Bayern München vs Bayer Leverkusen – 1 Nov 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 9 Sat, Nov 1 · 17:30 Allianz Arena, München

Bayern München 1st · 24 pts · 8 played WWWWW

3–0Full time

Bayer Leverkusen 5th · 17 pts · 8 played DWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayern München were clear favourites.

Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 79). Bayern München had 7.2 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 6.1 and had to travel 461 km.

Away travel461 kmRest days7.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Bayern München65%

Draw20%

Bayer Leverkusen15%

Expected goals 2.29 – 1.04

Bayern München61%

Draw22%

Bayer Leverkusen17%

Expected goals 1.95 – 0.92

Bayern München64%

Draw20%

Bayer Leverkusen16%

Expected goals 2.26 – 1.04

Bayern München57%

Draw22%

Bayer Leverkusen21%

Expected goals 2.04 – 1.17

Bayern München62%

Draw22%

Bayer Leverkusen16%

Expected goals 1.98 – 0.92

Over 2.5 65% Both score 59% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (München)

No weather data yet

RefereeDeniz Aytekin

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 65

Team strength

Bayern München

Bayer Leverkusen

92 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

93 Current StrengthIn forecast 78

96 AttackIn forecast 87

90 DefenceIn forecast 79

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayern München

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayern München

Bayer Leverkusen

3.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.25

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

2.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.76

0.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

+1.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

100% Scored inContext 100%

63% Clean sheetsContext 25%

18.50 ShotsContext 13.50

8.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.25

47% On target shareContext 39%

12.13 Shots in the boxContext 8.63

67% Box shareContext 64%

20% ConversionContext 17%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.50

8.25 Shots allowedContext 11.63

2.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38

3.50 BlocksContext 2.43

1.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

77% Save rateContext 66%

65% PossessionIn forecast 58%

658 PassesContext 582

591 Accurate passesContext 513

90% Pass accuracyContext 88%

7.28 Team ratingContext 6.99

10.88 FoulsContext 11.38

10.63 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.63

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

3.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

2.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.87

0.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

+0.83 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

100% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

19.50 ShotsContext 13.30

9.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

47% On target shareContext 37%

13.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.70

69% Box shareContext 68%

19% ConversionContext 17%

2.25 OffsidesContext 1.86

7.40 Shots allowedContext 11.90

2.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.25 BlocksContext 2.89

1.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

74% Save rateContext 59%

64% PossessionIn forecast 55%

656 PassesContext 552

590 Accurate passesContext 488

90% Pass accuracyContext 88%

7.18 Team ratingContext 6.89

10.80 FoulsContext 11.00

9.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayern München

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,002 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bayer Leverkusen

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel461 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bayern München	Bayer Leverkusen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 25 Oct	6.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 26 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	461 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,002 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayern München Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Neuer(G)

20T. Bischof 4J. Tah 3M. Kim 27K. Laimer

8L. Goretzka 6J. Kimmich

7S. Gnabry 22R. Guerreiro 42Lennart Karl

11N. Jackson

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Bayer Leverkusen Confirmed XI

5-4-1

1M. Flekken(G)

44J. Belocian 12E. Tapsoba 5L. Badé 4J. Quansah 13Arthur

19E. Poku 24Aleix García 8R. Andrich 9C. Echeverri

14P. Schick

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bayern München Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bayer Leverkusen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bayern München+0.6 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Bayer Leverkusen-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Bayern München · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 4.25
Conceded: 0.25

Bayer Leverkusen · Away 2.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Bayern München	Bayer Leverkusen
Borussia Mönchengladbach	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 H
Eintracht Frankfurt	W 3–0 A	W 3–1 H
Werder Bremen	W 4–0 H	D 3–3 A
1899 Hoffenheim	W 4–1 A	L 1–2 H
Points	12 of 12 · 3.00 per game	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Bayern München wins4 draws2 Bayer Leverkusen wins

Goals per game1.90 – 1.00 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 20%

11 Mar 2025Bayer Leverkusen0–2Bayern München
5 Mar 2025Bayern München3–0Bayer Leverkusen
15 Feb 2025Bayer Leverkusen0–0Bayern München
28 Sep 2024Bayern München1–1Bayer Leverkusen
10 Feb 2024Bayer Leverkusen3–0Bayern München
15 Sep 2023Bayern München2–2Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bayern München	Bayer Leverkusen	Forecast
Scored per game	3.75	2.25
Conceded per game	0.50	1.38
Match goals	4.25	3.63	3.33
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	63%	65%
Over 3.5	63%	38%
Both teams scored	38%	75%	59%
Clean sheets	63%	25%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	8	8

	Bayern München	Bayer Leverkusen	Forecast
Scored per game	3.75	2.25
Conceded per game	0.50	1.38
Match goals	4.25	3.63	3.33
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	63%	65%
Over 3.5	63%	38%
Both teams scored	38%	75%	59%
Clean sheets	63%	25%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bayern München	Bayer Leverkusen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.63
Corners conceded	4.13	5.13
Match total	9.13	8.76	9.78
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.88
Opponent cards	1.75	3.50
Match total	4.25	6.38	4.41
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	88% 7/8
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	63% 5/8

	Bayern München	Bayer Leverkusen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	3.80
Corners conceded	3.20	4.90
Match total	8.80	8.70	9.78
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.80
Opponent cards	1.60	3.10
Match total	3.60	5.90	4.41
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Deniz Aytekin 65 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 4.22

Red cards0.22league 0.21

Cards 5+37%league 42%

Fouls22.9league 22.5

Penalties0.29league 0.37

Home wins35%league 41%

Bayern München7 with this referee

Record4-2-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds2

W4 Nov 23A · Borussia Dortmund4–02
W2 Sep 23A · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–12
L20 May 23H · RB Leipzig1–31
D8 Oct 22A · Borussia Dortmund2–26
W5 Aug 22A · Eintracht Frankfurt6–10

Bayer Leverkusen9 with this referee

Record5-2-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

W12 Sep 25H · Eintracht Frankfurt3–15
L11 May 25H · Borussia Dortmund2–40
W30 Mar 24H · 1899 Hoffenheim2–10
D27 Jan 24H · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–03
D10 Dec 23A · VfB Stuttgart1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.