Bayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Bayern München
1st · 31 pts · 11 played
WWWDW
3–1Full time
FC St. Pauli
16th · 7 pts · 11 played
LLLLL
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 23). Absences weigh more on FC St. Pauli. Bayern München had 7 days of rest, FC St. Pauli 5.9 and had to travel 612 km.
Away travel612 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Bayern München93%
Draw5%
FC St. Pauli2%
Bayern München90%
Draw7%
FC St. Pauli2%
Bayern München92%
Draw6%
FC St. Pauli2%
Bayern München89%
Draw8%
FC St. Pauli3%
Bayern München91%
Draw7%
FC St. Pauli2%
Over 2.5 84%
Both score 42%
Likeliest score 4–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFelix Zwayer
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 112
Team strength
Bayern MünchenFC St. Pauli
92
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
96
AttackIn forecast
20
90
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC St. Pauli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Bayern MünchenFC St. Pauli
3.73
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.82
0.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.91
2.26
xGVia Att/Def
0.88
0.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+1.47
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
100%
Scored inContext
45%
55%
Clean sheetsContext
9%
18.00
ShotsContext
11.36
7.73
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.82
43%
On target shareContext
34%
11.91
Shots in the boxContext
6.27
67%
Box shareContext
54%
21%
ConversionContext
7%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.67
8.45
Shots allowedContext
10.27
2.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.36
3.33
BlocksContext
3.13
1.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.55
72%
Save rateContext
66%
66%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
673
PassesContext
490
604
Accurate passesContext
396
90%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.21
Team ratingContext
6.69
10.36
FoulsContext
11.18
9.36
Fouls sufferedContext
10.82
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
2.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.96
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
100%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
16.70
ShotsContext
11.40
6.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
41%
On target shareContext
31%
12.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
71%
Box shareContext
53%
19%
ConversionContext
5%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.00
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
2.71
BlocksContext
3.13
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
74%
Save rateContext
67%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
648
PassesContext
491
580
Accurate passesContext
396
89%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.68
10.50
FoulsContext
11.00
7.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC St. Pauli
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel612 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
FC St. Pauli |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 5.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 612 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
20T. Bischof
4J. Tah
3M. Kim
27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
22R. Guerreiro
42Lennart Karl
9H. Kane
FC St. Pauli
Confirmed XI
22N. Vasilj(G)
21L. Ritzka
3K. Mets
8E. Smith
5H. Wahl
11Arkadiusz Pyrka
28M. Pereira Lage
7J. Irvine
6J. Sands
16J. Fujita
27A. Hountondji
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC St. Pauli
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- FC St. Pauli-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
3.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-0-0
- Scored
- 4.33
- Conceded
- 0.50
FC St. Pauli · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-4
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Bayern München | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | W 6–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Union Berlin | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Bayer Leverkusen | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–0 A | L 0–4 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | W 2–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | W 3–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Werder Bremen | W 4–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | W 4–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Hamburger SV | W 5–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| FC Augsburg | W 3–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 28 of 30 · 2.80 per game | 7 of 30 · 0.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Bayern München wins0 draws0 FC St. Pauli wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 29 Mar 2025Bayern München3–2FC St. Pauli
- 9 Nov 2024FC St. Pauli0–1Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.73 | 0.82 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.73 | 1.91 | |
| Match goals | 4.45 | 2.73 | 4.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 82% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 55% | 84% |
| Over 3.5 | 64% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 36% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 55% | 9% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 55% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Bayern München | FC St. Pauli | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.50 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.30 | 2.40 | 4.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 84% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.18 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.36 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 9.54 | 9.00 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 6/11 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 55% 6/11 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 3/11 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.27 | 1.73 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.55 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 3.82 | 4.00 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 6/11 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 5/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Bayern München | FC St. Pauli | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 9.22 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.80 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Felix Zwayer Germany · 112 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.72league 3.95
Red cards0.15league 0.20
Cards 5+54%league 40%
Fouls21.8league 21.7
Penalties0.30league 0.35
Home wins46%league 44%
Bayern München9 with this referee
Record4-2-3
Cards · opp.1.1 · 2.1
Pens for · against2 · 0
- D3 May 25A · RB Leipzig3–31
- W11 Jan 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach1–01
- D28 Sep 24H · Bayer Leverkusen1–11
- L10 Feb 24A · Bayer Leverkusen0–32
- L9 Dec 23A · Eintracht Frankfurt1–52
FC St. Pauli4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L17 May 25H · VfL Bochum0–20
- L22 Feb 25A · FSV Mainz 050–23
- W29 Nov 24H · Holstein Kiel3–12
- L15 Sep 24A · FC Augsburg1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern München11 games · scored 41 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
9
2
16-30
9
31-45
4
1
46-60
6
61-75
10
4
76-90
FC St. Pauli11 games · scored 9 · conceded 21
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 31 · conceded 10
5
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
9
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
FC St. Pauli10 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
6
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
