Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart – 28 Aug 2026

Bundesliga Gameweek 1 Fri, Aug 28 · 19:30 Fußball Arena München, München

Bayern München

5–1Full time

VfB Stuttgart

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayern München were clear favourites.

Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 70). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for VfB Stuttgart. Bayern München had 104.2 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 104.2 and had to travel 191 km. Weather to note: thunderstorm.

Away travel191 kmRest days104.2 · 104.2Matches / 14d0 · 0

Bayern München73%

Draw15%

VfB Stuttgart11%

Expected goals 2.68 – 0.98

Bayern München73%

Draw17%

VfB Stuttgart10%

Expected goals 2.34 – 0.77

Bayern München73%

Draw15%

VfB Stuttgart12%

Expected goals 2.69 – 0.99

Bayern München66%

Draw18%

VfB Stuttgart16%

Expected goals 2.39 – 1.10

Bayern München71%

Draw17%

VfB Stuttgart12%

Expected goals 2.47 – 0.92

Over 2.5 71% Both score 58% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (München)

19°CThunderstorm

Precipitation 2.3 mm
Wind 11 km/h
Humidity 77%

Thunderstorm

Referee · GermanySören Storks

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 34

Team strength

Bayern München

VfB Stuttgart

94 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

93 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

96 AttackIn forecast 70

90 DefenceIn forecast 58

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayern München

Attack—

Defense risk—

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Bayern München

VfB Stuttgart

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

3.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

2.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

1.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

+0.80 Goals minus xGContext +0.28

100% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

18.20 ShotsContext 15.30

7.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

41% On target shareContext 39%

12.20 Shots in the boxContext 9.80

69% Box shareContext 65%

18% ConversionContext 14%

2.67 OffsidesContext 2.43

12.90 Shots allowedContext 12.60

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

3.50 BlocksContext 3.50

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

74% Save rateContext 66%

67% PossessionIn forecast 56%

650 PassesContext 475

583 Accurate passesContext 394

90% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.10 Team ratingContext 6.97

8.00 FoulsContext 9.60

9.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayern München

Rest104.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

VfB Stuttgart

Rest104.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel191 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bayern München	VfB Stuttgart
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	104.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 16 May	104.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 16 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	191 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayern München Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Neuer(G)

19A. Davies 3M. Kim 2D. Upamecano 27K. Laimer

45A. Pavlović 6J. Kimmich

14L. Díaz 11N. Brown 17M. Olise

9H. Kane

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1F. Bredlow(G)

3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch

7M. Mittelstädt 6A. Stiller 21G. Prömel 4J. Vagnoman

26D. Undav 17D. Pejčinović

8Tiago Tomás

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bayern München Absences are shown before kick-off

VfB Stuttgart Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Bayern München+0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
VfB Stuttgart-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Bayern München · Home No home games yet this season.

VfB Stuttgart · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

7 Bayern München wins2 draws1 VfB Stuttgart wins

Goals per game3.10 – 1.10 Over 2.5100% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%

19 Apr 2026Bayern München4–2VfB Stuttgart
6 Dec 2025VfB Stuttgart0–5Bayern München
28 Feb 2025VfB Stuttgart1–3Bayern München
19 Oct 2024Bayern München4–0VfB Stuttgart
4 May 2024VfB Stuttgart3–1Bayern München
17 Dec 2023Bayern München3–0VfB Stuttgart

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bayern München	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.66
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	71%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Bayern München	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	3.40	2.10
Conceded per game	1.30	1.70
Match goals	4.70	3.80	3.66
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	60%	71%
Over 3.5	80%	60%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	58%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bayern München	VfB Stuttgart
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Bayern München	VfB Stuttgart
Corners
Corners won	6.30	6.60
Corners conceded	4.40	4.50
Match total	10.70	11.10
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.00
Opponent cards	1.70	1.80
Match total	3.30	3.80
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sören Storks Germany · 34 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.29

Red cards0.24

Cards 5+53%

Fouls20.6

Penalties0.24

Home wins44%

Bayern München3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.0 Pens for · against2 · 0

W19 Apr 26H · VfB Stuttgart4–20
W7 Feb 25H · Werder Bremen3–01
W7 Dec 24H · 1. FC Heidenheim4–21

VfB Stuttgart3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L19 Apr 26A · Bayern München2–40
W25 Jan 26A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–01
L30 Nov 25A · Hamburger SV1–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.