Bundesliga Gameweek 34 Sat, May 16 · 14:30 Allianz Arena, München
Bayern München 1st · 86 pts · 33 played
5–1Full time
1.FC Köln 14th · 32 pts · 33 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Bayern München85.3%fair odds 1.17
Draw8.9%fair odds 11.30
1.FC Köln5.9%fair odds 17.00
Expected goals3.97 – 1.15total 5.12
Likeliest score3–17.2%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Bayern München

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

1.FC Köln

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Bayern München ↓ · 1.FC Köln →0123456+
00.70.50.40.20.00.00.0
12.22.91.60.60.20.00.0
24.75.43.11.20.30.10.0
36.37.24.11.60.50.10.0
46.27.14.11.60.40.10.0
54.95.73.21.20.40.10.0
6+6.67.64.31.70.50.10.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayern München goals, columns 1.FC Köln goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 3–17.2%13.91
  • 4–17.1%14.01
  • 3–06.3%15.94
  • 4–06.2%16.06
  • 5–15.7%17.65
  • 2–15.4%18.41
  • 5–04.9%20.22
  • 2–04.7%21.10
  • 3–24.1%24.28
  • 4–24.1%24.45

Winning margin

54.0% Bayern München by 3+ fair 1.85
17.5% Bayern München by 2 fair 5.71
13.8% Bayern München by 1 fair 7.26
8.9% Draw fair 11.30
3.9% 1.FC Köln by 1 fair 25.83
1.5% 1.FC Köln by 2 fair 68.49
0.5% 1.FC Köln by 3+ fair 181.94

Goal distribution

Total goals

1%0
3%1
8%2
13%3
17%4
58%5+

Bayern München goals

2%0
8%1
15%2
20%3
56%4+

1.FC Köln goals

32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Bayern München win 85.3% 82.0% +3.2 pp
Draw 8.9% 10.9% -2.1 pp
1.FC Köln win 5.9% 7.0% -1.2 pp
Over 2.5 88.5% 82.6% +5.9 pp
Both teams score 67.1% 62.7% +4.3 pp
Expected goals Bayern München 3.97 3.46 +0.51
Expected goals 1.FC Köln 1.15 1.04 +0.11

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Bayern München win85.3%1.17
  • Draw8.9%11.30
  • 1.FC Köln win5.9%17.00
  • Double chance Bayern München or draw94.1%1.06
  • Double chance Bayern München or 1.FC Köln91.1%1.10
  • Double chance 1.FC Köln or draw14.7%6.79
  • Draw no bet Bayern München93.5%1.07
  • Draw no bet 1.FC Köln6.5%15.50

Goals

  • Over 0.599.3%1.01
  • Over 1.596.5%1.04
  • Over 2.588.5%1.13
  • Over 3.575.0%1.33
  • Over 4.557.9%1.73
  • Under 1.53.5%28.31
  • Under 2.511.5%8.66
  • Under 3.525.0%4.01

Both teams to score

  • Yes67.1%1.49
  • No32.9%3.04
  • Yes and over 2.564.2%1.56
  • Bayern München win and yes54.2%1.84
  • Draw and yes8.1%12.33
  • 1.FC Köln win and yes4.7%21.11

Team goals

  • Bayern München over 0.598.1%1.02
  • Bayern München over 1.590.6%1.10
  • Bayern München over 2.575.7%1.32
  • 1.FC Köln over 0.568.2%1.47
  • 1.FC Köln over 1.531.8%3.15
  • 1.FC Köln over 2.510.9%9.17
  • Bayern München clean sheet31.8%3.15
  • 1.FC Köln clean sheet1.9%52.88
  • Bayern München win to nil31.0%3.22
  • 1.FC Köln win to nil1.1%87.34

Handicap

  • Bayern München −1.571.5%1.40
  • Bayern München −2.554.0%1.85
  • 1.FC Köln +1.528.5%3.51
  • 1.FC Köln +2.546.0%2.17
  • 1.FC Köln −1.52.0%49.76
  • Bayern München +1.598.0%1.02

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored297 Favourite won55.6% Avg chance given to result43.1% 1X2 Brier0.567 Over 2.5 called right62.3% BTTS called right60.3%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3838.3%34.2%
40–50%9545.1%45.3%
50–60%7555.1%60.0%
60–70%4764.7%66.0%
70–80%2974.5%79.3%
80%+1387.2%76.9%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 240 of 297 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.56280.5582
Avg chance given to result43.3%42.7%
Favourite won56.7%55.4%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 240 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 297 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.