Bayer Leverkusen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 46 pts · 27 played
DWDDD
6–3Full time
VfL Wolfsburg
17th · 21 pts · 27 played
LLLDL
Bayer Leverkusen72.4%fair odds 1.38
Draw17.2%fair odds 5.82
VfL Wolfsburg10.5%fair odds 9.56
Expected goals2.45 – 0.84total 3.29
Likeliest score2–011.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfL Wolfsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayer Leverkusen ↓ · VfL Wolfsburg → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayer Leverkusen goals, columns VfL Wolfsburg goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.2%8.94
- 2–19.4%10.65
- 3–09.1%10.94
- 1–08.7%11.47
- 1–18.1%12.39
- 3–17.7%13.04
- 4–05.6%17.86
- 4–14.7%21.27
- 0–04.1%24.21
- 2–23.9%25.37
Winning margin
29.3%
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+
fair 3.41
21.1%
Bayer Leverkusen by 2
fair 4.73
21.9%
Bayer Leverkusen by 1
fair 4.56
17.2%
Draw
fair 5.82
7.3%
VfL Wolfsburg by 1
fair 13.79
2.5%
VfL Wolfsburg by 2
fair 40.34
0.7%
VfL Wolfsburg by 3+
fair 135.94
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Bayer Leverkusen goals
9%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
23%4+
VfL Wolfsburg goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 72.4% | 69.8% | +2.6 pp |
| Draw | 17.2% | 19.0% | -1.8 pp |
| VfL Wolfsburg win | 10.5% | 11.2% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 63.9% | 57.9% | +6.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.3% | 48.9% | +3.5 pp |
| Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen | 2.45 | 2.23 | +0.22 |
| Expected goals VfL Wolfsburg | 0.84 | 0.78 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayer Leverkusen win72.4%1.38
- Draw17.2%5.82
- VfL Wolfsburg win10.5%9.56
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw89.5%1.12
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or VfL Wolfsburg82.8%1.21
- Double chance VfL Wolfsburg or draw27.6%3.62
- Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen87.4%1.14
- Draw no bet VfL Wolfsburg12.6%7.92
Goals
- Over 0.595.9%1.04
- Over 1.584.4%1.18
- Over 2.563.9%1.57
- Over 3.541.8%2.40
- Over 4.523.6%4.24
- Under 1.515.6%6.42
- Under 2.536.1%2.77
- Under 3.558.2%1.72
Both teams to score
- Yes52.3%1.91
- No47.7%2.10
- Yes and over 2.544.3%2.26
- Bayer Leverkusen win and yes33.3%3.00
- Draw and yes13.0%7.67
- VfL Wolfsburg win and yes6.0%16.74
Team goals
- Bayer Leverkusen over 0.591.4%1.09
- Bayer Leverkusen over 1.570.2%1.42
- Bayer Leverkusen over 2.544.4%2.25
- VfL Wolfsburg over 0.556.8%1.76
- VfL Wolfsburg over 1.520.6%4.87
- VfL Wolfsburg over 2.55.3%18.77
- Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet43.2%2.32
- VfL Wolfsburg clean sheet8.6%11.60
- Bayer Leverkusen win to nil39.1%2.56
- VfL Wolfsburg win to nil4.5%22.26
Handicap
- Bayer Leverkusen −1.550.4%1.98
- Bayer Leverkusen −2.529.3%3.41
- VfL Wolfsburg +1.549.6%2.02
- VfL Wolfsburg +2.570.7%1.41
- VfL Wolfsburg −1.53.2%31.11
- Bayer Leverkusen +1.596.8%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored243
Favourite won57.2%
Avg chance given to result43.4%
1X2 Brier0.557
Over 2.5 called right60.1%
BTTS called right56.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 32 | 38.3% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 75 | 44.9% | 46.7% |
| 50–60% | 66 | 55.2% | 62.1% |
| 60–70% | 39 | 64.5% | 69.2% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 74.1% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 11 | 86.3% | 81.8% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 196 of 243 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5493 | 0.5458 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 58.7% | 58.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 196 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 243 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.