Bayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 46 pts · 27 played
DWDDD
6–3Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
17th · 21 pts · 27 played
LLLDL
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 35). Absences weigh more on Bayer Leverkusen. Bayer Leverkusen had 14 days of rest, VfL Wolfsburg 14 and had to travel 304 km.
Away travel304 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Bayer Leverkusen72%
Draw17%
VfL Wolfsburg10%
Bayer Leverkusen71%
Draw19%
VfL Wolfsburg11%
Bayer Leverkusen73%
Draw17%
VfL Wolfsburg10%
Bayer Leverkusen65%
Draw20%
VfL Wolfsburg15%
Bayer Leverkusen70%
Draw19%
VfL Wolfsburg11%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leverkusen)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyMartin Petersen
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 58
Team strength
Bayer LeverkusenVfL Wolfsburg
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
78
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
87
AttackIn forecast
50
79
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVfL Wolfsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayer LeverkusenVfL Wolfsburg
1.93
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.11
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
85%
Scored inContext
78%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
4%
13.26
ShotsContext
11.00
4.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.81
34%
On target shareContext
35%
8.04
Shots in the boxContext
6.85
60%
Box shareContext
61%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.81
11.56
Shots allowedContext
14.78
4.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.48
2.96
BlocksContext
4.19
3.46
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.58
72%
Save rateContext
64%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
600
PassesContext
403
531
Accurate passesContext
321
89%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.77
8.96
FoulsContext
11.26
10.59
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.19
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.60
ShotsContext
10.30
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
30%
On target shareContext
30%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
60%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.90
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
2.80
BlocksContext
5.00
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
73%
Save rateContext
66%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
527
PassesContext
394
453
Accurate passesContext
309
86%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.77
8.80
FoulsContext
12.70
9.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km693 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
VfL Wolfsburg
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel304 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayer Leverkusen |
VfL Wolfsburg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 304 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 693 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
12E. Tapsoba
5L. Badé
8R. Andrich
20Álex Grimaldo
6E. Fernández
25E. Palacios
42Montrell Amare Culbreath
23N. Tella
30I. Maza
35Christian Kofane
VfL Wolfsburg
Confirmed XI
1K. Grabara(G)
4K. Koulierakis
3D. Vavro
6J. Belocian
21J. Mæhle
5Vinicius Souza
24C. Eriksen
26S. Kumbedi
9M. Amoura
39P. Wimmer
23J. Wind
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
VfL Wolfsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayer Leverkusen-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- VfL Wolfsburg+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayer Leverkusen · Home
1.85points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.92
VfL Wolfsburg · Away
0.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-7
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 2.15
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Bayer Leverkusen | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 3–3 AW 6–0 H | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Bayern München | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A | L 1–8 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 3–3 AW 2–0 H | L 3–4 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Union Berlin | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | L 1–4 H | L 0–4 AL 0–3 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 43 of 78 · 1.65 per game | 21 of 78 · 0.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
5 Bayer Leverkusen wins3 draws1 VfL Wolfsburg wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.544%
Both scored44%
Clean sheets44% · 33%
- 22 Nov 2025VfL Wolfsburg1–3Bayer Leverkusen
- 8 Feb 2025VfL Wolfsburg0–0Bayer Leverkusen
- 22 Sep 2024Bayer Leverkusen4–3VfL Wolfsburg
- 10 Mar 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–0VfL Wolfsburg
- 21 Oct 2023VfL Wolfsburg1–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 16 Apr 2023VfL Wolfsburg0–0Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayer Leverkusen | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.93 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.11 | |
| Match goals | 3.26 | 3.41 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 67% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 48% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 74% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 4% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 22% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | VfL Wolfsburg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.90 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayer Leverkusen | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.81 | 3.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.07 | 7.31 | |
| Match total | 8.88 | 11.27 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 59% 16/27 | 73% 19/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 13/27 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 8/27 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.26 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.81 | 1.59 | |
| Match total | 5.07 | 3.59 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 17/27 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 52% 14/27 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | VfL Wolfsburg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 7.60 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 12.10 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.90 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Petersen Germany · 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.29league 3.73
Red cards0.17league 0.18
Cards 5+52%league 37%
Fouls23.8league 20.5
Penalties0.22league 0.36
Home wins47%league 45%
Bayer Leverkusen3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Sep 25A · FC St. Pauli2–15
- W25 Nov 23A · Werder Bremen3–01
- W26 Feb 22H · Arminia Bielefeld3–00
VfL Wolfsburg9 with this referee
Record3-3-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 3
- L30 Jan 26A · 1.FC Köln0–14
- W25 Oct 25A · Hamburger SV1–05
- L15 Mar 25A · FC Augsburg0–12
- W30 Nov 24A · RB Leipzig5–11
- D17 Feb 24H · Borussia Dortmund1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayer Leverkusen27 games · scored 52 · conceded 36
9
4
0-15
9
5
16-30
14
11
31-45
6
5
46-60
6
5
61-75
8
6
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg27 games · scored 35 · conceded 57
8
6
0-15
6
8
16-30
3
8
31-45
6
8
46-60
7
10
61-75
5
17
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
VfL Wolfsburg10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
