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

40% On target shareContext 32%

6.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.90

55% Box shareContext 71%

16% ConversionContext 9%

2.71 OffsidesContext 3.00

10.90 Shots allowedContext 17.80

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.90

2.78 BlocksContext 5.60

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.60

61% Save rateContext 67%

58% PossessionIn forecast 48%

541 PassesContext 422

470 Accurate passesContext 348

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.81

10.80 FoulsContext 9.10

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 8.00

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel42 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bayer Leverkusen	Borussia Mönchengladbach
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 12 Sep	7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	42 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1M. Flekken(G)

12E. Tapsoba 5L. Badé 4J. Quansah

20Álex Grimaldo 24Aleix García 10M. Tillman 21Lucas Vázquez

17E. Ben Seghir 30I. Maza

14P. Schick

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Borussia Mönchengladbach Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

33M. Nicolas(G)

2F. Chiarodia 30N. Elvedi 4K. Diks

26L. Ullrich 6Y. Engelhardt 27R. Reitz 29J. Scally

17J. Castrop 7K. Stöger

18S. Machino

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bayer Leverkusen Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Borussia Mönchengladbach Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bayer Leverkusen-0.9 pp
Draw+0.4 pp
Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.50

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Bayer Leverkusen	Borussia Mönchengladbach
Werder Bremen	D 3–3 A	L 0–4 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

6 Bayer Leverkusen wins2 draws0 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins

Goals per game2.50 – 1.00 Over 2.588% Both scored63% Clean sheets38% · 13%

18 Jan 2025Bayer Leverkusen3–1Borussia Mönchengladbach
23 Aug 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach2–3Bayer Leverkusen
27 Jan 2024Bayer Leverkusen0–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
26 Aug 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach0–3Bayer Leverkusen
21 May 2023Bayer Leverkusen2–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
22 Jan 2023Borussia Mönchengladbach2–3Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bayer Leverkusen	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Forecast
Scored per game	2.33	0.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.67
Match goals	4.33	1.67	3.37
Over 1.5	100%	33%
Over 2.5	100%	33%	65%
Over 3.5	67%	33%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	3	3

	Bayer Leverkusen	Borussia Mönchengladbach	Forecast
Scored per game	2.33	0.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.67
Match goals	4.33	1.67	3.37
Over 1.5	100%	33%
Over 2.5	100%	33%	65%
Over 3.5	67%	33%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	3	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bayer Leverkusen	Borussia Mönchengladbach	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	8.33
Corners conceded	5.00	5.33
Match total	10.67	13.66	10.09
Over 8.5	100% 3/3	100% 3/3
Over 9.5	100% 3/3	100% 3/3
Over 10.5	33% 1/3	100% 3/3
Cards
Cards	2.67	1.33
Opponent cards	3.67	1.00
Match total	6.34	2.33	4.56
Over 3.5	100% 3/3	0% 0/3
Over 4.5	67% 2/3	0% 0/3

	Bayer Leverkusen	Borussia Mönchengladbach	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	6.00
Corners conceded	4.89	6.50
Match total	9.22	12.50	10.09
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	90% 9/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	80% 8/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.00
Opponent cards	2.20	0.80
Match total	4.70	1.80	4.56
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	0% 0/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 103 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.82league 4.26

Red cards0.15league 0.35

Cards 5+55%league 50%

Fouls21.8league 22.7

Penalties0.28league 0.56

Home wins46%league 41%

Bayer Leverkusen10 with this referee

Record5-4-1 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.1 Pens for · against1 · 0

W1 Mar 25A · Eintracht Frankfurt4–11
W14 Dec 24A · FC Augsburg2–00
D28 Sep 24A · Bayern München1–13
D27 Apr 24H · VfB Stuttgart2–24
W10 Feb 24H · Bayern München3–03

Borussia Mönchengladbach6 with this referee

Record1-4-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

L11 Jan 25H · Bayern München0–13
D9 Mar 24H · 1.FC Köln3–33
D15 Dec 23H · Werder Bremen2–24
W10 Nov 23H · VfL Wolfsburg4–01
D2 Apr 23A · 1.FC Köln0–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.