Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayern München
1st · 31 pts · 11 played
WWWDW
3–1Full time
FC St. Pauli
16th · 7 pts · 11 played
LLLLL
Bayern München93.0%fair odds 1.08
Draw5.2%fair odds 19.07
FC St. Pauli1.8%fair odds 56.21
Expected goals4.03 – 0.56total 4.60
Likeliest score4–011.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FC St. Pauli
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayern München ↓ · FC St. Pauli → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.0 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 12.4 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayern München goals, columns FC St. Pauli goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 4–011.1%8.98
- 3–011.0%9.05
- 5–09.0%11.12
- 2–08.2%12.17
- 4–16.3%15.90
- 3–16.2%16.03
- 6–06.0%16.55
- 5–15.1%19.71
- 2–14.6%21.56
- 1–04.0%25.31
Winning margin
65.7%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 1.52
16.5%
Bayern München by 2
fair 6.05
10.7%
Bayern München by 1
fair 9.32
5.2%
Draw
fair 19.07
1.4%
FC St. Pauli by 1
fair 71.64
0.3%
FC St. Pauli by 2
fair 309.05
0.1%
FC St. Pauli by 3+
fair 1,684.44
Goal distribution
Total goals
1%0
4%1
11%2
16%3
19%4
48%5+
Bayern München goals
2%0
7%1
14%2
19%3
57%4+
FC St. Pauli goals
57%0
32%1
9%2
2%3
0%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München win | 93.0% | 90.9% | +2.1 pp |
| Draw | 5.2% | 6.9% | -1.7 pp |
| FC St. Pauli win | 1.8% | 2.2% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 83.7% | 77.1% | +6.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 42.5% | 39.0% | +3.5 pp |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 4.03 | 3.56 | +0.48 |
| Expected goals FC St. Pauli | 0.56 | 0.51 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayern München win93.0%1.08
- Draw5.2%19.07
- FC St. Pauli win1.8%56.21
- Double chance Bayern München or draw98.2%1.02
- Double chance Bayern München or FC St. Pauli94.8%1.06
- Double chance FC St. Pauli or draw7.0%14.24
- Draw no bet Bayern München98.1%1.02
- Draw no bet FC St. Pauli1.9%53.27
Goals
- Over 0.598.9%1.01
- Over 1.594.5%1.06
- Over 2.583.7%1.20
- Over 3.567.3%1.49
- Over 4.548.5%2.06
- Under 1.55.5%18.08
- Under 2.516.3%6.12
- Under 3.532.7%3.06
Both teams to score
- Yes42.5%2.35
- No57.5%1.74
- Yes and over 2.540.1%2.50
- Bayern München win and yes37.2%2.69
- Draw and yes4.1%24.31
- FC St. Pauli win and yes1.1%88.12
Team goals
- Bayern München over 0.598.2%1.02
- Bayern München over 1.591.1%1.10
- Bayern München over 2.576.6%1.31
- FC St. Pauli over 0.543.1%2.32
- FC St. Pauli over 1.511.0%9.06
- FC St. Pauli over 2.52.0%50.62
- Bayern München clean sheet56.9%1.76
- FC St. Pauli clean sheet1.8%56.32
- Bayern München win to nil55.7%1.79
- FC St. Pauli win to nil0.6%155.26
Handicap
- Bayern München −1.582.3%1.22
- Bayern München −2.565.7%1.52
- FC St. Pauli +1.517.7%5.63
- FC St. Pauli +2.534.3%2.92
- FC St. Pauli −1.50.4%261.13
- Bayern München +1.599.6%1.00
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored100
Favourite won59.0%
Avg chance given to result44.1%
1X2 Brier0.535
Over 2.5 called right62.0%
BTTS called right57.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 15 | 38.1% | 46.7% |
| 40–50% | 32 | 45.1% | 43.8% |
| 50–60% | 23 | 54.7% | 60.9% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 65.5% | 84.2% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 74.5% | 70.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 82 of 100 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5123 | 0.5251 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.2% | 44.1% |
| Favourite won | 62.2% | 62.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 82 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 RB Leipzig29·26·45
- ✓FC St. Pauli 0–1 Union Berlin32·27·41
- ✓RB Leipzig 2–0 Werder Bremen54·24·22
- ✓1.FC Köln 3–4 Eintracht Frankfurt28·25·46
- ✓1. FC Heidenheim 0–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach35·27·38
- ✓FC Augsburg 1–0 Hamburger SV48·25·27
- ✗Borussia Dortmund 3–3 VfB Stuttgart59·22·19
- ✓VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 Bayer Leverkusen20·23·57
- ✓Bayern München 6–2 SC Freiburg77·15·8
- ✗FSV Mainz 05 1–1 1899 Hoffenheim45·26·30
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 100 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.