Bayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayern München
1st · 86 pts · 33 played
WWWDW
5–1Full time
1.FC Köln
14th · 32 pts · 33 played
WDLDL
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1.FC Köln. Bayern München had 6.9 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 5.9 and had to travel 456 km.
Away travel456 kmRest days6.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bayern München85%
Draw9%
1.FC Köln6%
Bayern München88%
Draw9%
1.FC Köln3%
Bayern München85%
Draw9%
1.FC Köln6%
Bayern München79%
Draw12%
1.FC Köln9%
Bayern München82%
Draw11%
1.FC Köln7%
Over 2.5 88%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 3–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
No weather data yet
RefereeDeniz Aytekin
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 77
Team strength
Bayern München1.FC Köln
94
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
96
AttackIn forecast
36
90
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysis1.FC Köln
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayern München1.FC Köln
3.55
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.45
1.06
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.76
2.69
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.86
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
100%
Scored inContext
88%
36%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
18.67
ShotsContext
12.67
8.21
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
44%
On target shareContext
35%
12.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.97
69%
Box shareContext
69%
19%
ConversionContext
12%
2.45
OffsidesContext
2.38
10.12
Shots allowedContext
12.94
3.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.59
3.28
BlocksContext
3.84
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.07
69%
Save rateContext
63%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
687
PassesContext
398
620
Accurate passesContext
324
90%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.17
Team ratingContext
6.81
8.76
FoulsContext
7.94
8.67
Fouls sufferedContext
9.91
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.06
3.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
2.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.67
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
100%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
18.30
ShotsContext
14.10
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
41%
On target shareContext
36%
11.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
67%
Box shareContext
75%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.10
Shots allowedContext
10.40
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.40
BlocksContext
2.90
4.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.57
73%
Save rateContext
58%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
641
PassesContext
414
573
Accurate passesContext
342
89%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.78
8.80
FoulsContext
8.10
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km960 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
1.FC Köln
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel456 km957 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
1.FC Köln |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 9 May | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 456 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 960 km | 957 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 104.2 | 105 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
20T. Bischof
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
27K. Laimer
8L. Goretzka
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
10J. Musiala
42Lennart Karl
9H. Kane
1.FC Köln
Confirmed XI
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund
39C. Özkacar
22J. Simpson-Pusey
2Joel Schmied
28S. Sebulonsen
17A. Castro-Montes
6E. Martel
16J. Kamiński
13S. El Mala
30M. Bülter
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- 1.FC Köln-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
2.56points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 13-2-1
- Scored
- 3.94
- Conceded
- 1.13
1.FC Köln · Away
0.81points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-7-7
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Bayern München | 1.FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 1–0 AW 8–1 H | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | D 3–3 HW 4–0 A | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | W 4–3 AD 2–2 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| VfB Stuttgart | W 4–2 HW 5–0 A | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 5–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| SC Freiburg | W 3–2 AW 6–2 H | L 1–2 AW 4–1 H |
| Union Berlin | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 4–1 HW 3–0 A | D 3–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Borussia Dortmund | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–2 HW 3–0 A | D 2–2 AL 3–4 H |
| Werder Bremen | W 3–0 AW 4–0 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 5–1 HW 4–1 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Hamburger SV | D 2–2 AW 5–0 H | D 1–1 AW 4–1 H |
| FC Augsburg | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 5–1 AW 6–0 H | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 83 of 96 · 2.59 per game | 32 of 96 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
6 Bayern München wins1 draws0 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game2.29 – 0.71
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 0%
- 14 Jan 20261.FC Köln1–3Bayern München
- 13 Apr 2024Bayern München2–01.FC Köln
- 24 Nov 20231.FC Köln0–1Bayern München
- 27 May 20231.FC Köln1–2Bayern München
- 24 Jan 2023Bayern München1–11.FC Köln
- 15 Jan 20221.FC Köln0–4Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.55 | 1.45 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.06 | 1.76 | |
| Match goals | 4.61 | 3.21 | 5.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 97% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 94% | 64% | 88% |
| Over 3.5 | 76% | 45% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 79% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 36% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 12% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Bayern München | 1.FC Köln | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.20 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 4.60 | 3.40 | 5.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 88% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.13 | 4.76 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.52 | 5.59 | |
| Match total | 9.65 | 10.35 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 18/31 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 16/31 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 11/31 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.76 | 1.94 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.64 | 2.36 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.30 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 14/33 | 67% 22/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 11/33 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Bayern München | 1.FC Köln | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 6.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 11.00 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.00 | 3.85 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Deniz Aytekin 77 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.69
Red cards0.25league 0.17
Cards 5+38%league 37%
Fouls22.2league 20.2
Penalties0.30league 0.35
Home wins38%league 44%
Bayern München8 with this referee
Record5-2-1
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds2
- W1 Nov 25H · Bayer Leverkusen3–01
- W4 Nov 23A · Borussia Dortmund4–02
- W2 Sep 23A · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–12
- L20 May 23H · RB Leipzig1–31
- D8 Oct 22A · Borussia Dortmund2–26
1.FC Köln7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against4 · 3
- L8 Nov 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–33
- W11 May 24H · Union Berlin3–23
- L20 Dec 23A · Union Berlin0–20
- W22 Oct 23H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–10
- L19 Aug 23A · Borussia Dortmund0–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern München33 games · scored 117 · conceded 35
7
5
0-15
17
7
16-30
23
6
31-45
17
3
46-60
19
3
61-75
34
11
76-90
1.FC Köln33 games · scored 48 · conceded 58
9
6
0-15
5
8
16-30
4
11
31-45
7
8
46-60
4
14
61-75
19
11
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 31 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
7
5
31-45
7
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
10
2
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
4
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
46-60
3
6
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
