Bundesliga Gameweek 32 Sat, May 2 · 14:30 Allianz Arena, München
Bayern München 1st · 82 pts · 31 played
3–3Full time
1. FC Heidenheim 18th · 22 pts · 31 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Bayern München94.3%fair odds 1.06
Draw3.9%fair odds 25.55
1. FC Heidenheim1.8%fair odds 55.52
Expected goals5.00 – 0.87total 5.87
Likeliest score4–07.4%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Bayern München

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

1. FC Heidenheim

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Bayern München ↓ · 1. FC Heidenheim →0123456+
00.40.20.10.00.00.00.0
11.41.30.50.20.00.00.0
23.63.11.40.40.10.00.0
35.95.22.30.70.10.00.0
47.46.52.80.80.20.00.0
57.46.52.80.80.20.00.0
6+15.613.76.01.70.40.10.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayern München goals, columns 1. FC Heidenheim goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 4–07.4%13.47
  • 5–07.4%13.48
  • 4–16.5%15.40
  • 5–16.5%15.41
  • 6–06.2%16.19
  • 3–05.9%16.82
  • 6–15.4%18.51
  • 3–15.2%19.23
  • 7–04.4%22.68
  • 7–13.9%25.94

Winning margin

73.9% Bayern München by 3+ fair 1.35
12.6% Bayern München by 2 fair 7.93
7.8% Bayern München by 1 fair 12.83
3.9% Draw fair 25.55
1.3% 1. FC Heidenheim by 1 fair 76.33
0.4% 1. FC Heidenheim by 2 fair 258.87
0.1% 1. FC Heidenheim by 3+ fair 953.35

Goal distribution

Total goals

0%0
2%1
5%2
10%3
14%4
69%5+

Bayern München goals

1%0
3%1
9%2
14%3
73%4+

1. FC Heidenheim goals

42%0
36%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Bayern München win 94.3% 92.3% +2.0 pp
Draw 3.9% 5.3% -1.4 pp
1. FC Heidenheim win 1.8% 2.4% -0.6 pp
Over 2.5 93.1% 89.1% +4.0 pp
Both teams score 58.0% 54.8% +3.1 pp
Expected goals Bayern München 5.00 4.40 +0.59
Expected goals 1. FC Heidenheim 0.87 0.81 +0.07

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Bayern München win94.3%1.06
  • Draw3.9%25.55
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win1.8%55.52
  • Double chance Bayern München or draw98.2%1.02
  • Double chance Bayern München or 1. FC Heidenheim96.1%1.04
  • Double chance 1. FC Heidenheim or draw5.7%17.50
  • Draw no bet Bayern München98.1%1.02
  • Draw no bet 1. FC Heidenheim1.9%53.34

Goals

  • Over 0.599.6%1.00
  • Over 1.598.1%1.02
  • Over 2.593.1%1.07
  • Over 3.583.5%1.20
  • Over 4.569.3%1.44
  • Under 1.51.9%52.65
  • Under 2.56.9%14.50
  • Under 3.516.5%6.05

Both teams to score

  • Yes58.0%1.73
  • No42.0%2.38
  • Yes and over 2.556.6%1.77
  • Bayern München win and yes52.9%1.89
  • Draw and yes3.6%28.08
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win and yes1.5%68.14

Team goals

  • Bayern München over 0.599.3%1.01
  • Bayern München over 1.595.9%1.04
  • Bayern München over 2.587.3%1.15
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 0.558.3%1.72
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 1.521.8%4.58
  • 1. FC Heidenheim over 2.55.9%17.03
  • Bayern München clean sheet41.7%2.40
  • 1. FC Heidenheim clean sheet0.7%145.78
  • Bayern München win to nil41.4%2.42
  • 1. FC Heidenheim win to nil0.3%299.73

Handicap

  • Bayern München −1.586.5%1.16
  • Bayern München −2.573.9%1.35
  • 1. FC Heidenheim +1.513.5%7.40
  • 1. FC Heidenheim +2.526.1%3.83
  • 1. FC Heidenheim −1.50.5%203.59
  • Bayern München +1.599.5%1.00

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored279 Favourite won56.6% Avg chance given to result43.4% 1X2 Brier0.557 Over 2.5 called right61.3% BTTS called right58.8%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3738.2%35.1%
40–50%8845.0%46.6%
50–60%7355.1%60.3%
60–70%4264.8%69.0%
70–80%2774.1%77.8%
80%+1286.6%83.3%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 232 of 279 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.55030.5484
Avg chance given to result43.8%43.2%
Favourite won57.8%56.5%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 232 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 279 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.