Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for RB Leipzig. Bayer Leverkusen had 3.8 days of rest, RB Leipzig 7 and had to travel 377 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel377 kmRest days3.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bayer Leverkusen50%
Draw22%
RB Leipzig28%
Bayer Leverkusen50%
Draw25%
RB Leipzig25%
Bayer Leverkusen50%
Draw22%
RB Leipzig28%
Bayer Leverkusen42%
Draw23%
RB Leipzig35%
Bayer Leverkusen49%
Draw22%
RB Leipzig28%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
17°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 22 km/h
- Humidity 83%
Referee · GermanyRobert Schröder
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 73
Team strength
Bayer Leverkusen
RB Leipzig
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
79
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
87
AttackIn forecast
76
79
DefenceIn forecast
53
55
Form indexContext
53
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenRB Leipzig
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.54
xGVia Att/Def
2.63
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
24.00
ShotsContext
21.00
6.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.33
26%
On target shareContext
35%
16.67
Shots in the boxContext
15.00
69%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.67
OffsidesContext
—
8.00
Shots allowedContext
12.33
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
1.67
BlocksContext
3.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
55%
Save rateContext
80%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
585
PassesContext
580
519
Accurate passesContext
508
89%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.98
Team ratingContext
7.31
12.67
FoulsContext
9.67
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
0.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
2.19
xGVia Att/Def
2.13
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
100%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
19.00
ShotsContext
17.70
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.90
33%
On target shareContext
39%
13.70
Shots in the boxContext
12.60
69%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.50
12.60
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.30
BlocksContext
3.22
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
69%
Save rateContext
57%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
554
PassesContext
520
491
Accurate passesContext
454
89%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.09
Team ratingContext
7.00
8.90
FoulsContext
8.40
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
LWDW
Rest3.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km816 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 55 · 7 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
RB Leipzig
WLLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel377 km1,322 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 53 · 6 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 377 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 816 km | 1,322 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20 | 20.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez
2F. Medina
12E. Tapsoba
4J. Quansah
24Aleix García
6E. Fernández
9Afonso Moreira
30I. Maza
19M. Diaby
14P. Schick
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum
3M. Estève
4V. Orbán
17R. Baku
21N. El Aynaoui
6E. Banzuzi
7A. Nusa
28C. Nkunku
10B. Gruda
40Rômulo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Absences are shown before kick-off
RB Leipzig
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- RB Leipzig+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
RB Leipzig · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
6 Bayer Leverkusen wins1 draws3 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game2.20 – 1.50
Over 2.570%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 2 May 2026Bayer Leverkusen4–1RB Leipzig
- 20 Dec 2025RB Leipzig1–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 25 Jan 2025RB Leipzig2–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 31 Aug 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–3RB Leipzig
- 20 Jan 2024RB Leipzig2–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 19 Aug 2023Bayer Leverkusen3–2RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 4.00 | 3.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.90 | 3.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.33 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.33 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 11.66 | 12.00 | 10.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 1.67 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.67 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.22 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 10.00 | 10.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.50 | 3.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robert Schröder Germany · 73 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.96league 3.61
Red cards0.18league 0.09
Cards 5+41%league 21%
Fouls23.3league 22.6
Penalties0.34league 0.18
Home wins48%league 52%
Bayer Leverkusen5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds1
- L9 May 26A · VfB Stuttgart1–31
- W31 Jan 26A · Eintracht Frankfurt3–11
- W23 Aug 24A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–20
- L19 Feb 23H · FSV Mainz 052–36
- W6 Nov 22H · Union Berlin5–01
RB Leipzig3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W16 Dec 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim3–13
- W23 Sep 23A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–01
- D22 Oct 22A · FC Augsburg3–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen3 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
RB Leipzig3 games · scored 9 · conceded 3
1
0-15
3
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
4
4
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 18
2
0-15
6
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
