Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayern München
1st · 18 pts · 6 played
WWWWW
2–1Full time
Borussia Dortmund
4th · 14 pts · 6 played
WWWWD
Bayern München60.5%fair odds 1.65
Draw21.0%fair odds 4.76
Borussia Dortmund18.5%fair odds 5.40
Expected goals2.17 – 1.14total 3.31
Likeliest score2–19.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Borussia Dortmund
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayern München ↓ · Borussia Dortmund → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayern München goals, columns Borussia Dortmund goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%10.20
- 1–19.5%10.53
- 2–08.6%11.59
- 1–07.5%13.40
- 3–17.1%14.08
- 3–06.3%16.00
- 2–25.6%17.96
- 1–25.1%19.51
- 0–04.1%24.20
- 3–24.0%24.79
Winning margin
19.9%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 5.02
18.3%
Bayern München by 2
fair 5.46
22.2%
Bayern München by 1
fair 4.50
21.0%
Draw
fair 4.76
11.4%
Borussia Dortmund by 1
fair 8.77
5.0%
Borussia Dortmund by 2
fair 19.97
2.1%
Borussia Dortmund by 3+
fair 47.32
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Bayern München goals
11%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
18%4+
Borussia Dortmund goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München win | 60.5% | 57.6% | +2.9 pp |
| Draw | 21.0% | 23.3% | -2.3 pp |
| Borussia Dortmund win | 18.5% | 19.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.2% | 55.4% | +8.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.6% | 54.4% | +6.2 pp |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 2.17 | 1.89 | +0.28 |
| Expected goals Borussia Dortmund | 1.14 | 1.01 | +0.13 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayern München win60.5%1.65
- Draw21.0%4.76
- Borussia Dortmund win18.5%5.40
- Double chance Bayern München or draw81.5%1.23
- Double chance Bayern München or Borussia Dortmund79.0%1.27
- Double chance Borussia Dortmund or draw39.5%2.53
- Draw no bet Bayern München76.6%1.31
- Draw no bet Borussia Dortmund23.4%4.27
Goals
- Over 0.595.9%1.04
- Over 1.584.7%1.18
- Over 2.564.2%1.56
- Over 3.542.2%2.37
- Over 4.523.9%4.18
- Under 1.515.3%6.55
- Under 2.535.8%2.80
- Under 3.557.8%1.73
Both teams to score
- Yes60.6%1.65
- No39.4%2.54
- Yes and over 2.551.1%1.96
- Bayern München win and yes32.5%3.08
- Draw and yes16.9%5.93
- Borussia Dortmund win and yes11.3%8.87
Team goals
- Bayern München over 0.588.6%1.13
- Bayern München over 1.563.9%1.57
- Bayern München over 2.537.0%2.70
- Borussia Dortmund over 0.567.9%1.47
- Borussia Dortmund over 1.531.4%3.18
- Borussia Dortmund over 2.510.7%9.35
- Bayern München clean sheet32.1%3.11
- Borussia Dortmund clean sheet11.4%8.79
- Bayern München win to nil28.0%3.57
- Borussia Dortmund win to nil7.2%13.79
Handicap
- Bayern München −1.538.2%2.61
- Bayern München −2.519.9%5.02
- Borussia Dortmund +1.561.8%1.62
- Borussia Dortmund +2.580.1%1.25
- Borussia Dortmund −1.57.1%14.04
- Bayern München +1.592.9%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored60
Favourite won53.3%
Avg chance given to result42.5%
1X2 Brier0.568
Over 2.5 called right63.3%
BTTS called right58.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 10 | 38.3% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 19 | 45.2% | 36.8% |
| 50–60% | 13 | 54.5% | 46.2% |
| 60–70% | 13 | 66.4% | 84.6% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.8% | 50.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 42 of 60 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5366 | 0.5456 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.9% | 42.8% |
| Favourite won | 57.1% | 59.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 42 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 60 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.