Bayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayern München
1st · 82 pts · 31 played
WWWWW
3–3Full time
1. FC Heidenheim
18th · 22 pts · 31 played
DDWLW
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (95 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1. FC Heidenheim. Bayern München had 7 days of rest, 1. FC Heidenheim 7 and had to travel 121 km.
Away travel121 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bayern München94%
Draw4%
1. FC Heidenheim2%
Bayern München92%
Draw6%
1. FC Heidenheim2%
Bayern München94%
Draw4%
1. FC Heidenheim2%
Bayern München91%
Draw6%
1. FC Heidenheim3%
Bayern München92%
Draw5%
1. FC Heidenheim2%
Over 2.5 93%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 4–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
No weather data yet
RefereeFrank Willenborg
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 58
Team strength
Bayern München1. FC Heidenheim
95
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
96
AttackIn forecast
48
90
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1. FC Heidenheim
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayern München1. FC Heidenheim
3.65
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.03
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.13
2.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
+0.91
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
100%
Scored inContext
65%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
3%
18.68
ShotsContext
10.94
8.26
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.55
44%
On target shareContext
30%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.55
70%
Box shareContext
68%
20%
ConversionContext
10%
2.45
OffsidesContext
2.04
9.87
Shots allowedContext
14.61
2.97
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.29
3.19
BlocksContext
3.80
2.24
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.16
69%
Save rateContext
60%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
686
PassesContext
355
620
Accurate passesContext
275
90%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.18
Team ratingContext
6.73
8.97
FoulsContext
9.61
8.74
Fouls sufferedContext
10.13
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.39
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
3.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
2.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
+0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
100%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
19.50
ShotsContext
9.90
7.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
39%
On target shareContext
32%
14.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.89
74%
Box shareContext
72%
18%
ConversionContext
16%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.40
Shots allowedContext
13.20
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.70
BlocksContext
3.44
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
75%
Save rateContext
62%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
661
PassesContext
362
596
Accurate passesContext
282
90%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.10
FoulsContext
8.80
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km631 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1. FC Heidenheim
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel121 km372 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
1. FC Heidenheim |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 121 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 631 km | 372 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
40J. Urbig(G)
21H. Ito
4J. Tah
3M. Kim
44J. Stanišić
27K. Laimer
39B. Ndiaye
45A. Pavlović
8L. Goretzka
10J. Musiala
11N. Jackson
1. FC Heidenheim
Confirmed XI
41D. Ramaj(G)
19J. Föhrenbach
6P. Mainka
2M. Busch
26Hennes Behrens
30N. Dorsch
3J. Schöppner
8E. Dinkçi
22A. Ibrahimović
11B. Zivzivadze
18M. Pieringer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1. FC Heidenheim
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- 1. FC Heidenheim+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
2.67points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 13-1-1
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
1. FC Heidenheim · Away
0.33points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-12
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 2.07
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Bayern München | 1. FC Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–3 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 4–2 HW 5–0 A | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| FC St. Pauli | W 5–0 AW 3–1 H | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 3–2 AW 6–2 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Union Berlin | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | D 3–3 HL 0–6 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 4–1 HW 3–0 A | D 2–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 AW 4–0 H | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 5–1 HW 4–1 A | L 2–4 HL 1–3 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H | L 0–3 HL 0–2 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 3–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 8–1 H | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Points | 79 of 90 · 2.63 per game | 22 of 90 · 0.73 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
4 Bayern München wins0 draws1 1. FC Heidenheim wins
Goals per game3.60 – 1.40
Over 2.5100%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 0%
- 21 Dec 20251. FC Heidenheim0–4Bayern München
- 19 Apr 20251. FC Heidenheim0–4Bayern München
- 7 Dec 2024Bayern München4–21. FC Heidenheim
- 6 Apr 20241. FC Heidenheim3–2Bayern München
- 11 Nov 2023Bayern München4–21. FC Heidenheim
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.65 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.03 | 2.13 | |
| Match goals | 4.68 | 3.26 | 5.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 97% | 68% | 93% |
| Over 3.5 | 77% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 61% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 3% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 35% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Bayern München | 1. FC Heidenheim | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 4.70 | 3.50 | 5.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 93% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.07 | 4.52 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.38 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 9.38 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 16/29 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 15/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 34% 10/29 | 34% 10/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.77 | 1.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 1.94 | |
| Match total | 3.42 | 3.36 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 13/31 | 45% 14/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 10/31 | 32% 10/31 | |
| Bayern München | 1. FC Heidenheim | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.90 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 7.70 | 9.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 2.50 | 3.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Frank Willenborg 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.26league 3.71
Red cards0.16league 0.17
Cards 5+48%league 38%
Fouls22.0league 20.3
Penalties0.26league 0.37
Home wins41%league 44%
Bayern München6 with this referee
Record4-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W26 Sep 25H · Werder Bremen4–02
- W19 Apr 25A · 1. FC Heidenheim4–01
- L14 Dec 24A · FSV Mainz 051–22
- W13 Apr 24H · 1.FC Köln2–00
- W24 Jan 24H · Union Berlin1–02
1. FC Heidenheim6 with this referee
Record0-0-6
Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L22 Nov 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–32
- L30 Aug 25A · RB Leipzig0–25
- L19 Apr 25H · Bayern München0–43
- L1 Feb 25H · Borussia Dortmund1–21
- L2 Nov 24A · Holstein Kiel0–15
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern München31 games · scored 113 · conceded 32
7
5
0-15
17
6
16-30
22
5
31-45
15
3
46-60
19
3
61-75
33
10
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim31 games · scored 35 · conceded 66
3
3
0-15
4
11
16-30
5
15
31-45
7
12
46-60
6
11
61-75
10
14
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 35 · conceded 18
2
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
8
4
31-45
8
3
46-60
7
2
61-75
8
2
76-90
1. FC Heidenheim10 games · scored 16 · conceded 19
2
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
