Bayern München
Attack−8%
Defense risk+27%
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 69). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for RB Leipzig. Bayern München were without M. Neuer. RB Leipzig were without C. Baumgartner. Bayern München had 3.9 days of rest, RB Leipzig 3.9 and had to travel 361 km. Weather to note: heavy rain.
Away travel361 kmRest days3.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Bayern München79%
Draw12%
RB Leipzig9%
Bayern München72%
Draw18%
RB Leipzig10%
Bayern München79%
Draw12%
RB Leipzig9%
Bayern München71%
Draw15%
RB Leipzig14%
Bayern München75%
Draw14%
RB Leipzig11%
Over 2.5 87%
Both score 72%
Likeliest score 3–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (München)
Heavy rain
13°CRain
- Precipitation 4.9 mm
- Wind 11 km/h
- Humidity 90%
Referee · GermanyTobias Stieler
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 114
Team strength
Bayern München
RB Leipzig
94
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
93
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
96
AttackIn forecast
76
90
DefenceIn forecast
53
77
Form indexContext
74
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack−33%
Defense risk+99%
Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig
3.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
3.52
xGVia Att/Def
2.40
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
23.20
ShotsContext
19.00
9.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
39%
On target shareContext
37%
14.00
Shots in the boxContext
14.00
61%
Box shareContext
72%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.00
7.00
Shots allowedContext
14.60
2.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
2.67
BlocksContext
3.00
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
75%
Save rateContext
83%
70%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
714
PassesContext
528
642
Accurate passesContext
462
90%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.32
Team ratingContext
7.29
9.60
FoulsContext
10.60
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
0.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
3.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.96
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
21.70
ShotsContext
16.70
8.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
40%
On target shareContext
36%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.90
61%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.17
8.50
Shots allowedContext
13.60
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.67
BlocksContext
2.80
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
73%
Save rateContext
66%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
683
PassesContext
508
614
Accurate passesContext
445
90%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.23
Team ratingContext
7.01
8.20
FoulsContext
9.80
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Bayern München
WWWDD
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,640 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 77 · 11 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
RB Leipzig
LWLWW
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel361 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Bayern München |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct | 3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 361 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,640 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 2 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
40J. Urbig(G)
11N. Brown
3M. Kim
2D. Upamecano
27K. Laimer
45A. Pavlović
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
34I. Saibari
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
RB Leipzig
Confirmed XI
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
16L. Klostermann
7A. Nusa
6E. Banzuzi
21N. El Aynaoui
20R. Reitz
10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Bayern München
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals
Attack line −4.4% · Defence line −9.7% of weighted minutes
- DEF M. Neuer Starter 6.90 Def −9.7%
- ATT J. Musiala Rotation 6.86 Att −4.4%
RB Leipzig
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −11.4% · Defence line −6.7% of weighted minutes
- MID C. Baumgartner Starter 6.89 Att −8.4% Def −5.7%
- MID A. Ouédraogo Rotation 6.86 Att −1.5% Def −1.0%
- ATT Marc Guiu Rotation 6.18 Att −1.6%
Total impact vs full squads
- Bayern München+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- RB Leipzig-0.1 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Bayern München · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 6.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
RB Leipzig · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
6 Bayern München wins3 draws1 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game3.20 – 1.50
Over 2.590%
Both scored90%
Clean sheets10% · 0%
- 17 Jan 2026RB Leipzig1–5Bayern München
- 22 Aug 2025Bayern München6–0RB Leipzig
- 3 May 2025RB Leipzig3–3Bayern München
- 20 Dec 2024Bayern München5–1RB Leipzig
- 24 Feb 2024Bayern München2–1RB Leipzig
- 30 Sep 2023RB Leipzig2–2Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Bayern München | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.20 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 87% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% | 72% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Bayern München | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.30 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 3.90 | 4.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 80% | 87% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 72% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Bayern München | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 12.25 | 12.00 | 10.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 4/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 4/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Bayern München | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.33 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 11.66 | 10.10 | 10.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 2.90 | 3.60 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Tobias Stieler Germany · 114 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.51
Red cards0.19league 0.10
Cards 5+33%league 20%
Fouls21.7league 23.0
Penalties0.32league 0.22
Home wins52%league 51%
Bayern München10 with this referee
Record8-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against4 · 2
- W11 Apr 26A · FC St. Pauli5–02
- W8 Feb 26H · 1899 Hoffenheim5–12
- W6 Dec 25A · VfB Stuttgart5–04
- W13 Sep 25H · Hamburger SV5–02
- W19 Oct 24H · VfB Stuttgart4–00
RB Leipzig6 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Jan 26A · 1. FC Heidenheim3–00
- L29 Mar 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach0–12
- L2 Nov 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–24
- W29 Apr 23H · 1899 Hoffenheim1–00
- D7 Aug 22A · VfB Stuttgart1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Bayern München5 games · scored 16 · conceded 4
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
76-90
RB Leipzig5 games · scored 15 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 31 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
8
1
46-60
6
2
61-75
9
1
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
