Bayern München
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Bayern München72.9%fair odds 1.37
Draw16.0%fair odds 6.24
VfB Stuttgart11.0%fair odds 9.07
Expected goals2.68 – 0.98total 3.66
Likeliest score2–09.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
VfB Stuttgart
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Bayern München ↓ · VfB Stuttgart → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Bayern München goals, columns VfB Stuttgart goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–09.2%10.85
- 2–19.1%11.04
- 3–08.2%12.15
- 3–18.1%12.36
- 1–17.1%14.05
- 1–06.5%15.35
- 4–05.5%18.13
- 4–15.4%18.44
- 2–24.5%22.46
- 3–24.0%25.14
Winning margin
31.9%
Bayern München by 3+
fair 3.13
20.5%
Bayern München by 2
fair 4.88
20.5%
Bayern München by 1
fair 4.87
16.0%
Draw
fair 6.24
7.3%
VfB Stuttgart by 1
fair 13.68
2.8%
VfB Stuttgart by 2
fair 36.28
1.0%
VfB Stuttgart by 3+
fair 104.58
Goal distribution
Total goals
3%0
9%1
18%2
21%3
19%4
31%5+
Bayern München goals
7%0
18%1
25%2
22%3
28%4+
VfB Stuttgart goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München win | 72.9% | 70.8% | +2.2 pp |
| Draw | 16.0% | 17.5% | -1.5 pp |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 11.0% | 11.7% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 70.8% | 65.9% | +5.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.6% | 55.6% | +3.1 pp |
| Expected goals Bayern München | 2.68 | 2.47 | +0.21 |
| Expected goals VfB Stuttgart | 0.98 | 0.92 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Bayern München win72.9%1.37
- Draw16.0%6.24
- VfB Stuttgart win11.0%9.07
- Double chance Bayern München or draw89.0%1.12
- Double chance Bayern München or VfB Stuttgart84.0%1.19
- Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw27.1%3.70
- Draw no bet Bayern München86.9%1.15
- Draw no bet VfB Stuttgart13.1%7.62
Goals
- Over 0.597.1%1.03
- Over 1.588.4%1.13
- Over 2.570.8%1.41
- Over 3.549.8%2.01
- Over 4.530.6%3.27
- Under 1.511.6%8.62
- Under 2.529.2%3.43
- Under 3.550.2%1.99
Both teams to score
- Yes58.6%1.71
- No41.4%2.42
- Yes and over 2.551.5%1.94
- Bayern München win and yes38.4%2.60
- Draw and yes13.1%7.63
- VfB Stuttgart win and yes7.1%14.10
Team goals
- Bayern München over 0.593.1%1.07
- Bayern München over 1.574.8%1.34
- Bayern München over 2.550.2%1.99
- VfB Stuttgart over 0.562.6%1.60
- VfB Stuttgart over 1.525.8%3.88
- VfB Stuttgart over 2.57.7%12.95
- Bayern München clean sheet37.4%2.67
- VfB Stuttgart clean sheet6.9%14.59
- Bayern München win to nil34.5%2.90
- VfB Stuttgart win to nil3.9%25.44
Handicap
- Bayern München −1.552.4%1.91
- Bayern München −2.531.9%3.13
- VfB Stuttgart +1.547.6%2.10
- VfB Stuttgart +2.568.1%1.47
- VfB Stuttgart −1.53.7%26.94
- Bayern München +1.596.3%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2026-2027
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.