Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayern München
1st · 24 pts · 8 played
WWWWW
3–0Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
5th · 17 pts · 8 played
DWWWW
Bayern München64.9%fair odds 1.54
Draw19.7%fair odds 5.08
Bayer Leverkusen15.4%fair odds 6.49
Expected goals2.29 – 1.04total 3.33
Likeliest score2–19.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayer Leverkusen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayern München ↓ · Bayer Leverkusen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayern München goals, columns Bayer Leverkusen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%10.24
- 2–09.4%10.66
- 1–19.0%11.13
- 1–07.8%12.90
- 3–17.4%13.43
- 3–07.2%13.97
- 2–25.1%19.69
- 1–24.4%22.53
- 4–14.3%23.48
- 4–04.1%24.43
Winning margin
23.2%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 4.30
19.4%
Bayern München by 2
fair 5.15
22.3%
Bayern München by 1
fair 4.49
19.7%
Draw
fair 5.08
9.9%
Bayer Leverkusen by 1
fair 10.13
4.0%
Bayer Leverkusen by 2
fair 24.88
1.5%
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+
fair 65.65
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Bayern München goals
10%0
23%1
27%2
20%3
20%4+
Bayer Leverkusen goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München win | 64.9% | 61.6% | +3.3 pp |
| Draw | 19.7% | 22.2% | -2.5 pp |
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 15.4% | 16.2% | -0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.6% | 55.3% | +9.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.6% | 52.2% | +6.3 pp |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 2.29 | 1.98 | +0.31 |
| Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen | 1.04 | 0.92 | +0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayern München win64.9%1.54
- Draw19.7%5.08
- Bayer Leverkusen win15.4%6.49
- Double chance Bayern München or draw84.6%1.18
- Double chance Bayern München or Bayer Leverkusen80.3%1.24
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw35.1%2.85
- Draw no bet Bayern München80.8%1.24
- Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen19.2%5.21
Goals
- Over 0.596.0%1.04
- Over 1.584.9%1.18
- Over 2.564.6%1.55
- Over 3.542.6%2.35
- Over 4.524.3%4.12
- Under 1.515.1%6.64
- Under 2.535.4%2.83
- Under 3.557.4%1.74
Both teams to score
- Yes58.6%1.71
- No41.4%2.41
- Yes and over 2.549.6%2.02
- Bayern München win and yes33.6%2.97
- Draw and yes15.6%6.40
- Bayer Leverkusen win and yes9.3%10.75
Team goals
- Bayern München over 0.589.9%1.11
- Bayern München over 1.566.6%1.50
- Bayern München over 2.540.1%2.50
- Bayer Leverkusen over 0.564.7%1.55
- Bayer Leverkusen over 1.527.9%3.58
- Bayer Leverkusen over 2.58.8%11.38
- Bayern München clean sheet35.3%2.83
- Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet10.1%9.85
- Bayern München win to nil31.3%3.20
- Bayer Leverkusen win to nil6.1%16.37
Handicap
- Bayern München −1.542.7%2.34
- Bayern München −2.523.2%4.30
- Bayer Leverkusen +1.557.3%1.74
- Bayer Leverkusen +2.576.8%1.30
- Bayer Leverkusen −1.55.5%18.05
- Bayern München +1.594.5%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored78
Favourite won56.4%
Avg chance given to result43.7%
1X2 Brier0.541
Over 2.5 called right60.3%
BTTS called right53.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 38.1% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 23 | 45.1% | 39.1% |
| 50–60% | 18 | 54.5% | 55.6% |
| 60–70% | 15 | 65.6% | 86.7% |
| 70–80% | 7 | 73.5% | 71.4% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 60 of 78 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5112 | 0.5254 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.1% | 43.9% |
| Favourite won | 60.0% | 60.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 60 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 78 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.