Bayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayern München
1st · 18 pts · 6 played
WWWWW
2–1Full time
Borussia Dortmund
4th · 14 pts · 6 played
WWWWD
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 82). Bayern München had 14 days of rest, Borussia Dortmund 14.1 and had to travel 477 km.
Away travel477 kmRest days14 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Bayern München60%
Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund19%
Bayern München57%
Draw24%
Borussia Dortmund19%
Bayern München60%
Draw21%
Borussia Dortmund18%
Bayern München52%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund24%
Bayern München58%
Draw23%
Borussia Dortmund19%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyBastian Dankert
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 66
Team strength
Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
92
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
96
AttackIn forecast
69
90
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Dortmund
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayern MünchenBorussia Dortmund
4.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
2.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
0.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.81
+1.73
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
100%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
18.00
ShotsContext
12.00
8.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.17
49%
On target shareContext
43%
11.83
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
66%
Box shareContext
73%
23%
ConversionContext
17%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.50
Shots allowedContext
9.33
2.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.83
3.60
BlocksContext
2.17
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
77%
Save rateContext
75%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
640
PassesContext
558
572
Accurate passesContext
486
89%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.38
Team ratingContext
7.05
10.67
FoulsContext
12.00
11.83
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
3.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
0.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+1.51
Goals minus xGContext
+1.07
100%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
18.40
ShotsContext
12.20
8.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
46%
On target shareContext
44%
11.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
64%
Box shareContext
66%
21%
ConversionContext
22%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.88
9.40
Shots allowedContext
10.40
2.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.89
BlocksContext
3.00
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
85%
Save rateContext
71%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
644
PassesContext
538
577
Accurate passesContext
466
90%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.33
Team ratingContext
7.10
9.20
FoulsContext
11.40
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km609 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Borussia Dortmund
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel477 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
Borussia Dortmund |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 14.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 477 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 609 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
27K. Laimer
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
23S. Boey
45A. Pavlović
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
9H. Kane
17M. Olise
11N. Jackson
Borussia Dortmund
Confirmed XI
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
25N. Süle
24D. Svensson
20M. Sabitzer
13P. Groß
26J. Ryerson
8F. Nmecha
27K. Adeyemi
9S. Guirassy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Borussia Dortmund
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Borussia Dortmund+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 5.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Borussia Dortmund · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | W 6–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Bayern München wins3 draws1 Borussia Dortmund wins
Goals per game2.38 – 1.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 13%
- 12 Apr 2025Bayern München2–2Borussia Dortmund
- 30 Nov 2024Borussia Dortmund1–1Bayern München
- 30 Mar 2024Bayern München0–2Borussia Dortmund
- 4 Nov 2023Borussia Dortmund0–4Bayern München
- 1 Apr 2023Bayern München4–2Borussia Dortmund
- 8 Oct 2022Borussia Dortmund2–2Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.17 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 4.67 | 2.67 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 83% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.17 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 4.67 | 2.67 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 83% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 9.50 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.50 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Bayern München | Borussia Dortmund | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.38 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.88 | 10.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.20 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastian Dankert Germany · 66 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.53league 4.30
Red cards0.17league 0.23
Cards 5+32%league 43%
Fouls24.3league 22.9
Penalties0.21league 0.43
Home wins47%league 40%
Bayern München6 with this referee
Record5-1-0
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W26 Apr 25H · FSV Mainz 053–02
- W21 Sep 24A · Werder Bremen5–03
- W12 May 24H · VfL Wolfsburg2–00
- D15 Apr 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–12
- W5 Nov 22A · Hertha BSC3–20
Borussia Dortmund3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Feb 25H · Union Berlin6–02
- D2 Feb 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim0–02
- W13 Mar 22H · Arminia Bielefeld1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern München6 games · scored 25 · conceded 3
3
0-15
6
16-30
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
Borussia Dortmund6 games · scored 12 · conceded 4
1
0-15
3
16-30
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 39 · conceded 5
4
0-15
9
1
16-30
9
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
6
61-75
8
2
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 27 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
7
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
6
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
