Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 55 pts · 31 played
DWWLW
4–1Full time
RB Leipzig
3rd · 62 pts · 31 played
WWWWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards RB Leipzig. Bayer Leverkusen had 7.1 days of rest, RB Leipzig 7.9 and had to travel 377 km.
Away travel377 kmRest days7.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Bayer Leverkusen43%
Draw22%
RB Leipzig35%
Bayer Leverkusen47%
Draw26%
RB Leipzig26%
Bayer Leverkusen42%
Draw23%
RB Leipzig36%
Bayer Leverkusen34%
Draw22%
RB Leipzig43%
Bayer Leverkusen41%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig35%
Over 2.5 72%
Both score 72%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyTobias Welz
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 53
Team strength
Bayer LeverkusenRB Leipzig
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
73
79
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
87
AttackIn forecast
76
79
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenRB Leipzig
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.35
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.23
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.93
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
87%
Scored inContext
90%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
13.90
ShotsContext
15.45
4.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.94
34%
On target shareContext
38%
8.58
Shots in the boxContext
11.19
60%
Box shareContext
72%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.21
11.87
Shots allowedContext
11.35
4.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.68
3.00
BlocksContext
3.38
3.52
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
72%
Save rateContext
68%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
599
PassesContext
489
531
Accurate passesContext
414
89%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.06
8.55
FoulsContext
9.23
10.29
Fouls sufferedContext
10.03
2.06
Yellow cardsContext
1.48
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
2.22
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.20
ShotsContext
15.30
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.90
33%
On target shareContext
45%
9.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.80
60%
Box shareContext
76%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.20
13.00
Shots allowedContext
10.40
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.90
BlocksContext
2.67
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
71%
Save rateContext
73%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
536
PassesContext
477
471
Accurate passesContext
402
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.14
8.00
FoulsContext
9.60
8.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km22 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
RB Leipzig
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel377 km586 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 7.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 24 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 377 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 22 km | 586 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
12E. Tapsoba
8R. Andrich
4J. Quansah
20Álex Grimaldo
25E. Palacios
24Aleix García
42Montrell Amare Culbreath
23N. Tella
30I. Maza
14P. Schick
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
35M. Finkgräfe
5E. Bitshiabu
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
14C. Baumgartner
13N. Seiwald
24X. Schlager
7A. Nusa
40Rômulo
49Y. Diomande
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- RB Leipzig-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
1.80points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-4
- Scored
- 2.20
- Conceded
- 1.13
RB Leipzig · Away
1.80points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-4
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.27
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A | W 2–1 HW 6–0 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 6–3 HW 3–1 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 3–3 AW 6–0 H | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Bayern München | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | L 1–5 HL 0–6 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 3–3 AW 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–1 HL 1–3 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | W 3–1 AW 6–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 5–0 HL 1–3 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–4 H | L 0–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Points | 52 of 90 · 1.73 per game | 62 of 90 · 2.07 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Bayer Leverkusen wins1 draws3 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.56
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 20 Dec 2025RB Leipzig1–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 25 Jan 2025RB Leipzig2–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 31 Aug 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–3RB Leipzig
- 20 Jan 2024RB Leipzig2–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 19 Aug 2023Bayer Leverkusen3–2RB Leipzig
- 23 Apr 2023Bayer Leverkusen2–0RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.35 | 1.23 | |
| Match goals | 3.35 | 3.23 | 3.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 68% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 58% | 72% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 10% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 3.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 72% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 72% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.23 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 9.23 | 10.32 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 19/30 | 68% 19/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 15/30 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 10/30 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 1.48 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.71 | 1.81 | |
| Match total | 4.84 | 3.29 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 18/31 | 39% 12/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 14/31 | 23% 7/31 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 6.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 10.45 | 9.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.30 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Welz Germany · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.25league 3.72
Red cards0.15league 0.18
Cards 5+43%league 38%
Fouls23.1league 20.2
Penalties0.23league 0.36
Home wins43%league 43%
Bayer Leverkusen6 with this referee
Record1-1-4
Cards · opp.3.2 · 3.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L29 Nov 25H · Borussia Dortmund1–23
- L8 Mar 25H · Werder Bremen0–24
- W14 Jan 25H · FSV Mainz 051–02
- L27 May 23A · VfL Bochum0–36
- L29 Jan 23H · Borussia Dortmund0–22
RB Leipzig4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 Oct 25H · Hamburger SV2–13
- W20 Apr 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim2–11
- W6 May 23A · SC Freiburg1–04
- L20 Nov 21A · 1899 Hoffenheim0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen31 games · scored 62 · conceded 42
10
5
0-15
10
6
16-30
17
13
31-45
8
5
46-60
8
5
61-75
9
8
76-90
RB Leipzig31 games · scored 62 · conceded 38
7
0-15
11
5
16-30
12
8
31-45
12
8
46-60
11
5
61-75
9
12
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 19 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 22 · conceded 10
1
0-15
7
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
